Barbara Adam,Karlheinz A. Geißler, & Martin Held (Eds.): Die Nonstop-Gesellschaft und ihr Preis [The Non-Stop Society and Its Price]

Journal of Consumer Policy -     

Hedging Long-Term Forwards with Short-Term Futures: A Two-Regime Approach

In this paper we investigate Metallgesellschafts problem of hedging long-term forwards with short-term futures. Very different hedging strategies have been proposed in the literature. We attribute these differences to the underlying valuation approaches for oil futures and empirically compare five model-based hedging strategies. In particular, we consider a strategy which results from a two-regime pricing model. This continuous-time equilibrium model reflects the observation that prices of oil futures exhibit a very different behavior for low and high oil prices. Our empirical study shows that time diversification is the dominant effect for an effective hedging of long-term oil forwards with short-term futures. JEL classification G13, G30     

Distributive politics and economic growth: the Markovian Stackelberg solution

Summary. We generalize the result of Alesina and Rodrik (1994) by showing that their static solution is also a time consistent Stackelberg solution of a differential game between the government and the median voter.Received: 11 June 2001, Revised: 7 February 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: O15, O40, E61, C73.We would like to thank Claus Peter Ortlieb, Nikolaus A. Siegfried, and two anonymous referees for useful comments. The first version of this work was written while Holger Strulik was Marie Curie Research Fellow at the Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge, U.K. A research grant of the European Commission is gratefully acknowledged. Correspondence to: H. Strulik     

Cooperation and specialization in German technology regions

In this paper we focus on the technological knowledge of a region and the pattern of cooperative behavior of the innovative actors within that region as a means of transferring this knowledge. In particular, we are concerned with the relationship between the kind and level of knowledge and/or the degree of specialization within a region, the propensity to cooperate and the kind of cooperation. Based on a theoretical discussion of research cooperation we derive appropriate hypotheses and provide an econometric analysis based on data of co-patenting. We find that technologically moderately specialized regions show the highest number of research cooperations, and the higher a regions specialization, the more cooperations take place with partners inside that region.JEL Classification: L29, O31, R12We thank Jens J. Krüger, Michel Quéré, Cees van Beers, Henry Overman and participants of the ZEW Summer Workshop on Innovation, Location and European Integration in Mannheim as well as two anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions.     

On evolutionarily stable behavior in contests

It is argued in this paper that the solution concept of an evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) is an adequate analysis tool for contest theory. Moreover, it is shown that in a contest ESS always differs from Nash equilibrium, the hitherto dominant solution concept in contest theory. Finally, an interpretation of finite population ESS contest behavior in terms of Nash behavior is supplied.Received: 10 February 2002, Accepted: 8 July 2002, JEL Classification: C79, D72, D 74Wolfgang Leininger: I have benefited from the comments and suggestions of Burkhard Hehenkamp and two anonymous referees.     

Evaluation of Black-Scholes and GARCH Models Using Currency Call Options Data

This paper empirically examines the performance of Black-Scholes and Garch-M call option pricing models using call options data for British Pounds, Swiss Francs and Japanese Yen. The daily exchange rates exhibit an overwhelming presence of volatility clustering, suggesting that a richer model with ARCH/GARCH effects might have a better fit with actual prices. We perform dominant tests and calculate average percent mean squared errors of model prices. Our findings indicate that the Black-Scholes model outperforms the GARCH models. An implication of this result is that participants in the currency call options market do not seem to price volatility clusters in the underlying process.     

Targeting Revisited

Public spending programs aimed at alleviating poverty can eitherbe broadly targeted at categories ofspending or narrowly targetedat types of people. Each approach has benefits and costs tothe poor. It is often claimed that narrow targeting of the poorwill allow governments to reduce pQverty more effectively andat lower cost. But narrow targeting often has hidden costs,and once these costs are considered, the most finely targetedpolicy may not have any more effect on poverty than a broadlytargeted one. Both approaches also have hidden benefits, althoughless is known about their impact. Targeting can help, but itis not a cure-all. Reducing poverty calls for broadly targetedsocial sector spending combined with narrower targeting of cashand in-kind transfers to spec groups. It is also important forgovernments to experiment with schemes that offer better incentives,to carefully monitor the costs and outcomes, and to be flexibleand pragmatic in their policy responses.      

Predicting the duration and reversal probability of leveraged buyouts

We examine the probability that a firm will return to public status following a leveraged buyout (LBO) transaction and for those LBOs that will eventually reverse, we examine the factors that impact the timing of the reversal. These two dimensions of the reversal decision are studied by estimating standard and split population hazard models for a sample of 343 LBO transactions. Our results indicate that not all LBO firms eventually will reverse, i.e. the net benefits of private status for some firms appear to be permanent. For those LBOs that will reverse, reversal probabilities are found to increase over the first seven or eight years following a typical LBO, then to decline thereafter.     

The Fuzzy Front End of New Product Development for Discontinuous Innovations: A Theoretical Model

The fuzzy front end of the new product development (NPD) process, the time and activity prior to an organization's first screen of a new product idea, is the root of success for firms involved with discontinuous new product innovation. Yet understanding the fuzzy front‐end process has been a challenge for academics and organizations alike. While approaches to handling the fuzzy front end have been suggested in the literature, these tend to be relevant largely for incremental new product situations where organizations are aware of and are involved in the NPD process from the project's beginning. For incremental new products, structured problems or opportunities typically are laid out at the organizational level and are directed to individuals for information gathering. In the case of discontinuous innovations, however, we propose that the process works in the opposite direction—that is, that the timing and likelihood of organizational‐level involvement is more likely to be at the discretion of individuals. Such individuals perform a boundary‐spanning function by identifying and by understanding emerging patterns in the environment, with little or no direction from the organization. Often, these same individuals also act as gatekeepers by deciding on the value to the organization of externally derived information, as well as whether such information will be shared. Consequently for discontinuous innovations, information search and related problems/opportunities are unstructured and are at the individual level during the fuzzy front end. As such, the direction of initial decisions about new environmental information tends to be inward, toward the corporate decision‐making level, rather than the other way around. In order to cope with the special and complex nature of decisions made at the fuzzy front end of NPD for discontinuous innovations, this process is detailed as a series of decisions occurring over three proposed interfaces: boundary, gatekeeping, and project. The difference between each interface lies in the nature of the decisions made: At the boundary and gatekeeping interfaces, the primary impetus is individual‐level decision‐making; at the project interface, decisions occur at the organizational level. By articulating these processes in the form of a model, we achieve two objectives: (1) We outline a more detailed and comprehensive approach to understanding the nature of the front‐end decision making process for discontinuous innovations; and (2) we detail specific propositions for future research on each stage of the process.