EXPLAINING THE UNITED STATES' INDUSTRIAL GROWTH, 1860–1991: ENDOGENOUS VERSUS EXOGENOUS MODELS

This paper considers the historical record and time series properties of United States' industrial production for the period 1860 to 1991, utilizing unit root tests and measures of persistence. The results identify a segmented trend model which is used to assess the time-series simulation performance of four well-known models of economic growth: Solow (1957); Mankiw, Romer and Weil (MRW, 1992); Barro and Sala i Martin (BSM, 1992); and Rebelo (1991). Both the MRW and BSM models dominate the Solow model in accounting for twentieth century industrial growth, highlighting the importance of human capital, and the paper suggests a new measure related to higher education. However, the Rebelo model explains the post-1973 slowdown more successfully than either of the 'augmented-Solow' approaches. The paper concludes with a discussion of the impact of shocks on US industrial growth.     

The Geography of Inventiveness in the Primary Sector: Some Initial Results for New Zealand, 1880–1895

At the turn of the twentieth century, New Zealand was one of the wealthiest nations in the world on a per capita basis. We examine the role of innovation in explaining New Zealand's economic performance. Using a new dataset on patent applications for the period 1880–95, we consider whether the geographical concentration of innovative activity influenced economic activity. We find relationships between agricultural and pastoral output indices and inventiveness and between different regions and related industries. The results, however, are relatively weak. We conclude that tests of agglomeration effects in New Zealand during this period deserve further attention.     

Transport and Tourism: Cycle Tourism – A Model for Sustainable Development?

Whilst the relationship between transport and tourism has been a subject of discussion in the literature, research has focused primarily on an evaluation of transport as a means to an end rather than as a contextual component of the tourism offering, especially at the destination. This paper evaluates the concept of a planned sustainable transport network, the National Cycle Network in the UK, as a potential model for the integration of transport, tourism and recreation. The paper concludes by exploring a number of implications, which may be considered when developing similar tourism transport networks. A model of sustainable transport development is presented.     

China's energy economy: A survey of the literature

This paper reviews the literature on China's energy economy, focusing particularly on: (i) the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth; (ii) China's changing energy intensity; (iii) energy demand and energy-non-energy substitution; (iv) the emergence of energy markets in China; and (v) economic reforms in the energy industry. After reviewing the literature, the paper presents the main findings that some important issues remain unanswered, for example, what determines energy consumption behavior; the effects of substitution of and demand for energy; and technological change effects on energy intensity. Finally, the review suggests some topics worthy of future study.     

Guest Editorial

This is an empirical and quantitative study of the validity of four kinds of distal explanatory factors in risk perception. In an initial study, personality constructs (Five Factor Model, Myers-Briggs Indicator of Jungian constructs and risk attitudes) were related to risk perception data (26 hazards). A relationship was found between emotional stability and risk perception, but none with Jungian constructs. One risk attitude dimension, 'Macho' risk willingness, was (negatively) related to demand for governmental risk mitigation. In a second study with a different sample, indices were constructed to measure the four World Views according to Cultural Theory (CT) as well as Group/Grid dimensions, New Age beliefs and the New Environmental Paradigm (NEP) dimensions of Dunlap et al . Risk perception data were obtained with regard to 37 hazards, both general and personal risk. The respondents were a large representative sample of the Swedish population. Only about 5% of the variance of perceived risk was accounted for by Cultural Theory dimensions, considerably more by New Age beliefs and one of the NEP scales (eco-crisis). In a third study, data from the five Nordic countries were used to analyse the relationships between CT dimensions and risk perception. Only weak relations were found. The results are discussed in relation to other current work on models of risk perception and the question of what should be considered 'strong' evidence for a theory.     

Holiday travel discourses and climate change

Current analyses highlight the relatively high contribution of holiday travel to greenhouse gas emissions. One response has been a growing ‘slow travel’ movement. Slow travel is an emerging concept which can be explained as an alternative to air and car travel where people travel to destinations more slowly overland and travel less distance. At first glance, slow travel might seem to preclude much international tourism, however, as an adaptation strategy, slow travel has the potential to reduce tourism’s overall carbon footprint. Data were collected using in-depth interviews with 15 UK participants before and after a holiday to another European country. The analysis explores the discourses used by both slow and non-slow travellers to justify modal choice in relation to climate change. Then, using a social practices model, the paper explores how holiday travel is constrained by both individual agency to act and the structures that exist within the travel and tourism industry. The paper concludes with some recommendations for the development of slow travel as a tourism adaptation strategy for a lower carbon future.     

Robustness and Local Linearisation in Economic Models

This paper discusses the importance of nonlinear dynamics from a theoretical and an empirical point of view. It stresses the need for global as opposed to local analysis and develops the important concept of robustness. Using this concept, the paper argues that much modern macroeconomics can be dismissed on methodological grounds alone. The paper also deals with the empirics of hyperinflation and with the detection of chaos in financial markets.