Do Inflation‐Linked Bonds Still Diversify?

The diversifying power of inflation-linked (IL) bonds relative to traditional asset classes has changed significantly. In this paper, we study the dynamics of conditional volatilities and correlations for three asset classes, IL bonds, nominal bonds and equities, in the USA and Europe. Using a DCC-MVGARCH for the period 1997–2007, we highlight the change that took place in 2003. Although IL bonds once had definite diversification power, they are now highly correlated with nominal bonds and have reached similar volatility levels. As a result, the two asset classes are practically substitutable. This seems to be due to more stable inflation expectations and to a more liquid IL bond market. Although diversification was a valuable reason for introducing IL bonds in a global portfolio before 2003, this is no longer the case. Dynamic portfolio optimisation using our estimates of conditional correlations and volatilities clearly demonstrates that the optimal weight of IL bonds in a portfolio decreased sharply in 2003 in favour of nominal bonds and equities.     

Strategic individual assessment: Issues in providing reliable descriptions

Individual assessment involves one psychologist making an assessment of an individual for personnel-related purposes. Individual assessment practice is reviewed, and research on reliability is presented. A study examining the comparability of conclusions reached by consumers is presented. Eighty-six students and thirty-eight managers read nine narrative assessment reports (three of each of three job candidates) and attempted to determine which reports described the same candidate. None of the subjects could correctly group the nine reports; a sizeable proportion did no better than chance in grouping the reports. Implications for assessors and consumers of individual assessments are discussed.     

“The Worse You Behave, The More You Seem, to be Rewarded”: Bullying in Nursing as Organizational Corruption

This paper reports findings from the first, qualitative stage of a national sequential, mixed method study of bullying in the Australian nursing workplace. Twenty-six nurses who had experience of workplace bullying were recruited from two Australian public sector health care organizations. Examining the narrative data from the viewpoint of bullying being a corrupt activity we present an alternative perspective on group acts of bullying. By exploring bullying as corrupt behaviour, this paper challenges the assumption that bullying can be principally considered a series of isolated events stemming from interpersonal conflict, organizational pressures, or poor work design. Corruption in organizations has not previously been linked with or compared to bullying. In revealing the manner in which actors can engage in corrupt conduct that includes bullying, the findings from our study offer important implications for the management of workplace bullying as a serious and corrupt activity.     

ANTIDUMPING,INTRA‐INDUSTRY TRADE,AND QUALITY REVERSALS

We examine an export game where two (home and foreign) firms produce vertically differentiated products. The foreign firm is more R&D efficient and is based in a larger and richer market. The unique (risk‐dominant) Nash equilibrium exhibits intra‐industry trade, and the foreign producer manufactures a higher‐quality product. When transport costs are low, unilateral dumping by the foreign firm arises; otherwise, reciprocal dumping occurs. For some parameters, a domestic antidumping policy leads to a quality reversal in the international market whereby the home firm becomes the quality leader. This policy is desirable for the implementing country, though world welfare decreases.     

COOPERATION: THE POWER OF A SINGLE WORD? SOME EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE ON WORDING AND GENDER EFFECTS IN A GAME OF CHICKEN

Framing has been widely shown to affect decision making. In this paper, we investigate experimentally whether, and to what extent, cooperative behaviour in a Game of Chicken may be impacted by a very basic change in the labelling of the strategies. Our within‐subject experimental design involves two treatments. The only difference between them is that we introduce either a socially‐oriented wording (I cooperate/I do not cooperate) or colours (red/blue) to designate strategies. The level of cooperation appears to be higher in the socially‐oriented context, but only when uncertainty as regards the type of the partner is manipulated, and especially among females.     

Hyperinflation in a small open economy with a fixed exchange rate: A post Keynesian view

This paper examines the emergence of hyperinflation in a small open economy with a fixed exchange rate from a post Keynesian perspective. Three variables play key roles: distributive conflict, external debt, and expectations about the exchange rate. First, we propose a short-run Kaleckian macro model. Then, we study the long-run behavior of the model by endogenizing the price level and foreign indebtedness. We conclude that the existence of expectations about the nominal exchange rate is crucial to explaining the emergence of hyperinflation.     

Forecasting GDP over the Business Cycle in a Multi‐Frequency and Data‐Rich Environment

This paper merges two specifications recently developed in the forecasting literature: the MS‐MIDAS model (Guérin and Marcellino, 2013) and the factor‐MIDAS model (Marcellino and Schumacher, 2010). The MS‐factor MIDAS model that we introduce incorporates the information provided by a large data set consisting of mixed frequency variables and captures regime‐switching behaviours. Monte Carlo simulations show that this specification tracks the dynamics of the process and predicts the regime switches successfully, both in‐sample and out‐of‐sample. We apply this model to US data from 1959 to 2010 and properly detect recessions by exploiting the link between GDP growth and higher frequency financial variables.     

What divides the first and second generations? Family time of arrival and educational outcomes for immigrant youth

In this article, I develop a measure of host country experience, which I call “relative time of arrival,” to explore differences between first- and second-generation immigrants. This measure is finer than immigrant generation and expands on the widely used measures of years since migration and age at migration. It is scaled so that zero indicates that a child was born in the same year that the family migrated, and the negative side of the scale measures parents' host country experience before the child's birth. I then use relative time of arrival to assess whether parents' host country experience before birth matters and generally find that it does not. I also study the dividing line between the first and second generations, specifically, whether there are differences in educational outcomes between early arriving first-generation immigrants and second-generation immigrants whose parents arrived shortly before birth. For most outcomes considered, I find that the transition between the first and second generations is relatively smooth, indicating that these groups are not as distinct as often thought. Thus, observed differences between the first and second generations are driven by the lower performance of late-arriving first-generation children.