Capital structure： The Italian market perspective

This article first investigates the determinants of＂capital structure＂ and the extent to which financial structure policy contributes to the creation of shareholder value in Italian companies through a survey of 76 CFOs of Italian listed non-financial companies, and revealed that the key driver is the quest for financial flexibility, necessary to combine effectively capital structure policy with the other two levers of value creation, investment policy and payout policy. These three value creation drivers are autonomous, but this empirical study reveals a clear hierarchy that links liability policy （capital structure and payout） to asset policy （investments） leading companies to make sub-optimal financial structure decisions that may not minimize the weighted average cost of capital, though ensuring the financial flexibility necessary to activate their principal lever of value creation, investment policy, effectively and without excessive constraints. A major finding in a subsequent benchmarking exercise is that Italian ＂family capitalism＂ affects corporate governance and therefore capital structure decisions. This finding may not be restricted to the Italian market, but could apply to all countries in which ownership structures are centered on very few shareholders with weak financial market control and where banks often play a crucial role in the governance of companies.     

Correlated risks,bivariate utility and optimal choices

In this paper, we consider a decision-maker facing a financial risk flanked by a non-financial background risk such as health or environmental risk. A decision has to be made about the amount of an investment (in the financial dimension) resulting in a future benefit either in the same dimension (savings) or in the other dimension (environmental quality or health improvement). In this framework, we study the impact of the correlation between the two risks on optimal choices. In the saving problem, we find conditions ensuring that positive correlation between the two risks implies that the optimal amount of savings increases. These conditions involve specific requirements on the direct and cross derivatives of the two-argument utility function. Similarly, we find a different and specific set of conditions ensuring that the same conclusion on optimal investment for health (environmental) improvement is reached. The two sets of conditions determined support the conclusion that the signs of the derivatives of the two-argument utility function should alternate.     

Ample Consumption Period Available Until Use-by Dates: A Potential Marketing Position for Store Brands

SUMMARY

Store brands, when moving upscale, inevitably relinquish their value for money appeal and therefore require some quality dimension to compete. This article is proposing that the promise of “generous” use-by dates as a surrogate for quality could be considered as a positioning plank to promote store brands as alternatives to manufactured brands. Logit analysis is employed to explain shoppers' perceptions and responses to use-by dates, of products that they regularly buy, and of alternative products that they have never bought before if the use-by dates of their regular items are perceived to be too short.     

Export Product Composition Indexes in Developing Countries: The Case of Peru, 1993–2004

Liberal structural reforms associated to changes in the export product composition may affect economic growth, and at the same time, may yield biases in the official standard trade index numbers from developing countries and error measures in the real rate of economic and exports growth. This paper proposes a set of index numbers which incorporates the export product composition in a standard export index in such a way that changes in the current export value can be decomposed into: price changes; quantity changes, and product composition changes. In the applications of those indexes for the Peruvian case, it is found that the estimated overvaluations in the official annual average rate of growth of the real exports value and the GDP, were, respectively 3% and 0.6%, for the period 1993–2004.     

A comparative analysis of stock market cycles

In this article, we date the ‘recession’ and ‘expansion’ phases of 46 stock markets around the world from December 1994 to September 2013. We use the Harding and Pagan methodology to identify peaks and troughs in these stock market indices. This approach enables us to establish periods of synchronization between the markets based on the timing of peaks and troughs and to measure this synchronization by means of the Harding and Pagan statistic. We find that several recent world crisis episodes and simultaneous recoveries can be identified with this method. We also present evidence demonstrating an increase in the pro-cyclicality of stock markets around the world.     

An investigation of customer order flow in the foreign exchange market

This paper examines the effect that heterogeneous customer orders flows have on exchange rates by using a new, and the largest, proprietary dataset of weekly net order flow segmented by customer type across nine of the most liquid currency pairs. We make several contributions. Firstly, we investigate the extent to which customer order flow can help to explain exchange rate movements over and above the influence of macro-economic variables. Secondly, we address the issue of whether order flows contain (private) information which explain exchange rates changes. Thirdly, we look at the usefulness of order flow in forecasting exchange rate movements at longer horizons than those generally considered in the micro-structure literature. Finally we address the question of whether the out-of-sample exchange rate forecasts generated by order flows can be employed profitably in the foreign exchange markets.     

An unlikely Phoenix: The recovery of Argentina’s monetary and financial system from its ashes in the 2000s and its lessons

The study discusses the recovery of the Argentine financial system after the crisis of the so called convertibility regime of the 1990s. The Argentine macroeconomic regime established in 1991 and based on the hard peg of the peso to the dollar at a 1 to 1 parity ended in a multiple crisis in 2001–2. Beyond the default on the public debt, the crisis also involved the breakdown of the domestic financial system, and an almost complete isolation of the country from the international financial markets as a consequence of the default. Under such a deep crisis and the consequent uncertainty, the recovery of the solvency of the financial institutions was an almost insurmountable enterprise. However, with a gradualist approach (contrary to the advice of the International Monetary Fund) and a degree of “regulatory forbearance,” the financial and monetary authorities were able to recover the health of the financial system, which became much more resilient to shocks, even if its development has been very slow and, as a consequence, the contribution of domestic credit to the economic expansion of the 2000s can be considered almost negligible.     

Licensing Exam Difficulty and Entry Salaries in the US Market for Lawyers

This article provides evidence of a correlation between licensing exam difficulty and salaries in a regulated profession. Exam difficulty is positively correlated with salaries across states and over time, both at the aggregate and individual state levels. The magnitude of this correlation is substantial: a 1 per cent increase in exam difficulty implies a 1.7 per cent increase in median entry‐level salaries. Exam difficulty does not significantly affect the inter‐quartile difference in salaries.     

New development: Are social impact bonds (SIBs) viable in Italy? A new roadmap

This paper presents a roadmap to support the development of social impact bonds (SIBs) in Italy. Current barriers and opportunities are explained. SIBs should be piloted in areas where the cultural, ideological, technical and governance barriers are low. Accurate measurement systems will be necessary and an effective governance structure needs to be agreed. With careful piloting and follow-up, the SIB model could be a solution to welfare and public service funding in Italy.