Experiments on strategic choices and markets

Much of experimental research in marketing has focused on individual choices. Yet in many contexts, the outcomes of one’s choices depend on the choices of others. Furthermore, the results obtained in individual decision making context may not be applicable to these strategic choices. In this paper, we discuss three avenues for further advancing our understanding of strategic choices. First, there is a need to develop theories about how people learn to play strategic games. Second, there is an opportunity to enrich standard economic models of strategic behavior by allowing for different types of bounded rationality and by relaxing assumptions about utility formulation. These new models can help us to more accurately predict strategic choices. Finally, future research can improve marketing practice by designing better mechanisms and validating them using experiments.     

Estimation of collective household models with Engel curves

The structural consumer demand methods used to estimate the parameters of collective household models are typically either very restrictive and easy to implement or very general and difficult to estimate. In this paper, we provide a middle ground. We adapt the very general framework of [Browning, M., Chiappori, P.A., Lewbel, A., 2004. Estimating Consumption Economies of Scale, Adult Equivalence Scales, and Household Bargaining Power, Boston College Working Papers in Economics 588] by adding a simple restriction that recasts the empirical model from a highly nonlinear demand system with price variation to a slightly nonlinear Engel curve system. Our restriction has an interpretation in terms of the behaviour of household scale economies and is testable. Our method identifies the levels of (not just changes in) household resource shares, and a variant of equivalence scales called indifference scales. We apply our methodology to Canadian expenditure data.     

Access to information and international portfolio allocation

We examine whether foreign equity holdings of portfolio investors depend on the level of information accessibility between the investors’ home and host countries. Using a comprehensive data set, alternative measures of information accessibility and robust analytical techniques, we show that differences in access to cross-country information significantly influence investors’ portfolio allocation decisions. Furthermore, the results suggest that for a given level of access to information, investors prefer to invest more in countries with a higher quality of legal/macro-institutions. Finally, the findings also confirm that the implications of information accessibility are more pronounced when markets are turbulent.     

On the Use of Intra-Industry Information to Improve Earnings Forecasts

We investigate whether earnings forecasts are improved by earlier earnings disclosures by firms in the same industry. We find improvements for time series forecasts, but not for analysts' forecasts. Considering prior earnings announcements reduces correlations between forecast errors and security price reactions to earnings announcements, even when incorporating these announcements improves forecast accuracy. Our explanation for this anomaly, which is supported by additional analysis, is that intra-industry information facilitates predicting transitory, rather than permanent, earnings components. The question of whether information transfers improve earnings forecasts provides the context for the analysis, but the primary contribution is the documentation of intra-industry information transfers in a setting other than capital markets.     

On competition and endogenous firm efficiency

Summary. Conventional wisdom holds that product market competition disciplines firms into efficiency of operation. However, in a well known paper, Martin (1993) has shown that in a linear Cournot setting (with costs determined first and product market competition taking place in a second stage) the exact opposite obtains – a larger number of firms competing in the market implies lower firm efficiency. The note clarifies further the links between market structure and efficiency. Specifically, it argues why (and how) the result derived by Martin (1993) depends upon the assumptions made regarding the structure of demand and nature of conjectures held by firms as to their rivals' behavior. An illustrative counter-example (with Bertrand behavior and non-linear demand) in which entry increases efficiency is provided as well. Received: March 2, 2000; revised version: September 19, 2000     

On preferences with infinitely many subjective states

Models with subjective state spaces have been extremely useful in capturing novel psychological phenomena that consist of both a preference for flexibility and for commitment. Interpreting the utility representations of preferences as capturing these phenomena requires one to use the notion of a sign of a state. For linear preferences, we completely characterise the sign of a state in terms of its analytic representation as an integral with respect to a signed measure. In models with finitely many states, a state is either positive or negative, but never both. We show that in models with infinitely many states, a state can be both positive and negative. Thus, models with finitely many states may not capture all the behavioural features of an infinite model. Our methods are also useful in constructing utility functionals over menus with desired local properties.     

CHANGES IN CANADIAN FAMILY INCOME AND FAMILY CONSUMPTION INEQUALITY BETWEEN 1978 AND 1992

This paper uses Canadian cross-sectional income and expenditure data to examine changes in the distribution of family income and family consumption during the period 1978 to 1992. Family consumption data are analyzed because in the presence of intertemporal consumption smoothing, the cross-sectional distribution of consumption may characterize the distribution of lifetime wealth. I find that both Canadian family income inequality and Canadian family consumption inequality moved countercyclically. In addition, both Canadian family income inequality and Canadian family consumption inequality trended upward over the period; however, the change in family consumption inequality was much smaller than the change in family income inequality, suggesting that inequality in the distribution of lifetime wealth may have changed much less than is suggested by changes in the distribution of income.