What health care cost crisis?

Managed care has inherent limitations that, perhaps out of desperation for some degree of control of health care costs, we tend to disregard. A better understanding of the "crisis" and a host of new strategies become apparent when we separately consider the health care elements and cost elements of the crisis. Managed care is essentially palliative in that it eases symptoms without curing conditions. While this is not a call for the abandonment of managed care, it is a warning that our efforts will prove futile if we do not also address other fundamental elements of impaired health.     

Scale and Scaling in Ecological and Economic Systems

We review various aspects of the notion ofscale applied to natural systems, in particularcomplex adaptive systems. We argue that scalingissues are not only crucial from the standpointof basic science, but also in many appliedissues, and discuss tools for detecting anddealing with multiple scales, both spatial andtemporal. We also suggest that the techniquesof statistical mechanics, which have beensuccessful in describing many emergent patternsin physical systems, can also prove useful inthe study of complex adaptive systems.     

Almost common values auctions revisited

In almost common-value auctions one bidder (the advantaged bidder) has a valuation advantage over all other (regular) bidders. It is well known that in second-price auctions with two bidders, even a slight private-value advantage can have an explosive effect on auction outcomes as the advantaged bidder wins all the time and auction revenue is substantially lower than in a pure second-price common-value auction. We explore the robustness of these results to the addition of more regular bidders in second-price auctions, and the extent to which these results generalize to ascending-price English auctions in an effort to provide insight into when and why one ought to be concerned about such slight asymmetries.     

Auctions with uncertain numbers of bidders

We investigate bidders’ and seller's responses to ambiguity about the number of bidders in the first price auction (FPA) and the second price auction (SPA) with independent private valuations. We model ambiguity aversion using the maxmin expected utility model. We find that bidders prefer the number of bidders to be revealed in the FPA, are indifferent between revealing and concealing in the SPA, and prefer the SPA to the FPA. If bidders are more pessimistic than the seller then the seller prefers to conceal the number of bidders in the FPA, and prefers the FPA to the SPA.     

Relative Excess Returns

Building on a no-arbitrage relationship suggested by Clare, Thomas and Wickens (1994) between the returns on equity, bonds and treasury bills, this paper develops what is termed a 'relative excess returns' approach to the understanding of movements in equity prices. This no-arbitrage relationship is used to derive an explicit measure of excess returns, which incorporates both the excess returns to equity and bonds while netting out any unprofitable (i.e. market efficient) return predictability caused by time variation in the treasury bill rate. This measure can be related to a series of observable variables in a consistent manner and used to construct a trading rule aimed at forecasting excess returns. In a series of empirical experiments, this trading rule appears to be more 'profitable' than both the rule suggested by Clare et al. (1994) and the gilt-equity yield ratio rule (used by many UK analysts to guide investment decisions), and outperforms the strategy of 'buy and hold equity'. More generally, the analysis provides support for the existence of predictable excess returns — returns which cannot be attributed to time-varying excess returns — and for the inefficient market explanation of predictable returns.     

Multi-unit demand auctions with synergies: behavior in sealed-bid versus ascending-bid uniform-price auctions

We construct a relatively simple model of bidding with synergies and solve it for both open outcry and sealed-bid uniform-price auctions. The essential behavioral forces involved in these auctions are: (1) A demand reduction force resulting from the monopsony power that bidders with multiple-unit demands have when synergies are relatively inconsequential, and (2) Bidding above stand-alone values in order to capture significant complementarities between units. The latter creates a potential “exposure problem,” as bidders may win only parts of a package and earn negative profits. Bidding outcomes are closer to equilibrium in clock compared to sealed-bid auctions. However, there are substantial and systematic deviations from equilibrium, with patterns of out-of-equilibrium play differing systematically between the two auction formats. These patterns of out-of-equilibrium play are analyzed, along with their effects on revenue and efficiency.     

Regional Taxation and Retailing: The Economic Geography of the Internet

It is well established in the economics literature that before-tax prices are not independent of sales-tax rates. This paper shows that a sales-tax imposed in a high tax region can decrease the tax-included price for a buyer in a low tax region who purchases from a seller in the high tax region. Therefore, it may be more profitable for Internet retailers to be located in high tax regions. An empirical analysis shows that automobile manufacturers in the European Union (EU) set higher before-tax recommended prices for countries with low indirect taxes. This may contribute to the explanation of the flow of Internet automobile sales from high tax countries to low tax countries in the EU.     

Mobility in different generations of older persons: The development of daily travel in different cohorts in Denmark,Norway and Sweden

In the Scandinavian countries Denmark, Norway and Sweden, the proportion of older people in the total population is expected to reach about 25% in 2060. The ageing of the population has a variety of social implications. One aspect of population ageing that has relatively little attention in the Scandinavian countries is the question of everyday mobility. The purpose of this paper is to get a better understanding of the activity and travel patterns of different groups of older people, examine how travel- and activity patterns are developing during the life course, study the changes over time and how the “new” generations of older people behave compared to the older ones. The method used is cohort analysis of National Travel Surveys from the three countries in a 20 years perspective. Results show a significant period effect in car ownership and use among older people in Denmark, Norway and Sweden with a clear increase during the past 20 years. This is especially true for women. The increase in the number of driver’s licence-holders and car availability is reflected in travel mode choice among older people: both men and women maintain their car-use habits at old age. Another clear finding is that older people today travel more than the comparable age groups 20–25 years ago: everyday trip rates are higher and activities outside home are more common. While commuting and work-related trips decline after retirement, shopping and leisure trips do not start to decline before high age. From the cohort analysis we see that leisure and shopping trips are maintained in the period after retirement, and the car is important to reach shopping malls, health service, leisure activities, visit relatives and other social company.     

From a labour-surplus to a labour-scarce economy: challenges to human resource management in Hong Kong

In this paper, the acute problems faced by the market economy of Hong Kong are assessed. These are seen to arise from the shift in the labour market from labour surplus to labour scarcity. The major geo-political role of Hong Kong both in servicing the extendal capital requirements of South China and as a key state within the conurbation of ‘little dragons’ is also examined. The consequences of this structural shift in terms of the challenges being mounted to HRM both strategically and functionally are also evaluated and are interpreted as an evolutionary process.