On the forecasting of the challenging world future scenarios

Logistic and power law methodologies for both retrospective and prospective analyses of extended time series describing evolutionary growth processes, in environments with finite resources, are confronted. While power laws may eventually apply only to the early stages of said growth process, the Allee logistic model seems applicable over the entire span of a long range process. On applying the Allee logistic model to both the world population and the world gross domestic product time series, from 1 to 2008 AD, a projection was obtained that along the next few decades the world should experience a new economic boom phase with the world GDP peaking around the year 2020 and proceeding from then on towards a saturation value of about 142 trillion international dollars, while the world population should reach 8.9 billion people by 2050. These results were then used to forecast the behavior of the supply and consumption of energy and food, two of the main commodities that drive the world system. Our findings suggest that unless the currently prevailing focus on economic growth is changed into that of sustainable prosperity, human society may run into a period of serious economical and social struggles with unpredictable political consequences.     

HETEROGENEITY IN WILLINGNESS‐TO‐PAY FOR THEATRE PRODUCTIONS: INDIVIDUAL SPECIFIC WILLINGNESS‐TO‐PAY ESTIMATES FOR THEATRES,SHOWS AND THEIR ATTRIBUTES

This paper investigates people's preferences for live theatre, and heterogeneity in willingness‐to‐pay (WTP). A stated preference discrete choice model estimates utility and WTP for different attributes of theatre productions. Previous studies assumed fixed coefficients across all theatre‐goers. This study allows coefficients of attributes to vary across individuals in the population, providing information on the heterogeneity of tastes. Theatre‐goers' choices are used to estimate individual‐based parameters for a person's tastes in theatre productions. The analysis reveals the heterogeneity of tastes for different types of plays and ticket price; and the significance of ‘reviews’ by critics and ‘word of mouth’ opinions as important variables determining choice.     

Suspending disbelief: Influencing engagement in scenarios of forest futures

Scenario analysis is an approach to long-term planning that informs decision-making in contexts of highly uncertain future conditions. Scenario-based studies are rapidly growing in popularity, yet many aspects of the method are not fully understood. Participants' willingness to suspend disbelief in possible futures is an integral component of scenario-based studies, essential for considering alternative future scenarios, yet little is known about the factors that affect it. Participation in a scenario project does not necessarily imply willingness or ability to suspend disbelief; participants may not suspend disbelief simply upon request. However, the scenario literature says little about the aspects of scenario-based studies that influence suspension of disbelief.This article explores the factors that influenced the suspension of disbelief in one scenario exercise about the future of Canada's forests. Participants differed in their abilities to suspend disbelief in the scenarios in part because of their past experiences and expertise in particular areas, and their assessments of probable and desired future outcomes. Elements of the project design and implementation influenced participants' abilities to engage the scenarios. The results have implications for those interested in using scenarios for helping people and communities envision possible - and sustainable - futures.     

Environmental Policy Theory Given Bounded Rationality and Other-regarding Preferences

Established environmental policy theory is based on the assumption of homo economicus. This means that people are seen as fully rational and acting in a self-regarding manner. In line with this, economics emphasizes efficient policy solutions and the associated advantages of price incentives. Behavioral economics offers alternative, more realistic views on individual behavior. In this paper we investigate opportunities to integrate bounded rationality and other-regarding preferences into environmental policy theory to arrive at recommendations for more effective policies. For this purpose, we will address decisions made under risk and uncertainty, intertemporal choice, decision heuristics, other-regarding preferences, heterogeneity, evolutionary selection of behaviors, and the role of happiness. Three aspects of environmental policy are considered in detail, namely sustainable consumption, environmental valuation and policy design. We pay special attention to the role of non-pecuniary, informative instruments and illustrate the implications for climate policy.     

Von Schwestern und Brüdern – wird die Pflege männlich?

Randerscheinung oder Zukunftsl?sung? - Mehr M?nner in der Pflege, lautet das erkl?rte Ziel der Politik, um den drohenden Pflegenotstand abzuwenden. Braucht die Pflege mehr M?nner? Wie viele arbeiten bereits in pflegenden Berufen? Und was sagen die Frauen in der Pflege dazu? Wir haben uns umgeh?rt.     

Lehren und Leiten

Pflegep?dagogik (Bachelor/Master) - Der Ruf nach qualifiziertem Pflegepersonal setzt voraus, dass deren Aus- und Weiterbildung selbst entsprechende Anforderungen erfüllt. Den Einsatz von qualifizierten Lehrkr?ften mit speziellen, berufsp?dagogischen Kenntnissen und F?higkeiten beispielsweise. Studieng?nge zur Berufsp?dagogik im Gesundheitswesen bereiten auf die anspruchsvolle T?tigkeit vor.     

The Impact of Relational Capital on the Success of New Business Start‐Ups

This study seeks to highlight the key role played by relational capital in new business start‐ups. Following a review of previous research examining the success factors of new ventures and the role played by intellectual capital, our study sets out to achieve this objective by analyzing the impact of a set of intangible relational assets on the initial success of new business start‐ups. Based on a study of 130 firms, we analyzed six hypotheses regarding the possible positive relationship between the relational capital of a start‐up company and its success in its first few years of business.