Patterns of infant mortality in rural England and Wales, 1850–1910†

The study of nineteenth‐century infant mortality in Britain has neglected the rural dimension to a surprising degree. This article maps the change in infant mortality rate (IMR) between the 1850s and the 1900s at registration district (RD) level. Latent trajectory analysis, a longitudinal model‐based clustering method, is used to identify the clusters into which rural RDs fell, based on their IMR trajectories. Relationships between IMR and population density, fertility, female tuberculosis mortality, female illiteracy, male agricultural wages, and distance from London are examined in a longitudinal study. The tuberculosis (maternal health), illiteracy (education), and distance variables had the most effect. IMR responded most strongly to improving health and education in the east, less in the central area, and least in the north and west. The eastern zone's higher‐than‐average mid‐century infant mortality therefore declined faster than the national average. A central and southern zone had slightly lower IMR in mid‐century but did not keep up with the rate of decline in the east. The peripheral north and west had the lowest mid‐century rates but their decline was overtaken by the other zones. The interpretation of these findings and their relevance to the wider study of infant mortality are discussed.     

Linkages between minority business characteristics and minority banks’ locations

This study presents evidence regarding differences in the financial characteristics of minority business enterprises (MBEs), contingent upon whether or not they are currently located in markets which contain minority banks. We employed Dun and Bradstreet financial data for the period 1975–83. We concluded that, on average, MBES not located in markets with minority banks were larger than the bank-related MBES, laid greater emphasis on fixed assets, and financed their businesses with more equity. The bank-related MBES apparently had greater access to debt financing and operated with greater liquidity.     

The effect of circuit breakers on expected volatility: Tests using implied volatilities

Following the 1987 stock market crash, trading controls or circuit breakers were implemented in financial markets to moderate extreme volatility. However, the effectiveness of circuit breakers on the operation of these markets is disputed. While some argue that circuit breakers curb the effects of overreaction in markets and restore confidence, others argue that these trading interruptions merely delay price movements to later periods or to other markets. This paper examines the effect of changes in circuit breaker rules on the market's expectation of future volatility. The results have policy implications and suggest that the circuit breaker rule changes have no effect on expected volatility.     

Comparing Poverty Rates Internationally: Lessons from Recent Studies in Developed Countries

Studies comparing poverty in different countries frequentlyinform the evaluation of past policies and the formulation offuture policies for reducing poverty. If the comparisons areto be a valid foundation for such assessments, in particularif they are to be a guide to the effective allocation of funds,the underlying concepts must be examined and defined. This articlediscusses four issues that are critical in this respect: thechoice of poverty indicator, the determination of the povertyline, the unit of anlysis, and the choice of equivalence scale.A selection of studies of poverty in countries that belong tothe Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development isused to show how the choices made in defining these indicatorsaffect the findings about the extent and composition of thepoor population. Although the context is different, the experienceof rich countries may yield useful lessons for developing countries.     

PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT WITH TRANSACTION COSTS: AN ASYMPTOTIC ANALYSIS OF THE MORTON AND PLISKA MODEL

We examine the Morton and Pliska (1993) model for the optimal management of a portfolio when there are transaction costs proportional to a fixed fraction of the portfolio value. We analyze this model in the realistic case of small transaction costs by conducting a perturbation analysis about the no-transaction-cost solution. Although the full problem is a free-boundary diffusion problem in as many dimensions as there are assets in the portfolio, we find explicit solutions for the optimal trading policy in this limit. This makes the solution for a realistically large number of assets a practical possibility.     

RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS AND THE DYNAMIC ADJUSTMENT OF SECURITY ANALYSTS' FORECASTS TO NEW INFORMATION

We report the results of unbiasedness tests of security analysts' earnings forecasts. By examining how analysts incorporate new information into their updated earnings forecasts we can analyze directly the effect of new information on analysts' forecast revisions and evaluate whether these revised forecasts converge to rational expectations forecasts. The forecasts made by security analysts participating in the Institutional Brokers Estimate System (IBES) database are analyzed. Using standard statistical tests, we reject the simple form of the rational expectations hypothesis. However, by extending the standard tests used in previous studies, we obtain results that suggest that analysts' earnings forecasts conform to a dynamic form of rationality. The tendency of revised forecasts to converge stochastically toward the rational expectations forecast cautions against the rejection of more complicated forms of rationality.     

Biodiversity and Optimal Policies Towards R&D and the Growth of Genetically Modified Crops

In this paper we provide a simple model illustrating the possible nature ofgovernment policy with regards to genetic modification, taking into accountits impact on the environment. We show that it is necessary not only tointervene in the growing of crops, but also to intervene in R&D througha tax on the adoption of new GM technology. Without intervention at bothlevels, both the cultivation of GM crops and the rate of innovation in GM willexceed their socially optimal levels.     

Reforming or Transforming the Federal Tax System: (A Review Essay)

A bstract . Several proposals to reform the federal income tax system are under active consideration. Professor Richard W. Lindholm has proposed instead that we abolish the individual and corporate income taxes and the estate and gift taxes. To replace the lost revenue he proposes a flat 15 per cent value added tax and a flat 2 per cent net wealth tax. He posits five goals for successful tax reform and discusses his proposed system in terms of them. He finds his system would be simpler and less disruptive of markets than even a simplified income tax structure.     

Good green mothers consuming their way through pregnancy: roles of environmental identities and information seeking in coping with the transition

We explore the consumption experiences of women who opt for an environmentally conscious approach to pregnancy. Our findings reveal that environmentally conscious mothers conduct extensive scientific research about the products that they purchase during pregnancy and the associated risks of using such products. They believe that their efforts to find and process such information make them experts on what is best for their babies’ health and proclaim some micromanaging powers in an uncontrollable environment. Alas, consumption decisions are simultaneously coupled with tensions between (1) needing to make informed choices and being overwhelmed with information; (2) feeling confident about seeking consumption information and lacking the confidence to share it; and (3) pursuing external expertise and resorting to internal instincts. Thus, although consumption is often perceived as a helpful coping mechanism when transitioning to new life roles, we find that it also contributes to the complexity of such transitional situations.