What did people predict for the year 2000 and what happened?

Comparing the global situation in the year 2000 with what the respondent samples from 10 countries predicted 30 years earlier, the conclusion can only be that people were remarkably accurate. This does not mean that any single respondent was that accurate but that anybody, who would have liked to anticipate the year 2000, would have done quite well based on these samples. Actually, the peripheries in the samples came out even better than the centers, making us wonder what education and high special position are actually about. One possible set of explanations would be that the peripheries know better where the shoes pinch, are more holistic and are not paid by anybody to make self-fulfilling or self-denying predictions.We are going to look at what people thought and what actually happened, in three movements. The first is about what they thought about the futures of their own societies and the second about international futures. The third movement deals with how their hopes and expectations depended on who they were, more specifically: whether they belonged to the center or the periphery in their countries.     

Expenditure patterns on food and non food items of Khayelitsha households,Western Cape,South Africa

Food insecurity or lack of access to adequate and nutritious food is a major determinant of under‐nutrition. Expenditure patterns accompanied by unemployment, low level of education, inflation and high food prices have a direct negative impact on food availability within households (Moller, 1997). Ghany and Schwenk (1993) found that as household income increases, the proportion of expenditures on food decreases, the proportion of expenditures on clothing, rent, fuel, and light stayed the same and that of sundries increased. The aim of this study was to investigate household expenditure patterns on food and non‐food items in Khayelitsha. A total of 20 households (10 from the formal and 10 from the informal settlements) were randomly selected from those willing to participate in the study. A questionnaire with open ended and closed questions was used to collect data. The questionnaire comprised four sections namely: biographical information, socio‐economic information which used wealth quintiles to assess households’ social economic status, total expenditure information and a food/hunger scale was used to assess households’ food availability. The findings revealed that households from informal settlements spent more money (62.2%) as a proportion of their income on food compared to households from the formal settlement (39%). There was higher unemployment rate (100%) at the informal settlement compared to the formal settlement (40%). Wealth quintiles scales did not reflect the social status of the households as equipment and assets owned by households were only used as fallback position during times of economic hardships. Households used different purchasing strategies; food and non‐food items were mainly purchased from outside the township (60%). Forty percent of the households bought their items from local shops and spazas because they allowed them to buy items whenever little money was available or to take items on credit. All the respondents preferred to buy bread and small items from spazas and local shops. Prices of items in the spazas and local shops were higher compared to prices of items in bigger shops outside the townships. The food/hunger scale and wealth quintiles showed that informal settlement households were more food insecure (as they were all unemployed and about 50% of the households ran out of food always) and had fewer assets compared to the formal settlement households. The implications of these findings underscore the need to improve socio‐economic conditions of low resource households through empowerment programs. These programs can be in the form of training in management/decision making, work related skills/literacy (to help them access formal employment), business management/income generation skills (to help them to be self‐employed), budgeting, and food gardening. This approach can help to increase the resource base and alleviate food insecurity in low resource households.     

Business Ethics: The Bottom Line

Teaching Business Ethics -     

Equilibria in large economies with a separable Banach commodity space and non-ordered preferences

The purpose of this paper is to provide an existence result of equilibria for economies with a measure space of agents, a non-trivial production sector and an infinite dimensional commodity space. The commodity space is modeled by an ordered separable Banach space whose positive cone has a non-empty interior. The discretization approach proposed in this paper, allows us to extend the existence results in Khan and Yannelis [Equilibrium in markets with a continuum of agents and commodities. In: Khan, M.A., Yannelis, N.C. (Eds.), Equilibrium Theory in Infinite Dimensional Spaces. Springer, Berlin, 1991] and Podczeck [Economic Theory 9 (1997) 585] to economies with a non-trivial production sector and with possibly non-ordered but convex preferences as well as partially ordered (possibly incomplete) but non-convex preferences.     

Are differences in firm size transitory or permanent?

An Erratum for this article has been published in Journal of Applied Econometrics 18(2) 2003, 249 Previous empirical work on corporate growth rates using cross‐section or short‐panel econometric techniques suggests that growth rates are random but that some degree of mean reversion exists. This means that size differences between firms are transitory. Another, more natural way to explore the long‐run distribution of firm sizes is to examine data on the growth of particular firms over long periods of time. Using a sample of 147 UK firms observed continually for more than 30 years, our conclusions are that growth rates are highly variable over time and that differences in growth rates between firms do not persist for very long. Further, firms show no tendency to converge to either a common size or to a pattern of stable size differences over time. These results are compared and contrasted with standard approaches that suggest that firms reach and maintain stable positions in a skewed size distribution. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Daylight saving effect

Kamstra et al. [Kamstra, M.J., Kramer, L.A., Levi, M.D., 2000. Losing sleep at the market: the daylight saving anomaly. The American Economic Review 90, 1005–1011] argue that the mean weekend return following the changes in daylight saving time is less than the mean weekend return throughout the rest of the year. Opposing studies, such as Pinegar [Pinegar, J.M., 2002. Losing sleep at the market: comment. The American Economic Review 92, 1251–1256), reason that the observed results depend upon methodology. We extend the ongoing discussions by providing further evidence for equity markets and bond markets in Germany and across Europe. We further demonstrate that the daylight saving effect does not serve as a potential rationale for the weekend effect.     

From certainty to uncertainty: Thought, theory and action in a postmodern world

The progress of human thought in recent centuries has brought not only new knowledge but also new (and sometimes disturbing) questions that tug at the foundations of knowledge itself. The opening years of the twentieth century were marked by optimistic expectations of ever-increasing certainty and scientific and technological progress. Yet the century turned out to be an age of growing cracks in the facade of classical certainty, as relativity, quantum physics and chaos theory each deepened our understanding of the universe yet raised fundamental challenges to ideas about knowledge. Today, although reductionist and mechanistic ways of thinking still prevail in much contemporary thinking about economics, global security and environmental problems, we can nevertheless contemplate an “end of objectivity” in which we realize that we do not stand outside of the systems we study.     

中国负债知多少？

【美国《华尔街日报》7月23日】中国的隐性债务可能成为一大麻烦。     

The Effects of Screening and Monitoring on Credit Rationing of SMEs

In this paper, we seek to empirically assess which determinants of the capability and incentives of banks to screen and monitor firms are significant in explaining credit rationing to Italian SMEs. After testing for the presence of non‐random selection bias and the potential endogeneity of some determinants of interest, the probit model results we obtain suggest that the average banking size and the multiple banking relationship phenomenon are statistically significant factors affecting credit rationing, presumably through their impact on the aforementioned banks' capability and incentives. Other potential determinants of banks' incentives to monitor and screen, such as local banking competition and firm' capacity to collateralize, are never significant. However, when we split the sample according to the level of competition in credit markets, we find that the estimated marginal effects of all significant determinants of interest are larger in absolute value than those obtained when using the whole sample.