The Genetics of Breast and Ovarian Cancer III: A new model of family history with insurance applications

Insurers’ access to genetic test results is often restricted and the only genetic information that might be collected during underwriting in some countries is family history. Previous studies have included family history in a simple way but only for diseases which have no cause other than gene mutations, because then the event ‘affected parent’ contributes all possible information short of a genetic test result. We construct a model of breast cancer (BC) and ovarian cancer (OC) — common diseases with rare genetic variants — in which the development of a family history is represented explicitly as a transition between states, hence as part of the applicant's own life history. This allows the impact of a moratorium to be modelled. We then apply this family history model to life insurance in a semi-Markov framework and to critical illness (CI) insurance in a Markov framework to: (a) estimate premium ratings depending on genotype or family history; and (b) model the potential cost of adverse selection.     

Convergence,technological interdependence and spatial externalities: a spatial dynamic panel data analysis

This study adopts a spatial dynamic panel data approach and spatial quasi-maximum likelihood to re-estimate the speed of growth convergence in 91 countries based on technological interdependence and spatial externalities. We perform a conditional Lagrange multiplier test for spatial error dependence and find some differences to previous studies. First, the switch from a cross-sectional to a dynamic panel data framework enables the estimated rate of conditional convergence to be higher, more accurate and more appropriate for realistic and theoretical expectations. Second, the spatial Durbin model (SDM) is a general form of simplified model that considers spatial error correlation, and its likelihood ratio test for the theoretical model of ‘learning by doing’ effect provides further evidence. Finally, statistical tests find that spatial correlation not only occurs in each variable, but also appears in the error term. Thus, the SDM does not exist in the assumptions associated with the spatial error, which are not necessarily correct.     

Contributions to financial crisis research: an assessment of the literature in Social Science Citation Index journals from 1990 to 2008

Research in the field of financial crisis has generated a considerable amount of literature in the past, yet there has neither been any study to assess the contributions to the literature made by individuals or institutions, nor any to measure the impact of the articles and researchers. This study represents an attempt to: (1) investigate the major journals in publishing financial crisis research, (2) assess the contributions of individual researchers and institutions using the credited contribution approach and (3) measure the impact of individual publications and individual researchers on the financial crisis literature through citation analysis, based on the publications in Social Science Citation Index (SSCI) journals from 1990 to 2008. The findings provide a useful benchmark for assessing individual and institutional research productivity, and trends for future research and venues for publications are identified.     

Market power and fiscal policy in OECD countries

We compute average markups as a measure of market power throughout time and study their interaction with fiscal policy and macroeconomic variables in a VAR framework. From impulse-response functions, the results, with annual data for a set of 14 OECD countries, show that the markup (i) depicts a pro-cyclical behaviour with productivity shocks and (ii) a counter-cyclical behaviour with fiscal spending shocks. We also use a PVAR, increasing the efficiency in the estimations, which confirms the country-specific results.     

Demand disruption and coordination of supply chain via effort and revenue sharing

This article explores the equilibrium behaviour of a basic supplier–retailer distribution channel under demand disruption via effort and revenue sharing contract. This differs from the traditional supply chain coordination model. Firstly, demand is simultaneously affected by retail price and nonprice marketing effort from manufacturers and retailers. Secondly, when the demand is disrupted, this article considers disruptions in the market scale and price sensitivity coefficient. Thirdly, the supply chain coordination model is proposed via effort and revenue sharing contract. In this way, the manufacturer reduces the wholesale price as an incentive for the retailer to share revenue. Finally, the total supply chain profit is greater with contract than no contract. This also constitutes another incentive for the players to follow the effort and revenue sharing contract.     

Optimal policy with credibility concerns

This paper considers a reputation model of optimal taxation in which the public is unsure about the government type. A long-lived government can be trustworthy (meaning that it commits to its announced tax rate) or opportunistic (meaning that it retains the ability to change its tax rate after announcing it). Unlike in most prior studies, the committed strategy in this model is optimally chosen by the trustworthy type. We show that this change has significant consequences for the equilibrium dynamics. The optimal committed strategy is found to vary with the time preferences of the two government types, the initial reputation of the government, and the elasticity of household production. This formulation explains differences in policy responses across governments in the face of similar credibility problems.     

金融支持我国实体经济发展的有效性分析

实体经济稳企回转是国民经济良性发展的基础.在国内经济转型发展的攻坚时期,大量金融资本投向虚拟经济领域,发展中不平衡、不协调问题一直存在,金融支持实体经济发展的有效性引发质疑.本文从金融支持实体经济发展的现状出发,指出金融支持实体经济的针对性、有效性不足的原因,强调统筹金融市场建设、优化金融信贷政策、引导金融资源投向、加大金融产品创新、规范民间金融发展、建立成效考核机制等多个方面是确保资金投向实体经济,提升金融支持实体经济有效性的重要举措.     

基于风力模拟机Wincc的上位机监控

以S7—300PLC、变频器、三相异步电动机、感应电机构成的模拟小型风力发电平台,把风速、风向传感器与风力发电的电压信号传输至S7—300PLC进行数据处理,上位机Wincc使用以太网与PLC进行数据通信,形成监控、控制一体化,为实际生产和相关风力发电实验的监控提供技术支持。     

国防经济的地区性和外部性——中国的国防经济如何与经济建设协调发展

在当今国际关系复杂多变的背景下,即使各国间的博弈逐渐变得缓和,也改变不了国防经济在各国至关重要的作用。而对于世界上发展程度不同的国家,国防经济的发展程度也会不同,且不同的国防经济发展也对经济发展带来了不同的外部影响。本文是在综合了时代特征的情况下,探讨不同国家的不同程度的国防经济建设所揭示的地区性和所带来的外部性影响。     

Governing business process offshoring: Properties,processes, and preferred modes

This article examines an important yet understudied issue—the governance mode for business process offshoring (BPO). By applying transaction cost economics and organizational control perspective in the global BPO context, we suggest that BPO's governance mode (foreign captive, joint venture, and independent vendor) is determined by task features, such as knowledge specialization, information security, and process codifiability, and by needed process integration, horizontally between departments and units within the provider and vertically between the provider and its global client and its local subcontractor. Findings from our analysis of 308 global BPO units in India and China confirm our hypotheses.