Value at Risk and Economic Growth

The improvement of data statistics as well as the econometrician methods have facilitated the introduction the new variables and factors I the economic growth analysis. In this sense, real variables have mainly been considered in the economic growth studies, but not financial or risk management aspects. In this sense, it is interesting to analyze the relationship between economic growth and value at risk and the feed-back process. The goal of the paper is to analyze the relationship between economic growth and risk management and the feed-back process. We will consider economic variables, including economic growth, rule of law, human capital, fiscal policy and monetary policy, among others, in our analysis. We will analyze the theoretical relationships between these variables and risk and the effects of risk on economic growth. We will also develop an empirical analysis considering the case of 15 European Union countries.

The demand for and the supply of distribution services: A basis for the analysis of customer satisfaction in retailing

This paper brings together two bodies of literature. One of them is a literature on the special role of the consumer in retailing. The other one is the literature on customer satisfaction. This joining of literatures is accomplished by identifying distribution services as outputs of retail firms and fixed inputs into the production functions of consumers and relaxing the standard assumption that the demand for these services is always equal to the supply of these services. The result is a new conceptual framework for the analysis of customer satisfaction in retailing. This framework extends the basic ideas on customer satisfaction developed for manufacturing in a homogeneous single product setting to the heterogeneous multi-product setting relevant for many retailers. The paper illustrates one approach to the implementation of this framework with data for a set of supermarkets in Pamplona, Spain, that measure distribution services by asking consumers questions explicitly identifying these services. The five main categories of distribution services identified by the conceptual framework and measured in the data are economically important and statistically robust determinants of customer satisfaction with supermarkets. These results are obtained controlling for other variables typical of the customer satisfaction literature and measuring customer satisfaction in a manner consistent with that literature. The results are robust to corrections for sample selection and alternative estimation methods. Perhaps our most interesting novel result is that the effect of the determinants of customer satisfaction on future purchase intentions in the supermarket case is different when measured directly in a one stage process than when measured indirectly in a two stage process through the attributes/satisfaction/ purchase intentions chain.

The evaluation of a surveillance system for violent and non-intentional injury mortality in Colombian cities

Since 2002, the Institute for Peace Promotion and Injury/Violence Prevention (CISALVA) at the Universidad del Valle, Cali, Colombia and the Colombia Program at Georgetown University have developed and implemented 21 epidemiologically based municipal crime observatories in intermediate-sized municipalities in Colombia. These crime observatories serve as monitoring centres that provide low cost, geo-referenced methods of data collection and analysis, which allow cities to develop more responsive policies and prevention programmes and enhance governance. This article focuses on the methodology employed and lessons learned that may be applicable to similar settings. Worth noting within the results was a significant decrease in homicides after the first year of the programme. Whether or not such results could be attributed to the method or to the nature of the interventions and policy initiatives stemming from it remains open to conjecture.     

基于研究联合体的国家自主创新示范区企业转型升级评价——2016-2020年1 827家上市公司的实证分析

作为引领区域创新发展的前沿阵地,国家自主创新示范区企业必须率先实现高质量转型升级,以支撑示范区充分发挥其创新引领和辐射带动作用。基于扎根理论,对11个典型案例进行研究,得到具体影响因素,在此基础上构建研究联合体视角下国家自主创新示范区企业转型升级评价指标体系,并运用AHP-熵权组合赋权模型对2016-2020年中国1827家A股制造企业进行实证研究。结果发现：示范区企业转型升级综合指数整体较低,企业转型升级水平具有较大提升空间;东中西部示范区企业转型升级水平存在较大差距且呈现扩大趋势;南北部示范区企业转型升级不存在显著差异,制造业为主的南部示范区企业转型升级水平较高;示范区企业转型升级受研发创新协同的影响较大,后者是示范区企业转型升级的主要影响因素。鉴于此,国家层面应健全以政府为主导的示范区企业支持政策体系;示范区层面应积极落实国家重大区域发展战略,以培育高精尖人才科研团队、搭建智能化研究联合体为发力点;企业层面以示范区企业研究联合体作为新引擎,聚焦示范区企业核心技术难题,促进示范区企业高质量创新发展。     

优势使用何以促进员工创新？和谐式激情与平台型领导的作用

基于自我决定理论,采用三阶段追踪调查数据,构建并验证优势使用对员工创新行为的影响机制,考察和谐式激情的中介作用以及平台型领导的调节作用。通过对341份有效问卷的统计分析发现,和谐式激情在优势使用影响员工创新行为的过程中发挥部分中介作用;平台型领导不仅正向调节优势使用对员工和谐式激情的正向影响,而且正向调节优势使用通过和谐式激情影响员工创新行为的间接效应。     

因行业而异的温室气体减排政策——基于古诺模型的福利分析

笔者在古诺模型中引入温室气体排放的负外部性问题,分析了厂商的利润最大化行为,并基于社会福利函数得到了温室气体最优排放水平。该最优结果与经典的庇古分析结果相比偏多,这表明庇古政策并不是最优的,最大化社会福利的排放额并无需完全弥补排放的负外部性。进一步分析表明,最优排放水平与市场结构有关,垄断程度越高减排水平反而应该越低。     

婴幼儿食品微生物及微生物毒素调查分析

对婴幼儿食品（配方乳粉、补充谷物、饼干和罐头）分别进行微生物污染以及微生物毒素调查。调查结果表明：357份婴幼儿食品均未检出沙门氏菌和单核细胞增生李斯特氏菌;11份婴幼儿配方乳粉、1份补充谷物和1份饼干食品中检出坂崎肠杆菌,检出率分别为4.2%,2.4%和2.5%;检出1份补充谷物菌落总数超过国家标准最高安全限量值。13份婴幼儿配方乳粉和3份补充谷物检出肠杆菌科细菌,检出率分别为32.5%和7.1%;14份（婴幼儿）配方乳粉、2份婴幼儿罐头检出蜡样芽孢杆菌,检出率分别为35%和20%;1份婴幼儿配方乳粉检出黄曲霉毒素M1超标。婴幼儿食品存在微生物及其微生物毒素污染的风险,应加强对婴幼儿食品的致病微生物及其毒素的监测和监管。     

浅谈涵洞浆砌工程质量纠正控制措施

近年浆砌工程在重大高速公路应用及其广泛,但施工结束还未交工验收时就出现脱落、裂缝等问题。针对此问题我合同段积极采取实质、外观质量纠正和控制措施,以供大家参考和相互学习。