International trade and finance: Complementaries in the United Kingdom 1870-1913 and the United States 1920-1930

Do international trade and finance flow together? In a variety of theoretical models, trade and finance can be shown to have the potential to be substitutes or complements, so the matter must be resolved empirically. We study trade and financial flows from the United Kingdom from 1870 to 1913 and the United States in the interwar years. These were the two major capital exporters and key financial centers in each era. We find that trade and finance were robustly correlated for each case. We consider simultaneity issues. We also discuss evidence from the British Empire which casts doubt on the idea that trade is a punishment device in the event of a default.     

The impacts of large trades by trader types on intraday futures prices: Evidence from the Taiwan Futures Exchange

We find that China's P/E ratio is comparable to that of the U.S. S&P 1500 index, a broad based index covering large, middle, and small capitalization firms. We provide an explanation as to why China's seemingly low P/E ratio is not surprising in light of the economic growth that it has experienced. Specifically, we show that (i) the P/E ratio is negatively associated with earnings volatility in both the Chinese and U.S. stock markets with an economically significant magnitude; and (ii) historical earnings volatility is considerably higher in China than in the U.S. Higher earnings volatility in China offsets higher growth prospect in setting the P/E ratio, making its P/E ratio much closer to what is observed empirically than otherwise implied by its growth rate.     

Inference with dependent data using cluster covariance estimators

This paper presents an inference approach for dependent data in time series, spatial, and panel data applications. The method involves constructing t and Wald statistics using a cluster covariance matrix estimator (CCE). We use an approximation that takes the number of clusters/groups as fixed and the number of observations per group to be large. The resulting limiting distributions of the t and Wald statistics are standard t and F distributions where the number of groups plays the role of sample size. Using a small number of groups is analogous to ‘fixed-b’ asymptotics of [Kiefer and Vogelsang, 2002] and [Kiefer and Vogelsang, 2005] (KV) for heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent inference. We provide simulation evidence that demonstrates that the procedure substantially outperforms conventional inference procedures.     

Pressure group power in the European Community

The renewed attention to the strengthening of the internal market of the European Community heralded by the Single European Act of 1986 is likely to produce a quantum leap in pressure group activity in Brussels, as business interests line up to exert their influence on the many harmonisation measures that are in the pipeline. How great an influence have European pressure groups exerted up till now? In what spheres has this influence been felt most strongly?     

Information and Communication Technologies and their Role in Urban Regeneration

The idea that information and communication technologies (ICT) can provide a means to regenerate deprived urban areas is still a relatively new concept in the United Kingdom. There is in fact little empirical evidence to demonstrate what actually happens when ICT projects are designed with regeneration in mind. A case study of ICT regeneration is examined here, one funded through the Single Regeneration Budget and operational in an urban area in the North East of England. What became apparent during this study is how the changing policy environment meant other types of ICT initiative came on-stream before the project could firmly establish a position within its community. The authors challenge the logic of this form of activity and demonstrate that even when there seems to be a need to support ICT-led development the sustainability of such projects is highly problematic.     

The influence of the financial press on stockholder wealth: the case of corporate governance

This study examines the impact that the publication of ratings of boards of directors by the business press has on stockholder wealth. We report findings from an event study of price reactions to the publication of Business Week's 1996 and 1997 ratings of boards of directors of U.S. corporations. As hypothesized, favorable ratings resulted in significant positive abnormal returns after controlling for market effects and confounding events, with only novel information explaining statistical variance. Contrary to expectations, unfavorable ratings also resulted in positive abnormal returns. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Property Rights Protection of Biotechnology Innovations

Protection of intellectual property embedded in self-replicating biological innovations, such as genetically modified seed, presents two problems for the innovator: the need for copy protection of intellectual property and price competition between new seed and reproduced seed. We consider three regimes in two periods with asymmetric information: short-term contracts, biotechnological protection, and long-term contracts. We find that piracy imposes more intense competition for seed sales than does durability alone. Technology protection systems yield highest firm profit and long-term contracts outperform short-term contracts. Farmers prefer, in order, long-term, short-term, and biotechnical protection. Depending on monitoring cost, long-term contracts may be socially preferred to short-term contracts, with both preferred to biotechnical protection.