Uncertainty and communication strategy formation

Managers may affect the consumer information search and acquisition process and, thus, consumer preference by designing communications and selecting information channels that are responsive to consumers' uncertainty-associated information needs. However, measures of uncertainty that would be appropriate for general use in measuring product-attribute associated uncertainty have not been developed and assessed. In this paper, two methodologies that may be appropriate are presented and evaluated. Comparison of the methods shows both approaches to be about equal when evaluated with respect to convergent and face validity, test-retest reliability, and the ability of each measure to predict preference. Possible uses of product-attribute uncertainty measures in assisting managers to formulate communications strategy are discussed.     

Pro-cyclicality beyond business cycle

We show that pro-cyclicality is inherent in risk measure estimates based on historical data. Taking the example of VaR, we show that the empirical VaR measure is mean-reverting over a 1-year horizon when the portfolio is held fixed. It means that a capital requirement rule based on historical measurements of VaR tends in calm times to understate future required capital and tends in volatile times to overstate it. To quantify this pro-cyclicality, we develop a simple and efficient methodology, which we apply to major equity market indices. We make the interesting point that the pro-cyclicality property holds true even in a world with constant volatility, though the empirical magnitude of the mean-reversion is greater than what would be observed in that special case.     

Adolescents’ brand sensitivity in apparel: influence of three socialization agents

Wearing clothes with prestigious brand names seems to be very important for adolescents. This phenomenon was studied in the context of consumer socialization by examining the influence of three socialization agents, namely parents, peers and TV, on the development of French Canadian adolescents’ brand sensitivity and their relative importance. Controlling for socio‐economic variables, multiple regression analyses were conducted separately for boys and for girls. For both genders, brand sensitivity is related to peer influence. Girls’ brand sensitivity is related to the importance fathers give to clothing brands. TV exposure is not related to adolescents’ brand sensitivity. For boys and girls, peers represent the most important predictor of this consumer socialization. The results are discussed in the light of social and economic pressures and family relationships.     

Irish Manufacturing Export Dynamics: Evidence of Exporter Heterogeneity in Boom and Slump Periods

This paper explores export dynamics, using an unbalanced plant-level panel data set of Irish manufacturing plants between 1985 and 2003. The analysis focuses closely on two periods: one of exceptional export growth and one of significant export decline. We find strong evidence of exporter heterogeneity, as measured by individual exporter behaviour running contrary to aggregate trend, in both boom and slump years. The degree of heterogeneity differs markedly by sub-sector and firm size. Despite high levels of entry/exit into and out of export markets in the boom/slump, the export dynamics are dominated by the export activities of continuing exporters. JEL no. E32, F14     

Book reviews

Strategic Leaning in Action Tony Grundy London, McGraw-Hill, 1994, 218 pp. ISBN 0-07-707825-X.

The Knowledge-creating Company Ikujiro Nonaka & Hirotaka Takeuchi Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1995, 382pp, £24.95 (hbk), ISBV 0-19-509269-4.

The Challenge of the 21st Century: Managing Technology and Ourselves in a Shrinking World Harold A. Linstone with Ian I Mitroff Albay, Ny, State University of New York Press, 1994, 406 pp, $19.95 (hbk) ISBN0-7914-1949-5.

Practical Steps for Aligning Information Technology with Business Strategies: How to Achieve a Competitive Advantage Bernard H. Boar New York, John Wiley, 1995, 241 pp, ISBN 0-471-07637-6.

Strategic Innovation: An International Casebook on Strategic Management Charles Baden-Fuller & Martyn Pitt (Eds) London, Routledge, 1996, 461 pp, £16.95 (pbk), ISBN 0-451-12870-6.     

A legacy of control? The capital subsidy for housing,and informal settlement intervention in South Africa

Control over the urbanization process in South Africa was redefined after the mid‐1980s, when the policy of ‘orderly urbanization’ replaced that of racially based ‘influx control’. In the early 1990s, under the inspiration of the private sector‐funded policy think tank, the Urban Foundation, a standardized capital subsidy was introduced as a means of financing the orderly settlement of poor households on peri‐urban land. Currently, the capital subsidy may be considered the cornerstone of the South African national housing policy. This article examines how the capital subsidy framework has perpetuated the practice of control by submitting urban expansion in the lowest income sector to rigid regulation. It discusses recent responses from various sectors of the South African society, while also examining how continuity in the intervention approach was maintained from previous decades. The article points to a need to depart from the capital subsidy framework as a basis for informal settlement intervention in South Africa. En Afrique du Sud, la maîtrise du processus d'urbanisation a été redéfinie vers la fin des années 1980, alors que la politique publique de ‘l'urbanisation ordonnée’ remplaçait celle du ‘contrô le des flux’ aux critères raciaux. Au début des années 1990, inspirée d'un groupe de réflexion stratégique financé par le secteur privé, la Urban Foundation, une subvention d'équipement classique, a été lancée comme moyen de financer l'implantation ordonnée des ménages pauvres dans les terres péri‐urbaines. Actuellement, la subvention d'équipement peut être considérée comme la pierre angulaire de la politique nationale du logement en Afrique du Sud. L'article examine comment le système des subventions d'équipement a perpétué l'exercice du contrôle en soumettant l'expansion urbaine à une réglementation rigide pour la population aux plus faibles revenus. Il étudie les réactions récentes de plusieurs secteurs de la société sud‐africaine, tout en approfondissant comment la continuité de cette démarche a été préservée à partir des dernières décennies. Ces travaux soulignent la nécessité de sortir du système des subventions d'équipement comme fondement d'intervention pour l'habitat sauvage en Afrique du Sud.     

The potential of internet technologies: insights from the public sector

The objective of this paper is to examine the implications of the internet for public sector organisations. Although there are considerable barriers to the full implementation of internet technologies, the findings illustrate that the internet presents public sector organisations with the potential to enhance the ways in which they fulfil the needs of users of their products and services.