The costs of suboptimal dynamic asset allocation: General results and applications to interest rate risk, stock volatility risk, and growth/value tilts

The recent theoretical asset allocation literature has derived optimal dynamic investment strategies in various advanced models of asset returns. But how sensitive is investor welfare to deviations from the theoretically optimal strategy? Will unsophisticated investors do almost as well as sophisticated investors? This paper develops a general theoretical framework for answering such questions and applies it to three specific models of interest rate risk, stochastic stock volatility, and mean reversion and growth/value tilts of stock portfolios. Among other things, we find that growth/value tilts are highly valuable, but the hedging of time-varying stock risk premia is less important.     

Differential total factor productivity in the Four Dragons: the Singapore case

This paper introduces a concept of a latent resource to explain the seemingly low total factor productivity estimated for Singapore. It found that total factor productivity growth in the economy is not as dismal as estimated in other studies if the factor shares used in the computation are nearer to those of developed industrialized economies. The existence of a latent resource also explains the discrepancy in factor shares reported in published information as compared to the empirically derived figures. From this, the policy implication is that measures to maintain the latent resource become important for the Singapore economy to remain internationally competitive.     

Advertising Myopia

This article points out a firm's advantages in promoting the generic product rather than the brand. Promoting the generic product—generic advertising—can lengthen the product's life cycle, increase per capita consumption of the product and expand the size of the market for the product. The authors discuss the types of situations in which generic advertising is used, and the reason that it is not used more extensively. They present a viable solution to this dilemma.     

The Quality of Maquiladora Investment in a Post China/WTO World: A Literature Review and Case Studies from Reynosa

ABSTRACT

Studies have consistently shown that exports manufactured in China have taken a significant market share away from Mexican producers in the United States (US) import market. In this paper, we examine how this change is shaping the quality of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mexico's maquiladora industry. Various thought leaders have suggested that low wage Chinese competition will force maquilas of out labor intensive sectors and will make them lean towards higher value added, technology intensive activities. An alternative perspective has been provided by those who argue that Mexico's unique comparative advantage is its geographic proximity to the US, and that there is no reason to believe proximity dependent maquilas will fit into a high-tech, high value added model. To determine which of these scenarios is more accurate, we summarize relevant literature and provide case studies drawn from five startup plants located in the only major Mexican city that has seen maquila employment gains over the 2000-2006 period. Research suggests that maquilas are leaning towards proximity dependent, and not necessarily technology intensive business models. The case studies illustrate a number of long term characteristics of the maquiladora environment that may limit upgrading. We conclude with policy recommendations as well as suggestions for future research.

RESUMEN. Los estudios realizados mostraron consistentemente que las exportaciones de manufacturados provenientes de China han ganado una porción significativa del mercado de importación en los Estados Unidos, que solía estar en las manos de los productores mexicanos. En este estudio examinamos cómo este cambio está modelando la calidad de la inversión extranjera directa (FDI) en la industria maquiladora mexicana. Varios líderes de la industria han expresado que la competencia resultante de los bajos salarios chinos forzará a las maquiladoras a salir de los sectores con intensiva mano de obra, para desplazarse hacia otros de mayor valor agregado, y otras actividades vinculadas profundamente a la tecnología. Una perspectiva alternativa ha sido suministrada por aquellos que sostienen que la singular ventaja competitiva mexicana reside en su proximidad geográfica a los EE.UU., y no existe razón alguna para pensar que las maquilas que dependen de esta proximidad se encajarán correctamente en este modelo altamente tecnológico, de alto valor agregado. Con el propósito de determinar cual de estos escenarios es el más correcto, hemos resumido la literatura importante y suministrado estudios de caso extraídos de cinco plantas puestas en marcha, situadas en una de las más importantes ciudades mexicanas, cuyos índices de empleo provenientes de maquiladoras han aumentado durante el período 2000-2006. Las investigaciones sugieren que las maquilas están evolucionando hacia modelos comerciales que dependen de la proximidad geográfica, y no necesariamente intensivos en tecnología. Los estudios de caso ilustran un número de características del entorno de las maquiladoras a largo plazo, que pueden limitar su actualización. Hemos concluido emitiendo una política de recomendaciones, así como sugerencias para futuras investigaciones.

RESUMO. Estudos mostram, consistentemente, que as exportações manufaturadas da China abocanharam uma fatia significativa do mercado dos produtores mexicanos no mercado de importação americano. Neste trabalho, examinamos como tal mudança está determinando a qualidade do investimento direto estrangeiro (FDI) na indústria maquiladora do México. Diversos líderes pensadores afirmaram que a competição chinesa, através de baixos salários, forçará as maquilas a deixar setores de mão-de-obra intensa e crescer em busca de um maior valor adicional, as atividades de alta tecnologia. A partir de uma perspectiva alternativa, outros defendem que a única vantagem comparativa mexicana é a proximidade com os Estados Unidos, e não há razão para acreditar que as maquilas dependentes desta proximidade adaptar-se-ão ao modelo de maior valor adicional e de alta tecnologia. Para comprovar a precisão destes cenários, resumimos o que há de relevante na literatura e apresentamos estudos de casos baseados em cinco fábricas inauguradas, na única grande cidade mexicana, que presenciou o aumento de emprego das maquilas no período de 2000 a 2006. Pesquisas sugerem que as maquilas estão tornando-se dependentes da proximidade e, não necessariamente, da alta tecnologia e dos modelos de negócios. Os estudos de caso registram uma série de características arraigadas do ambiente da maquiladora, que pode limitar o seu crescimento. Concluímos com recomendações políticas e com sugestões para pesquisas futuras.