Application of spatial resource data to assist in farmland valuation

A land transaction is generally not a recurring action for most buyers and sellers, their experience and knowledge are limited, for this reason the services of property agents and valuers are sometimes used, just to get more information available. The condition of insufficient information and the inability to observe differences in land productivity gives rise to the undervaluation of good land and overvaluation of poor land. The advent of the Internet made access to comprehensive information sources easier for property agents and valuers whose critical time and resources can now be effectively managed through Geographic Information System (GIS) integrated workflow processes. This study aims to develop the blueprint for a farm valuation support system (FVSS) that assists valuers in their application of the comparable sales method by enabling them to do the following: (1) Rapid identification of the location of the subject property and transaction properties on an electronic map. (2) Comparison of the subject property with the transaction properties in terms of value contributing attributes that can be expressed in a spatial format, mainly (a) location and (b) land resource quality factors not considered in existing valuation systems that primarily focus on residential property. An algorithm, that generates an index value, was developed to allow easy comparison of the land of a subject property and that of transaction properties. This index value distinguishes the proposed FVSS from other existing property valuation systems and can therefore be used by valuers as a first approximation of a property's soil suitability, before doing further field work. The FVSS was successfully developed and tested, primarily using data obtained in the Western Cape, South Africa.     

Global models applied to agricultural and trade policies: a review and assessment

The continuing process of global integration bears implications for farmers and related supplying and processing industries in all parts of the world, but also for the rest of the world economy. An assessment of agricultural and trade policy impacts is bound to be complex and is often supported by quantitative modeling analysis. This article provides an assessment of the present state of applied modelling in the area of trade and agricultural policies. We provide in this paper a comparative assessment of alternative modelling approaches, considering a total of 16 partial equilibrium and general equilibrium models. The assessment includes theoretical modelling foundations, datasets employed and institutional aspects, such as model maintenance and dissemination of results. A typology of models is provided by structuring the assessment along a clear set of evaluation criteria.     

Testing the induced innovation hypothesis: an error correction model of South African agriculture

This paper applies cointegration techniques to a model of induced innovation based on the two-stage constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function. This approach results in direct tests of the inducement hypothesis, which are applied to data for South African commercial agriculture for the period 1947–1991. South African data is used because the policy changes have been substantial enough that the factor and price ratios have turning-points, rather than being monotonie. The time series properties of the variables are checked, cointegration is established, and an error correction model (ECM) constructed, allowing factor substitution to be separated from technological change. Finally, the ECM formulation is subjected to causality tests, which show that both the factor price ratios and R&D and extension expenditures are Granger-prior to the factor-saving biases of technological change. Thus, each stage of the analysis corroborates the inducement hypothesis. However, straightforward price-inducement is only part of the explanation of changes in factor ratios. Policy-induced innovation, in response to tax concessions and subsidised credit, is also present.     

Space matters: the importance of amenity in planning metropolitan growth

Most Australian capital cities require many 100,000s of additional dwellings to accommodate demographic change and population pressures in the next two or three decades. Urban growth will come in the form of infill, consolidation and urban expansion. Plans to redevelop environmental amenities such as parks and open green spaces are regularly being put forward to local councils and State governments. Maintaining parks and reserves represents one of the largest costs to local councils. To aid in the evaluation of some of the different propositions, we report the results of a spatial hedonic pricing model with fixed effects for Adelaide, South Australia. The results indicate that the private benefits of a close proximity to golf courses, green space sporting facilities, or the coast, are in the order $0.54, $1.58, and $4.99 per metre closer (when evaluated at the median respectively). The historic Adelaide Parklands add $1.55 to a property’s value for each additional metre closer. We demonstrate how the estimated model could be used to calculate how local private benefits capitalized in property values change with changes in the configuration of a park.     

Endogenous International Technology Spillovers and Biased Technical Change in Agriculture

This paper analyzes trade-related knowledge flows from an innovating country to other countries. It is assumed that knowledge is embodied in commodities traded between countries and that the potential productivity of this knowledge is determined by the local usability of foreign technologies. The usability of foreign knowledge is dependent on the local absorption capacity (such as knowledge infrastructure and human capital) and on structural differences (factor endowments or climate) between countries. In agriculture, a large portion of the knowledge is embodied in inputs which cause factor-biased technical change in the receiving sectors. Trade-related knowledge transmission is introduced in an applied multi-region general equilibrium model (GTAP) to study the macro-economic and sectoral impacts of knowledge spillovers and of trade policies. Endogenous embodied technology spillovers bear some important implications for trade policy, because protective measures preclude countries not only from cheaper imports but also from foreign technologies.     

Repeated audit controls

An important task of auditors is to check whether recorded values are correct. From the number (or total) of the errors found in a sample, upper confidence limits for the fraction (or total) of the errors in the population are calculated by standard methods.
Even auditors are human, however, and may make mistakes: errors may remain unnoticed. As administrative rules and regulations are becoming more and more complicated, this kind of auditors' mistakes tends to occur more frequently. Hence, there is an increasing need to check the auditing process itself. This can be achieved by checking a subsample of audited values a second time, now by an error-free supervisor.
This paper investigates the consequences of the (possible) occurrence of errors in this subsample. A simple and analytically attractive model is presented for the number of errors found in this double inspection scheme. Maximum likelihood estimators are derived for the population fraction of errors and the probability of an error remaining unnoticed. Based on that, an exact upper confidence limit for the population fraction of errors is calculated, treating the probability of an unnoticed error as a nuisance parameter. Our method was originally developed during a recent Dutch case study: in a subsample of already audited values one additional error was found by the supervisor. It is shown that, as a consequence, the upper confidence limit is increased very sizeably.     

The Delphi method as early warning: Linking global societal trends to future radicalization and terrorism in The Netherlands

A Delphi study was performed to answer the question: Which global societal trends relate to future radicalization and subsequent terrorism in the Netherlands? An inventory of two hundred global societal trends and a literature study of radicalization together served as briefing of the participants in the Delphi study. The first two rounds were conducted in anonymous writing. The third round was a face to face focus group meeting. In the first and second round participants scored the trends, adjusted their scores relative to others and provided arguments, and in the focus group meeting, themes were discussed in which the participants remained to have strong opposite views. This approach emphasizes divergence in opinion (‘dissensus’), as opposed to convergence (‘consensus’). Consensus seeking to us seems to be the dominant application of Delphi, but we emphasize the value of seeking dissensus. We hypothesize that in those cases where the opposite views that were discussed kept their ground, this Delphi study may have found early warnings of future radicalization.The essence of this paper is that it is possible, with limited effort, to get a handle on the complex and poorly defined subject of global societal trends influencing future radicalization. Application of the Dissensus Delphi method provided a selection of early warnings that may be looked into with future research.