WESTERN FARM LABOR ISSUES

This paper examines three farm labor issues: (1) how mechanization affects the demand for farm labor; (2) how immigration reform affects the supply of farm workers; and (3) how 10 years of collective bargaining affect the farm labor market. The evidence suggests that mechanization, immigration reform, and collective bargaining have had or will have fewer effects on the farm labor market than is often assumed. However, the farm labor market is vulnerable to future shocks if it remains isolated from nonfarm labor markets.     

Trade Impacts of China's World Trade Organization Accession

This study examines China's World Trade Organization (WTO) accession commitments and assesses their implications for China and the world using a model reflecting the importance of duty-free intermediate inputs in China's exports. The WTO agreement built on earlier reforms that introduced competition into the trade regime, eliminated nontariff barriers and exchange rate overvaluation, and reduced tariffs. The reforms associated with accession were conservatively estimated to increase global real incomes by $74 billion per year, with $29 billion accruing to China and the remainder primarily to those countries trading directly with China. Some lower-income developing countries faced greater competition from China in third markets.     

Balance Sheet Effects, Bailout Guarantees and Financial Crises

This paper provides a model of boom-bust episodes in middle-income countries. It is based on sectoral differences in corporate finance: the nontradables sector is special in that it faces a contract enforceability problem and enjoys bailout guarantees. As a result, currency mismatch and borrowing constraints arise endogenously in that sector. This sectoral asymmetry allows the model to replicate the main features of observed boom–bust episodes. In particular, episodes begin with a lending boom and a real appreciation, peak in a self-fulfilling crisis during which a real depreciation coincides with widespread bankruptcies, and end in a recession and credit crunch. The nontradables sector accounts for most of the volatility in output and credit.     

CURRENCY MARKET CONTAGION IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION

During the East Asian currency crisis of 1997–98 the potential transmission of the crisis to developed markets such as Japan, Australia and New Zealand, was of considerable policy concern. Potential channels consist of anticipated movements stemming from common factors, spillovers and contagion. The empirical results show that the transmission of volatility in the East-Asian currency markets to the developed markets in the region is not due to contagion, but rather attributed to common world factors. Spillovers have a minor role in the case of Japan and to a lesser degree, Australia.