Heterogeneous Firms,Globalisation and the Distance Puzzle

Despite the strong pace of globalisation, the distance effect on trade is persistent or even growing over time (Disdier and Head, 2008). To solve this distance puzzle, we use the recently developed gravity equation estimator from Helpman et al. (2008) (HMR henceforth). Using three different data sets, we find that the distance coefficient increases over time when ordinary least squares (OLS) is used, while the non‐linear estimation of HMR leads to a decline in the distance coefficient over time. The distance puzzle, thus, arises from a growing bias of OLS estimates. The latter is explained by an increase in the importance of the bias from omitting the number of heterogeneous exporting firms relative to the bias from omitting zero trade flows. Furthermore, we show that including zero trade flows cannot solve the distance puzzle when using HMR. The HMR estimates are strongly correlated with the time pattern in freight costs reported by Hummels (2007).     

Making Sense of the Third Way

Books reviewed in this article:
Anthony Giddens, The Third Way
Tony Blair and Gerhard Schroeder, The Way Forward for Europe's Social Democrats – A Proposal     

Earthquake effects on tourism in central Italy

This paper proposes an approach to economic assessment of the impact on tourist flows of the earthquake that hit the Umbria region in Central Italy on September 26, 1997. Local arrivals in Assisi fell drastically the month following the main shock, compared to the same month of the previous year. The event study methodology, frequently applied in finance, is employed to evaluate the statistical relevance of the shock over time and space. A further and straightforward application of the event study analysis assesses the substantial amount of loss between October 1997 and June 1998 due to the drop of tourism business.     

Shopping value,tourist satisfaction and positive word of mouth: the mediating role of souvenir shopping satisfaction

We propose new insights into key satisfaction outcomes for souvenir retailers, such as positive word-of-mouth recommendations, seeking deeper comprehension of overall tourist satisfaction determinants, by analysing the mediating role of tourist souvenir shopping satisfaction. We apply variance-based structural equation modelling by means of partial least squares to a sample of 408 tourists all of whom had purchased souvenirs. The results suggest that tourist shopping satisfaction partially mediates the relation between shopping value and positive word of mouth, while tourist shopping satisfaction completely mediates the relation between shopping value and overall tourist satisfaction. The results and their implications are then discussed to arrive at pertinent conclusions on tourist souvenir shopping satisfaction.     

Do financial variables help predict the state of the business cycle in small open economies? Evidence from Switzerland

We analyze the forecasting ability of financial variables to predict the state of the Swiss business cycle up to eight quarters ahead. Overall, our results suggest that financial variables convey leading information for the prediction of business cycles, even when applied to a small open economy. However, we clearly find that model specifications need to be extended to include variables accounting for external shocks, such as exchange rates or international commodity prices. It also appears that the forecasting contribution of individual variables changes over time. Specifically, in the last two decades, stock market liquidity has replaced the term spread as the best single predictor.     

Can Language Predict Bankruptcy? The Explanatory Power of Tone in 10‐K Filings

We examine whether the language used in 10‐K filings reflects a firm's risk of bankruptcy. Our sample contains 424 bankrupt U.S. companies in the period 1994–2015 and we use propensity score matching to find healthy matches. Based on a logit model of failing and vital firms, our findings indicate that firms at risk of bankruptcy use significantly more negative words in their 10‐K filings than comparable vital companies. This relationship holds up until three years prior to the actual bankruptcy filing. With our investigation, we confirm the results from previous accounting and finance research. 10‐K filings contain valuable information beyond the reported financials. Additionally, we show that 10‐Ks filed in the year of a firm's collapse contain an increased number of litigious words relative to healthy businesses. This indicates that the management of failing firms is already dealing with legal issues when reporting financials prior to bankruptcy. Our results suggest that analysts ought to include the presentation of financials in their assessment of bankruptcy risk as it contains explanatory and predictive power beyond the financial ratios.     

Risk‐Adjusted Measures of Value Creation in Financial Institutions

Abstract Many financial institutions assess portfolio decisions using RAROC, the ratio of expected return to risk (or ‘economic’) capital. We use asset pricing theory to determine the appropriate hurdle rate, finding that this varies with the skewness of asset returns. We quantify this discrepancy under a range of assumptions showing that the RAROC hurdle rate differs substantially, being higher by a factor of five or more for equity which has a right skew compared to debt which has a pronounced left skew, and also between different qualities of debt exposure. We discuss implications for both financial institution risk management and supervision.