Bayesian estimation based on ranked set sample from Morgenstern type bivariate exponential distribution when ranking is imperfect

In this paper we consider Bayes estimation based on ranked set sample when ranking is imperfect, in which units are ranked based on measurements made on an easily and exactly measurable auxiliary variable X which is correlated with the study variable Y. Bayes estimators under squared error loss function and LINEX loss function for the mean of the study variate Y, when (X, Y) follows a Morgenstern type bivariate exponential distribution, are obtained based on both usual ranked set sample and extreme ranked set sample. Estimation procedures developed in this paper are illustrated using simulation studies and a real data.     

全球性量化宽松意味着全球性长期通胀

【摩根士丹利7月3日】目前,许多国家的总体通胀率已陷入负区间,而全球经济才刚刚摆脱“大衰退”。在这种情况下担忧通胀风险,如果不说是荒唐,似乎至少也是为时过早。现在看来,大多数投资者并不担心通胀风险。事实上,根据市场数据推算,目前美国和欧元区的10年期通胀预期都不到2％,低于过去十年间的实际通胀率。但我们认为,市场对长期通胀风险过于乐观了;未来十年的通胀率看来更有可能大大超过、而非低于过去十年间的平均通胀率。     

Cost Structure and Payout Policy

I investigate the effects of firms’ proportion of fixed and variable costs on their payout policy and find that firms with higher fixed costs have significantly higher volatility in their future cash flows and more variable future operating incomes. These firms pay a lower fraction of their operating income in dividends and share repurchases. Finally, these firms return higher fractions of their payouts via share repurchases because this method offers greater flexibility. The results are robust to several alternate specifications and firm‐level controls, and show that firms’ cost structures play a significant role in payout policy choices.     

Widowhood and health of elderly in India: examining the role of economic factors using structural equation modeling

Evidence on the association between widowhood and health is widely available in the literature. However, there is a dearth of analysis on the mechanism through which widowhood affects the health status of an individual, particularly in old age, specifically whether widowhood among the elderly affects their health through their economic conditions. This paper purports to establish both the direct and indirect effects of widowhood on self-reported health status among aged Indians. We examine the mediating effect of economic factors such as income, labor force participation, extent of economic independence and other economic factors in the relationship between widowhood and health status. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) is employed to test specific hypotheses. We use unit level 60th round data for the year 2004 surveyed by the National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO). The results confirm that poor economic conditions have a mediating effect on the relationship between widowhood and health and, therefore, any policy to reduce the effect of widowhood on health must be based on economic factors.     

Can individuals’ beliefs help us understand nonadherence to malaria test results? Evidence from rural Kenya

In malaria‐endemic countries about a quarter of test‐negative individuals take antimalarials (artemisinin‐based combination therapies [ACTs]). ACT overuse depletes scarce resources for subsidies and contributes to parasite resistance. As part of an experiment in Kenya that provided subsidies for rapid diagnostic test and/or for ACTs conditionally on being positive, we studied the association between beliefs on malaria status (prior and posterior the intervention) and decisions to get tested and to purchase ACTs. We find that prior beliefs do not explain the decision of getting tested (conditional on the price) and nonadherence to a negative test. However, test‐negative individuals who purchase ACTs report higher posterior beliefs than those who do not, consistent with a framework in which the formers revise beliefs upward, while the latters do not change or revise downward. We also do not find evidence that prior beliefs on ACT effectiveness and trust in test results play any major role in explaining testing or treatment behavior. Further research is needed to improve adherence to malaria‐negative test results.     

Trade liberalization and rising wage inequality in Latin America: Reconciliation with HOS theory

The paper puts forward the hypothesis that the transitory effects of trade liberalization on wage inequality can differ from the long-run outcome. In cases where the HOS theory predicts a decline in wage inequality in the long run, a temporary rise can, nevertheless, occur due to (i) the asymmetries in the speed of contraction in the import sector and expansion in other sectors, and (ii) the capital-skill complementarity in production. The asymmetric contraction and expansion causes a transitory capital accumulation that boosts the relative and the real wage of skilled labor due to capital-skill complementarity. Although the long-run HOS fundamentals are, therefore, dominated in the short run by the transient effects arising due to capital-skill complementarity, the observed rise in wage inequality is nonetheless consistent with the HOS theory appropriately extended to a dynamic setting.