Clustering technique for risk classification and prediction of claim costs in the automobile insurance industry

This paper considers the problem of predicting claim costs in the automobile insurance industry. The first stage involves classifying policy holders according to their perceived risk, followed by modelling the claim costs within each risk group. Two methods are compared for the risk classification stage: a data‐driven approach based on hierarchical clustering, and a previously published heuristic method that groups policy holders according to pre‐defined factors. Regression is used to model the expected claim costs within a risk group. A case study is presented utilizing real data, and both risk classification methods are compared according to a variety of accuracy measures. The results of the case study show the benefits of employing a data‐driven approach. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multi-Party Negotiation When Agents Have Subjective Estimates of Bargaining Powers

This paper presents a method for generating Pareto-optimal solutions in multi-party negotiations. In this iterative method, decision makers (DMs) formulate proposals that yield a minimum payoff to their opponents. Each proposal belongs to the efficient frontier, DMs try to adjust to a common one. In this setting, each DM is supposed to have a given bargaining power. More precisely each DM is supposed to have a subjective estimate of the power of the different parties. We study the convergence of the method, and provide examples where there is no possible agreement resulting from it.     

Corporate Ownership Structure and the Informativeness of Earnings

This study extends prior studies by examining how managerial ownership and external unrelated blockholdings affect the informativeness of earnings. The results are in contrast to prior studies. A non–linear relation exists between managerial ownership and earnings informativeness. Earnings informativeness increases with managerial ownership at low levels but not at higher levels of managerial ownership where the entrenchment effect sets in. Consistent with the role of large shareholder monitoring, the evidence shows a strong positive relationship between external unrelated blockholdings and earnings informativeness. These results are supported when income–increasing and absolute discretionary accruals are used to measure the extent of earnings management     

Determinants and consequences of financial distress: review of the empirical literature

We synthesise the empirical literature on the determinants and consequences of financial distress, critique the findings and offer suggestions for future research. We categorise these indicators into (i) firm-level fundamental determinants, (ii) macroeconomic determinants and (iii) firm-level corporate governance determinants. We categorise the consequences into (i) financial reporting and auditing consequences, (ii) firm-level operational consequences, (iii) capital market consequences and (iv) corporate governance consequences. We suggest that future research can make a more meaningful contribution, by developing more comprehensive models of predicting financial distress which will entail a departure from the current partial analysis to a more holistic complex analysis.     

Multiple equilibria model with intrafirm bargaining and matching frictions

In this paper, we combine a matching model derived from Pissarides (2000) in the case of large firms with monopolistic competition on the product market and the model of intrafirm bargaining à la Stole and Zwiebel (1996). Moreover, we allow for increasing returns to scale in the aggregate production function leading to multiple equilibria. We study the dynamics of such a framework and propose numerical simulations. We show that labour market regulation can make unlikely the occurrence of the Pareto inferior equilibrium and that product market deregulation can have an effect on employment contrary to the expected result when the economy stands at this equilibrium. We give also some policy recommendations to reach the Pareto superior equilibrium when multiple equilibria exist.     

Sustainable exploitation of a natural resource: a satisfying use of Chichilnisky’s criterion

Chichilnisky’s criterion for sustainability has the merit to be, so far, the unique explicit, complete and continuous social welfare criterion that combines successfully the requirement of efficiency with an instrumental notion of intergenerational equity (no dictatorship of the present and no dictatorship of the future). But it has one drawback: when applied in the context of renewable resources, and with a constant discount factor, there exists no exploitation path that maximizes this criterion. The present article suggests a way to cope with this problem. The idea is to restrict attention to the set of convex combinations between the optimal discounted utilitarian program and the stationary program leading to the green golden rule. It is shown that an optimal path in this set exists under rather weak sufficient conditions on the fundamentals of the problem. Some ethical properties of this approach are also discussed. In some cases, it turns out that the restricted solution implies no loss of efficiency and benefits intermediate and infinitely distant generations.     

Stemming the exodus of women managers

Survey findings based on a national sample of CEOs and human resource managers indicate that over 50% of organizations have experienced moderate to great difficulty attracting and retaining women managers and professionals. Respondents perceived that the most serious career problems encountered by women revolve around organizational politics, career development opportunities, and family conflicts. Existing and needed human resource management policies in response to these problems are reported. A series of additional analyses highlight differences across industries, and according to company size and stage in the corporate life cycle. Based on survey findings, recommendations are discussed for human resource management practitioners concerned with increasing their companies' abilities to actively compete for and retain women managers.     

Nash equilibrium and party polarization in an electoral model with mixed motivations

We study the existence problem of Nash equilibrium as well as the patterns of equilibrium policy outcomes in an electoral competition model with mixed motivations. Each party maximizes a sum of party members’ expected utility and office rent. The inclusion of office rent renders the payoff of each party discontinuous. This makes it difficult to apply usually fixed point arguments to prove the existence of Nash equilibria. By using a recently developed concept, multiple restrictional security (MR‐security) we provide conditions under which a pure‐strategy Nash equilibrium exists within fairly general settings, and further the analysis by presenting conditions under which various patterns of policy choices, including polarization, arise in equilibrium.