Improved estimation of portfolio value‐at‐risk under copula models with mixed marginals

Portfolio value‐at‐risk (PVAR) is widely used in practice, but recent criticisms have focused on risks arising from biased PVAR estimates due to model specification errors and other problems. The PVAR estimation method proposed in this article combines generalized Pareto distribution tails with the empirical density function to model the marginal distributions for each asset in the portfolio, and a copula model is used to form a joint distribution from the fitted marginals. The copula–mixed distribution (CMX) approach converges in probability to the true marginal return distribution but is based on weaker assumptions that may be appropriate for the returns data found in practice. CMX is used to estimate the joint distribution of log returns for the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TSE) index and the associated futures contracts on SGX and TAIFEX. The PVAR estimates for various hedge portfolios are computed from the fitted CMX model, and backtesting diagnostics indicate that CMX outperforms the alternative PVAR estimators. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:997–1018, 2006     

长丰模式：实现品牌回报产生复合效益

2005年的中国电视节目（包括电视剧）市场已经渐入“整合营销时代”的佳境，电视节目的制作者、投资者不再单纯追求资金回报，而是更加关注电视节目与商业品牌以节目及相关活动为平台，通过整合营销传播手段实现品牌回报、产生复合效益。     

The mean-variance investment problem in a constrained financial market

This paper extends the mean-variance analysis and the two-fund separation theorem to a market with some constraints, such as, the incompleteness, prohibition of short-selling, and partial information, with stochastic interest rate, and with stochastic volatility for risky assets. By maximizing a quadratic utility of terminal wealth, we show that the efficient frontier for the problem is a straight line in the mean-standard-deviation diagram. The quadratic utility function exhibits mean-variance efficiency. Our results apply to portfolios of claims in a single period, multiperiod, and continuous time.     

外贸生意难做是价格竞争引起的吗

外贸生意越来越难做了。如何看待这种现象？有人说，这是由于在高度竞争压力下的角色变形；也有人说．为了减少成本．大家都走捷径．最终导致恶意价格竞争。还有人说．企业不论大小．核心问题是要发展．增强市场竞争的能力。[编者按]     

默认盗版——软件商不愿意说出口的营销策略

如果我说有些国际名的软件商默认盗版，甚至鼓励盗版，一般人可能不太相信。但这却是一个事实，不仅是事实，而且是软件商非常成熟的一种营销策略。本正是要揭示这一商业秘密，并分析这一营销战略的利弊及由此造成的社会影响。     

广东本地服装品牌的市场培育

本地原创品牌的发展塑造需要坚持,也需要本地市场的支持。品牌经营者必须充分了解市场需求,有针对性地进行市场培育,同时结合自身条件进行品牌营销,才能在市场上取胜。文章基于服装品牌消费者层次分析,提出以差异性的品牌推广方式来培育忠诚顾客的若干策略,从而提升原创品牌的市场竞争力。     

“华人巴菲特”唐炜臻和他的金融投资

17年前，一个叫唐炜臻的中国大陆移民来到北美，一不留神撞到金融界，从此弄潮金融，以矢志不移、百折不挠的气概与豪情在北美金融投资领域指点江山、激扬文字，2006年，他又用《我的巴菲特财富之路》这一专著来解读财富的理念和理念的财富；带给人们一种灵魂的荡涤、一种对生命的开启和一种对梦想的勇往直前。2007年11月，《我的巴菲特财富之路》又再版，以飨读者；这一版，作者结合自己这一、二年的实践经验与操作体会还有不少感悟和思考，带给广大读者更多新的思维增长点；时金融投资有更精进的认知。     

中间选民理论在农民工市民化政策制定中的运用——基武汉市436位农民工的实证研究

The Median Voter Theory is an important theory in the neo-political economics. It can be applied to solve the collective choice paradox and analyze the policy making for the citizenization of peasant workers. Adopting the method of factor analysis, this paper makes an empirical study on peasant workers’ preference for citizenization. We find that there is a paradox of future residence preference and self-identification in peasant workers. On this basis, peasant workers are divided into 5 subgroups, and it is found that the median undecided peasant workers are the median voters. Based on the analysis of the median undecided peasant worker’s complaints and appeals, it is proposed that the country should strengthen the vocational training system, establish a social security system, expand the agricultural reform and promote educational reform to facilitate the citizenization of peasant workers. __________ Translated from Guanli Shijie 맜理世界 (Management World), 2007, (4): 40–67     

基于因子分析的我国区域研发能力差异比较研究

由于经济、科技发展水平不同,我国各地区在研发能力上存在较大的差异.为了对我国区域研发能力差异进行定量化分析,本文引入了研发投入强度、研发经费相对规模、研发人员相对规模、主要检索工具收录论文相对数量、授权专利相对数量、技术市场相对规模、新产品产值相对规模等指标,根据(2006年中国科技统计年鉴>提供的数据,通过因子分析,对我国各省区研发能力差异进行比较评价.