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101.
This paper adds to the research efforts that aim to bridge the divide between macro and micro approaches to exchange rate economics by examining the linkages between exchange rate movements, order flow and expectations of macroeconomic variables. The basic hypothesis tested is that if order flow reflects heterogeneous expectations about macroeconomic fundamentals, and currency markets learn about the state of the economy gradually, then order flow can have both explanatory and forecasting power for exchange rates. Using one year of high frequency data collected via a live feed from Reuters for three major exchange rates, we find that: i) order flow is intimately related to a broad set of current and expected macroeconomic fundamentals; ii) more importantly, order flow is a powerful predictor of daily movements in exchange rates in an out-of-sample exercise, on the basis of economic value criteria such as Sharpe ratios and performance fees implied by utility calculations. 相似文献
102.
This study reviews the literature on the evaluation of the Olympic Games, within the broader framework of their significance as cultural assets and opportunities for endogenous growth and sustainable development of the host city. The study reviews the main approaches to the economic assessment of the Games, from the point of view of the underlying economic concepts and methodologies, as well as of the empirical results obtained. It focuses on the effects that are measured and on those, which even though important, are generally neglected. The methodologies utilized for the quantitative assessments of the Games are reviewed with special emphasis on impact and cost–benefit analysis, both on ex ante and ex post basis. The studies surveyed are analysed from the point of view of different sets of effects on the host city, and for a limited number of cases, on the host country. While the major focus is on hosting the Summer Olympics, some attention is also paid to the bidding cities, the Winter Olympics and the Paralympics. The general findings appear to be controversial with some hints of positive overall effects, but also with a well‐documented tendency to exaggerate the benefits and underestimate the costs of holding the Games in the ex ante versus the ex post studies. The survey finally suggests that ex post cross‐country econometric studies tend to catch sizable differential and persistent benefits ignored by individual studies, especially on macroeconomic and trade variables. 相似文献
103.
Miguel Martínez Lucio Mark Stuart 《International Journal of Training and Development》2003,7(1):67-77
The article will address the issue of training and development in Spain. First, the general economic and labour market context will be outlined. Second, the public policy context of training and development and the institutions of regulation will be considered in terms of the way challenges have been responded to by the state and social actors, with an emphasis on developments in lifelong learning and the reality of corporate strategy and practice. Finally, the article will provide an outline of the relevant institutions, networks and sources with regard to the issue of training and development, showing how a new constituency of interests have emerged and coalesced. There is a tendency in the literature and debates related to training and development to speak in terms of binarisms. On the one hand, there are social systems that are deemed to exalt the virtues of training and create high levels of economic investment and political involvement in this area, whilst there are others who fail both to prioritise it and develop extensive systems of social engagement. These types of approaches tend to have difficulty dealing with some of the more complex realities of training, and the myriad of typologies and hybrids, that constitute national training systems such as Spain's. 相似文献
104.
Estimating the economic costs of electricity deficit using input–output analysis: the case of Brazil
The objective of this article is to present a methodology to estimate the marginal cost of electric energy deficit in the long-term using input–output (I–O) analysis. We obtain a deficit marginal cost (DMC) curve that is not limited to a small number of levels, such as the curve used currently in Brazil, which is limited to four levels. The marginal cost of deficit is an important exogenous parameter used in the model’s chain to calculate the operation’s marginal cost and short-term market pricing. The electric energy deficit is a temporary lack of continuity in meeting demand, which is usually predictable and involves prior notice to the consumer. The cause of this deficit may be a lack of investment and/or low water inflows that impact the production of hydroelectric power plants. In this study, the marginal cost of the deficit is obtained from restrictions on the provision of electricity for productive sectors and by calculating the corresponding impact on the gross domestic product. The proposed methodology can be used with data from the I–O matrix of any country to estimate its marginal cost of electric energy deficit. 相似文献
105.
This paper proposes a vector equilibrium correction model of stock returns that exploits the information in the futures market, while allowing for both regime‐switching behaviour and international spillovers across stock market indices. Using data for three major stock market indices since 1989, we find that: (i) in sample, our model outperforms several alternative models on the basis of standard statistical criteria; (ii) in out‐of‐sample forecasting, our model does not produce significant gains in terms of point forecasts relative to more parsimonious alternative specifications, but it does so both in terms of market timing ability and in density forecasting performance. The economic value of the density forecasts is illustrated with an application to a simple risk management exercise. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
106.
We examine empirically the volatility of four major US dollar spot exchange rates using intraday data over 40 trading days. Using multivariate stochastic volatility models, we investigate the degree of persistence of exchange rate volatility for data sampled at different frequencies and the role of volatility spillovers across exchange rates. We find that the noise component of volatility 'aggregates out' very quickly, being dominated by the more persistent component of volatility for data sampled at 15–minute or lower frequencies. Our results also suggest that exchange rate volatility is very persistent and that cross–currency spillovers are small. 相似文献
107.
Using dynamic panel data econometric techniques, we analyzethe price structure of sequential auctions of modern and contemporary art that took place inItaly during the period 1983–1996. Contrary to previous empirical studies, we do not find anyafternoon effect, or decline of auction prices relative to estimated values. Taking intoconsideration the structure of the auctions and the dynamic nature of price determination, we proposean interpretation of the empirical results that encompasses previous contributions. 相似文献
108.
A novel approach to the assessment of literacy is used to tackle the issue of effectiveness of years of schooling. The dichotomy inherent in the literacy rate is rejected in favor of a “practice-based” approach, which considers literacy as a multifaceted phenomenon as advocated in anthropological and economic research. Primary data collected in the poorest region in Mozambique suggest that years of schooling have a differentiated impact on acquired literacy practices of adults. Results that are robust to different specifications are reported. 相似文献
109.
1,392 undergraduate students from Bolivia, Brazil, France, Italy, Kenya, Laos, Switzerland and the UK are involved in a survey
exploring the support for customary poverty measurement principles. Our study allows us to enhance the studies of Amiel and
Cowell (Empir Econ 22:571–588, 1997; The distribution of welfare & household production. International perspectives, 1998)
in a variety of directions. We find that the support for Weak Monotonicity crucially depends on whether the poor income rises or falls and the (generally low) agreement with Regressive Transfer is even lower if the recipient is lifted out of poverty as a consequence of the transfer. Further, the support for a certain
poverty axiom can significantly differ according to the characteristics of the income distributions to be compared, as is
the case for Population Replication and Poverty Growth when, respectively, the society to be replicated and the poor person added to society are very poor ones. Our results also
suggest a certain concern for the poorest in society and cast doubts on the desirability of continuity at the poverty line.
Finally, notable heterogeneity emerges across relevant subgroups. Poverty perceptions are significantly different for students
living in high- and low-income countries: the latter more strongly support Weak Monotonicity and Regressive Transfer, unveiling a more pronounced sensitivity to lower levels of poor incomes. Interesting differences, though less marked, are
also found between the views of economics students and those of their colleagues from other disciplines. 相似文献
110.