Price formation in commodity markets

This paper develops a theory-consistent market model for storable commodities and illustrates its characterization of the data-generating process for a set of major traded commodities. The dynamics of the system incorporate recent advances in modelling techniques. Cointegrated variables in the demand functions are represented by the error correction mechanism (ECM), and expected prices in the stock demand relationship are generated by a rational expectations process. The outside-sample performance of the model is tested against the pure time-series model used to formulate expected prices, and is shown to have a smaller mean square error than that of the time-series model. Thus the model provides comparatively efficient forecasts and, unlike models constructed in their reduced form, permits consideration of key behavioural relationships in commodity markets.     

what's wrong with electricity privatisation

Was the privatisation of the British electricity industry misconceived from the start? Rodney Lord, of Privatisation International, out-lines the errors of judgement that led to the current state of quasi competition.     

The trajectory of wealth in retirement

In this paper, we develop a measure of household resources that converts total financial and non-financial assets, plus annuity-like assets (mainly, Social Security and defined-benefit pensions) into an expected annual amount of wealth per person in retirement. We use this measure, which we call “annualized comprehensive wealth,” to investigate spend-down behavior among a panel of older households in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) from 1998 to 2006. Our analysis indicates that for most retired households, comprehensive wealth balances decline much more slowly than their remaining life expectancies, so that the predominate trend is for real annualized wealth to rise significantly with age over the course of retirement. Comparing the estimated age profiles for annualized wealth with profiles simulated from several different life-cycle models, we find that a model that takes into account uncertain longevity, random medical expenses, and intended bequests lines up best with the broad patterns of rising annualized wealth in the HRS.     

Europe: single market or political union?

The choice is between single market and political union over-simplified. Even an effective single market requires some political integration. So too does the management of a single currency, advantageous in itself. Neither requires a 'European economic government.' Beyond this, the peoples of Europe increasingly question the need for further supra-nationalism.'Political union,' in the form which frightens people, will not happen. Britain must play a full part in shaping the EU and its unique institutional structures, and prepare to join the euro-zone as soon as sensibly possible.     

Can European Union survive?

The Treaty of Rome promised European economic integration through free trade in goods, services and capital. Instead, Brussels has imposed ever-increasing regulation, which must weaken adaptation to global competition.     

Uncertain Medical Expenses and Precautionary Saving Near the End of the Life Cycle

This paper introduces a dynamic, structural model of household consumption decisions in which elderly families consider the effects of uncertain future medical expenses when deciding current levels of consumption. The model with uncertain medical expenses implies a potentially important role for precautionary saving incentives to explain slow rates of dissaving among elderly Americans during retirement. Rather than just simulating the stochastic dynamic model, preference parameters are estimated using panel data on health, wealth and expenditures for retired families. The health uncertainty model predicts consumption levels closer to observed expenditures than a life cycle model with uncertain longevity. However, elderly families typically dissave their financial assets more slowly than even the baseline health uncertainty model predicts is optimal.     

Does a 'shadow workforce' of inactive nurses exist?

The entire population of inactive nurses in Vermont was surveyed to determine if a "shadow workforce" exists. The notion that large numbers of nurses are available to return to work is not supported by this study. Desirable benefits for those wishing to return are discussed.