Continuous-time term structure models: Forward measure approach

The problem of term structure of interest rates modelling is considered in a continuous-time framework. The emphasis is on the bond prices, forward bond prices and so-called LIBOR rates, rather than on the instantaneous continuously compounded rates as in most traditional models. Forward and spot probability measures are introduced in this general set-up. Two conditions of no-arbitrage between bonds and cash are examined. A process of savings account implied by an arbitrage-free family of bond prices is identified by means of a multiplicative decomposition of semimartingales. The uniqueness of an implied savings account is established under fairly general conditions. The notion of a family of forward processes is introduced, and the existence of an associated arbitrage-free family of bond prices is examined. A straightforward construction of a lognormal model of forward LIBOR rates, based on the backward induction, is presented.     

Cross channel effects of search engine advertising on brick & mortar retail sales: Meta analysis of large scale field experiments on Google.com

We investigate the cross channel effects of search engine advertising on Google.com on sales in brick and mortar retail stores. Obtaining causal and actionable estimates in this context is challenging: Brick and mortar store sales vary widely on a weekly basis; offline media dominate the marketing budget; search advertising and demand are contemporaneously correlated; and estimates have to be credible to overcome agency issues between the online and offline marketing groups. We report on a meta-analysis of a population of 15 independent field experiments, in which 13 well-known U.S. multi-channel retailers spent over $4 Million in incremental search advertising. In test markets category keywords were maintained in positions 1-3 for 76 product categories with no search advertising on these keywords in the control markets. Outcomes measured include sales in the advertised categories, total store sales and Return on Ad Spending. We estimate the average effect of each outcome for this population of experiments using a Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) model. The estimates from the HB model provide causal evidence that increasing search engine advertising on broad keywords on Google.com had a positive effect on sales in brick and mortar stores for the advertised categories for this population of retailers. There also was a positive effect on total store sales. Hence the increase in sales in the advertised categories was incremental to the retailer net of any sales borrowed from non-advertised categories. The total store sales increase was a meaningful improvement compared to the baseline sales growth rates. The average Return on Ad Spend (ROAS) is positive, but does not breakeven on average although several retailers achieved or exceeded break-even based only on brick and mortar sales. We examine the robustness of our findings to alternative assumptions about the data specific to this set of experiments. Our estimates suggest online and offline are linked markets, that media planners should account for the offline effects in the planning and execution of search advertising campaigns, and that these effects should be adjusted by category and retailer. Extensive replication and a unique research protocol ensure that our results are general and credible.     

Performance of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure in light of historical experience in the CEE region

This article applies set of 24 baseline and auxiliary indicators included into the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure framework on the conditions of 17 CEE countries to assess their predictive power given the policy pre-determined and optimal thresholds for the period 1991–2014. Our results suggest that the optimal official thresholds might either be excessively too accommodative (public and private, total or external debt levels), overly conservative (current account balance, export market share and nominal unit labour costs), or with less informative value (labour market characteristics) for set of transition economies. Indicators with higher predictive power belong predominantly to the group of external imbalances indicators.     

A valuation algorithm for indifference prices in incomplete markets

A probabilistic iterative algorithm is constructed for indifference prices of claims in a multiperiod incomplete model. At each time step, a nonlinear pricing functional is applied that isolates and prices separately the two types of risk. It is represented solely in terms of risk aversion and the pricing measure, a martingale measure that preserves the conditional distribution of unhedged risks, given the hedgeable ones, from their historical counterparts.Received: 1 September 2003, Mathematics Subject Classification: 93E20, 60G40, 60J75JEL Classification: C61, G11, G13The second author acknowledges partial support from NSF Grants DMS 0102909 and DMS 0091946.     

Computer-assisted constrained approval voting

Approval voting, proposed independently by several analysts in the 1970s, is a voting system in which voters can vote for as many candidates as they like in multicandidate elections. Recently, S.J. Brams modified this system, introducing so-called constrained approval voting. It is designed for a professional association to ensure equitable representation of different interests. In his new system approval voting is combined with the constraints on the number of persons that can be elected from different categories of members. In the present paper the problem of constrained approval voting is formulated (following the work of R.F. Potthoff) as an integer programming problem. Some computational aspects of this problem are discussed. The paper presents a numerical example illustrating a possibility to apply the discussed voting procedure in the election of members of the Committee for Organization and Management Sciences of the Polish Academy of Sciences.     

The Role and Current Status of IFRS in the Completion of National Accounting Rules – Evidence from Poland

ABSTRACT

We outline the process of implementation of the accounting Directive 2013/34/EU by the Republic of Poland in the context of references to IFRS. The purpose of the article is to determine to what extent IFRS are used by actors taking part in the legislative and enforcement processes. The accounting regulation in Poland comprises an act of Parliament and the regulations of the Ministry of Finance. As a result the regulation is relatively succinct and many elements present in IFRS are not covered, while the issues of record-keeping and verification of accounting documentation receive more attention. A review of the responses to a call for opinions reveals that IFRS are rarely mentioned.     

Impression Management in Letters to Shareholders: Evidence from Poland

We study impression management in an emerging market setting with high ownership concentration. Using content analysis, we identify impression management techniques in a sample of letters to shareholders written in the Polish language by the 60 largest companies listed at the Warsaw Stock Exchange in 2008 and 2013. We find patterns in the occurrence of these techniques with the use of k-means clustering: the largest cluster includes letters that praise the management, while the rest include defensive arguments, discussions of negative outcomes and short, formal letters. The more concentrated ownership is, the shorter the letters are, which indicates that management invest less effort in communicating with investors. This is particularly visible in companies held by insiders, which tend to produce short, formal letters, devoid of impression management. In contrast, companies controlled by foreign shareholders prepare letters that are longer and which are more likely to present defensive arguments, while institutional non-controlling shareholders favour extensive disclosure. The results shed light upon communication practices in Central and Eastern Europe, and offer implications for regulators and managers that may help strengthen the information environment in regional stock markets.     

Thinking Outside the Block: Projected Phases of Blockchain Integration in the Accounting Industry

This paper aims to propound a thorough and circumspect analysis of the implications of blockchain technology in the accounting profession and its broader industry. The analysis begins with a summary of early developments by first movers and how they are harnessing blockchain technology to improve business practices. Concomitantly, the paper will go on to discuss how this technology will streamline accounting processes, specifically as the technology approaches critical mass. Finally, a discussion of its long‐term implications will follow through a more philosophical and conceptual dialogue. Throughout the paper, criticisms will be raised to address concerns regarding blockchain's widespread use.     

Green Microfinance in Europe

As global warming continues to attract growing levels of attention, various stakeholders (states, general public, investors, and lobbyists) have put climate change on corporate agendas and expect firms to disclose relevant greenhouse gas (GHG) information. In this paper, we investigate the consistency of the GHG information voluntarily disclosed by French listed firms through two different communication channels: corporate reports (CR) and the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP). More precisely, we contrast the amounts of GHG emissions reported and the methodological explanations provided (named ‘traceability’) in each channel. Consistent with a stakeholder theory perspective, we find that GHG amounts are significantly lower in the CR than in the CDP. We also find that firms increase the CR figures’ traceability when there is a discrepancy between disclosures in the two channels. We suggest that the aim of this greater traceability is to enhance information credibility across the different channels used.