Friend or Foe? On the role of institutional reforms in the investment development path of Central and East European economies

Many existing studies on emerging markets and firms have concentrated on the separate effects of institutional reforms and quality of the institutional infrastructure for attracting inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and fostering outward FDI. We argue that both these perspectives should be considered in an interplay, as there are links between inward and outward FDI in a country's economic development, which is captured by the investment development path (IDP) concept. Moreover, while predominant attention has been paid to emerging markets, little has so far been done to evaluate the sustainability of the institutional development, including later post-transition stages. We extend the IDP with insights from the institutional theory and conduct a comparative analysis of the effects of institutional reforms on IDP paths of ten Central and Eastern European (CEE) post-communist European Union (EU)-members. We find that while most of the studied post-transition economies follow a quadratic relationship between the net outward investment (NOI) position and each country's economic development, the role of institutional reforms is not in all cases accelerating the movement through the stages of the IDP. We attempt to explain the ambiguous role of institutions in an ensuing detailed discussion of the investigated countries.     

Generalized risk-dominance and asymmetric dynamics

This paper proposes two (ordinal and cardinal) generalizations of [J.C. Harsanyi, R. Selten, A General Theory of Equilibrium Selection in Games, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA and London, 1988] risk-dominance to multi-player, multi-action games. There are three reasons why generalized risk-dominance (GR-dominance) is interesting. Extending the logic of risk-dominance, GR-dominant actions can be interpreted as best responses to conjectures that satisfy a certain type of symmetry. Second, in a local interaction game of [G. Ellison, Learning, local interaction, and coordination, Econometrica 61 (5) (1993) 1047], if an action is risk-dominant in individual binary interactions with neighbors, it is also GR-dominant in the large game on a network. Finally, we show that GR-dominant actions are stochastically stable under a class of evolutionary dynamics. The last observation is a corollary to new abstract selection results that applies to a wide class of so-called asymmetric dynamics. In particular, I show that a (strictly) ordinal GR-dominant profile is (uniquely) stochastically stable under the approximate best-response dynamics of [M. Kandori, G.J. Mailath, R. Rob, Learning, mutation, and long run equilibria in games, Econometrica 61 (1) (1993) 29]. A (strictly) cardinal GR-dominant equilibrium is (uniquely) stochastically stable under a class of payoff-based dynamics that includes [L.E. Blume, The statistical-mechanics of strategic interaction, Games Econ. Behav. 5 (3) (1993) 387-424]. Among others, this leads to a generalization of a result from [G. Ellison, Basins of attraction, long-run stochastic stability, and the speed of step-by-step evolution, Rev. Econ. Stud. 67 (230) (2000) 17] on the -dominant evolutionary selection to all networks and the unique selection to all networks that satisfy a simple, sufficient condition.     

The financial system in post-communist countries: the Polish lessons

The financial systems inherited by post-communist countries are damaging their economic development and make impossible macroeconomic policies aimed both at growth and economic stabilization. This incompatibility is illustrated by recent Polish experiences under both the last communist and the first non-communist government.     

The largest square of successes covering the origin for Bernoulli trials on the lattice

Consider a collection of Bernoulli random variables on the two dimensional integer lattice and define the length D of the side of the largest square consisting entirely of successes, which covers the origin of the lattice. The paper gives a method to evaluate the probability distribution function of D . An analogous problem for the Poisson process on the plane is also considered.     

What Drives Shareholder Reaction and Wealth Effect in Block Trades? Evidence from the Warsaw Stock Exchange

The main objective of this article is to present the determinants of shareholder reaction to block trades and their wealth effect on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The positive abnormal returns obtained for the entire sample indicate that block trades create shareholder value. Shareholders reacted positively to block trades without a control transfer in the Polish market, and their reaction was stronger than in the US market. Abnormal returns of block trades concluded at a discount were twice as high as those for the entire sample. Moreover, cross-border block trades had a negative impact on shareholder value creation, as did financial investors as an acquirer. However, cumulative average abnormal returns (CAARs) were driven up by the relative power of minority shareholders (ocean) prior to the transaction. The absolute size of the block acquired by an investor was also observed to have a positive impact on price rises and abnormal returns.     

Transmission of monetary policy and exchange rate shocks under foreign currency lending

This paper analyses the differences in reaction of domestic and foreign currency lending to monetary and exchange rate shocks, using a panel VAR model estimated for the three biggest Central and Eastern European countries (Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary). Our results point toward a drop in domestic currency loans and an increase of foreign currency credit in reaction to monetary policy tightening in Poland and Hungary, suggesting that the presence of foreign currency debt weakens the transmission of monetary policy. A currency depreciation shock leads to an initial decline in foreign currency lending, but also in loans denominated in domestic currency as central banks react to a weaker exchange rate by increasing the interest rates. However, after several quarters, credit in foreign currency accelerates, indicating that borrowers start using it to substitute for depressed domestic currency lending.     

The contribution of immigration from Ukraine to economic growth in Poland

Review of World Economics - From 2014 onwards Poland witnessed an unprecedented inflow of immigrant workers from Ukraine. Coupled with strong labour demand, this surge in labour supply provided a...     

Fiscal tensions and risk premium

Empirica - The main goal of the paper is to analyse one-dimensional, isolated impact of particular variables which are used in the literature as explanatory variables for risk premium following...