Tax Clientele Effects in the Term Structure of UK Interest Rates

This paper tests for tax clientele effects in the term structure of UK interest rates. Five empirical models of the term structure of interest rates, incorporating tax effects, are estimated with daily data covering the period 31 March, 1995 to 3 August, 1995. In May 1995, the British government announced its intention to eliminate the tax exemption on capital gains from government bonds, but subsequently in July 1995 backtracked on some of its initial proposals. This period therefore forms the basis of a crude natural experiment in the sense that it provides an opportunity to examine tax clientele effects 'before' and 'after' an event which should have levelled greatly the taxing of government bonds. The empirical analysis suggests large tax clientele effects. However, there is little evidence of tax-specific term structures of interest rates.     

On the dynamic effects of monetary and fiscal policy under floating exchange rates: Simulations with an asset market model

Zusammenfassung Die dynamischen Wirkungen der Geld- und Finanzpolitik bei floatenden Wechselkursen: Simulationen mit einem verm?genstheoretischen Modell.-Der Autor fügt in ein von Dornbusch entwickeltes Modell verz?gerte Anpassungen bei der Produktion und bei den Handelsstr?men ein, um die dynamischen Wirkungen der Geld- und Finanzpolitik bei floatenden Wechselkursen zu untersuchen. Trotz der Tatsache, da\ eine monet?re Expansion anfangs die Zinss?tze senkt, kann der Wechselkurs das Niveau seines neuen langfristigen Gleichgewichts unterschreiten. Dieses Ergebnis widerspricht früheren Behauptungen von Dornbusch und Fischer. Au\erdem führt eine fiskalische Expansion immer dazu, da\ der Wechselkurs sein neues langfristiges Gleichgewichtsniveau überschreitet. Schlie\lich konvergiert das System unter Schwingungen, wenn die Anpassungsverz?gerungen bei der Produktion und bei den Handelsstr?men verh?ltnism?\ig lang sind.

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Résumé Les effets dynamiques de la politique monétaire et fiscale sous des taux de change flottants: Des simulations avec un modèle du marché financier. — Dans cette étude on a introduit la retardation de l’ajustement de la production et des échanges commerciaux dans un modèle développé par Dornbusch pour analyser les effets dynamiques de la politique monétaire et fiscale sous des taux de change flottants. Malgré du fait que l’expansion monétaire abaisse le taux d’intérêt au début, le taux de change peut passer par au-dessous du nouveau niveau d’équilibre à long terme. Ce résultat contredit aux affirmations faites par Dornbusch et Fischer. En plus l’expansion fiscale fait toujours le taux de change passer par au-dessus de son nouveau niveau d’équilibre à long terme. Finalement, le système converge avec des oscillations si la retardation de la production et des échanges commerciaux est relativement étendue.

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Resumen Sobre los efectos dinámicos de la política monetaria y fiscal bajo tipos de cambio flotantes: simulaciones con un modelo “asset market”. — En estre trabajo se introducen desfasajes en el ajuste del producto y en el intercambio comercial en un modelo desarrollado por Dornbusch para analizar los efectos dinámicos de la politica monetaria y fiscal bajo tipos de cambio flotantes. A pesar de que la expansion monetaria inicialmente reduce las tasas de interés, el tipo de cambio puede no alcanzar su nuevo nivel de equilibrio de largo plazo. Este resultado contradice resultados obtenidos anteriormente por Dornbusch y Fischer. Además, la expansión fiscal siempre induce al tipo de cambio a superar su nuevo nivel de equilibrio de largo plazo. Finalmente, el sistema converge con oscilaciones si los desfasajes de producto y de comercio son relativamente largos.

     

The informal sector in selected residential areas of Port Elizabeth

The Employment Research Unit undertook three surveys on the informal sector during 1985 and 1986, two among Blacks and one among Coloureds. The aim of the surveys was to establish the composition and nature of the sector in the Port Elizabeth/Uitenhage area. It was found that in both these sectors most of the respondents were involved in trading and that very few were involved in manufacturing. Incomes earned by most of the respondents were low. and compared to subsistence level incomes only, It also appeared that the employment creation spin‐off was low. Similar problems inhibited the growth and development of this sector for both Blacks and Coloureds. They were: short‐ and long‐term loans, accommodation, poor infrastructure, and legal restrictions.     

Orbit and spectrum resource strategies: Third World demands

This article considers alternative strategies for managing orbit and spectrum resources by, first, identifying major factors that constribute to rising Third World demands and, second, reviewing the alledge economic coast of orbit spectrum planning, as well as economic distortions attributed ‘to first come, first served’. Within these bounds, the article concludes by examining some promising strategies for how both developed and developing nations may reconcile their seemingly divergent interests.     

A BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS OF NUTRITIONAL PROGRAMS FOR ANEMIA REDUCTION

Using benefit-cost analysis, this article evaluates potentialprograms for reducing iron deficiency anemia, one of the mostprevalent nutritional disorders. It discusses the origins andprevalence of anemia and reviews the literature on consequencesof anemia for work capacity, output, learning, and other variables.Costs and benefits are estimated for two types of programs—medicinalsupplementation and fortification of food with iron—andfor three cases—Indonesia, Kenya, and Mexico. Estimatesof benefits are calculated to include the value of additionalwork output in labor-surplus societies. Under a wide range of assumptions, the benefit-cost ratios arefound to be substantially greater than 1: for dietary fortificationratios ranged between 7 and 70 for the three illustrative countries;for dietary supplementation, the range was from 4 to 38 on themost reasonable set of assumptions. The study concludes thatfield trials should be carried out to see if the findings ofthis study are supported in particular cases.      

The impact of credit scoring on consumer lending

We study the adoption of automated credit scoring at a large auto finance company and the changes it enabled in lending practices. Credit scoring appears to have increased profits by roughly a thousand dollars per loan. We identify two distinct benefits of risk classification: the ability to screen high‐risk borrowers and the ability to target more generous loans to lower‐risk borrowers. We show that these had effects of similar magnitude. We also document that credit scoring compressed profitability across dealerships, and provide evidence consistent with the view that credit scoring may have substituted for varying qualities of local information.     

Estimating the price elasticity of demand in the London stock market

The hypothesis that demand curves for individual stocks slope downwards is typically investigated by empirical analysis of stock price movements following events that cause shifts in demand or supply. However, it is difficult to attribute observed price movements between downward sloping demand curves and information conveyed by the event. In this paper an econometric approach, based on market-maker response to unexpected changes in inventory, is used to separate out the slope of the demand curve from information effects and estimate the slopes of the demand curves for twenty stocks included in the Financial Times-Stock Exchange 100 Share Index (FTSE100). The analysis suggests that downward sloping demand curves would decrease the price by about 7.5% for a 1% increase in the number of outstanding shares.     

Acknowledging the importance of BAI accounts

For hospitals, balance after insurance (BAI) refers to revenue from uninsured patients and from patients with patient responsibility after insurance. BAI is a rapidly growing share of hospital revenue as a result of substitution from high-deductible commercial insurance plans-revenue that tends to convert to cash relatively easily and quickly-meaning that an increasing share of hospital cash flow is now due from the patient. Hospitals should make sure that their self-pay patients receive excellent customer service: It not only improves the likelihood of a greater yield, but also-perhaps more important-helps ensure customer loyalty and willingness to recommend the facility to others.     

When did firms become more different? Time-varying firm-specific volatility in Japan

We document how firm-specific volatility in sales, earnings and employment growth evolved year by year in Japan. Our volatility measure also indicates the evolution of firm turnover. We find that patterns in firm-specific volatility have changed when macroeconomic circumstances have. Firm turnover declined during the economic stagnation of 1991–1997. The deep downturn of fiscal years 1998–2002 coincided with a substantial increase in turnover in market, profit and employment shares. Firm volatility tended to decline during the recovery after 2002. We assess whether the rise in firm turnover and deep downturn in 1998–2002 indicate that after a period of stagnation, weak firms were finally allowed to shrink or fail. Our evidence suggests that the widening in the firm growth distribution at that time did not reflect weak firms shrinking relative to healthy firms, indicating that the two recessions in 1998–2002 were not “cleansing”.