Do Industries Explain Momentum?

This paper documents a strong and prevalent momentum effect in industry components of stock returns which accounts for much of the individual stock momentum anomaly. Specifically, momentum investment strategies, which buy past winning stocks and sell past losing stocks, are significantly less profitable once we control for industry momentum. By contrast, industry momentum investment strategies, which buy stocks from past winning industries and sell stocks from past losing industries, appear highly profitable, even after controlling for size, book-to-market equity, individual stock momentum, the cross-sectional dispersion in mean returns, and potential microstructure influences.     

Competition in the Pay-TV Market

This paper discusses competition in the emerging pay-TV market. Economic features of the industry are described, and the current state of the market in the UK is summarized. Two simple formal models of the industry are analyzed: First the danger of two vertically integrated pay-TV networks entering into collusive agreements to exchange programming with each other is discussed; second, the private and social incentives for signing exclusive contracts for premium programming are analyzed. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 1999, 13(4), pp. 257–280. Nuffield College, Oxford OX1 1NF, United Kingdom. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D43, L13, L41, L82.     

Effects of personality traits on visitors attending an exposition: the moderating role of anxiety attachment

Expositions or “expos” are large consumer trade shows representing a catalyst for on-site direct spending by visitors attracted to these events that are promoted by destination marketing organizations, governments, communities, and businesses. The purpose of this study was to develop and test a new research model involving the analysis of five specific personality traits representing pleasure visitors attending an annual expo to provide more meaningful information for destination marketing professionals. This study then examined the effects of how visitor personality traits play upon expo attachment, satisfaction, and revisit intention using anxiety attachment as a moderator. Results revealed the relationships between expo attachment and satisfaction, attachment and revisit intention, and satisfaction and revisit intention were significant. Also, anxiety attachment was shown to moderate the relationships between all visitor personality traits and expo attachment. Accordingly, this study provides theoretical insights for future tourism research and offers new promotional implications for expo practitioners.     

Rational speculative bubbles in the gold futures market: An application of dynamic factor analysis

The existence of speculative bubbles in financial markets has been a longstanding issue under debate. Many financial economists believe that, given the assumption of rational expectations and rational behavior of economic agents, an asset should be priced according to its “market fundamentals.” Others argue that self‐fulfilling rumors of market participants can influence asset prices as well. These self‐fulfilling rumors are initiated by events extraneous to markets and are often called bubbles. The rationality of both expectations and behavior often does not imply that the price of an asset be equal to its fundamental value. In other words, there can be rational deviations of the price from this value—rational bubbles. A rational bubble can arise when the actual market price depends positively on its own expected rate of change, as normally occurs in asset markets. Since agents forming rational expectations do not make systematic prediction errors, the positive relationship between price and its expected rate of change implies a similar relationship between price and its actual rate of change. Under such conditions, the arbitrary, self‐fulfilling expectation of price changes may drive actual price changes independently of market fundamentals; we refer to such a situation as a rational price bubble.¹ © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:79–108, 2001     

EVOLUTION OF COMMUNITY DETERRENCE: EVIDENCE FROM THE NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE

Community and specialized enforcement are recognized as important components of deterring antisocial behavior. To provide insights on the interplay between deterrence methods, we examine the empirical evolution of fighting and scoring in the National Hockey League using time series data. We identify structural changes that correlate with changes in player behavior and rules. In particular, we find that player behavior related to fighting changed 4 or 5 years prior to most rule changes aimed at reducing fighting. We conclude that the decline in fighting in hockey was more closely associated with a change in community rather than specialized deterrence methods. (JEL Z22, D71, L83)     

Justifying Deviant Behavior: The Role of Attributions and Moral Emotions

We present two studies investigating the impact of causal perceptions and the moral emotions of anger, shame, and guilt on the justification of deviant workplace behavior. Study 1 tests our conceptual framework using a sample of undergraduate business students; Study 2 examines a population of practicing physicians. Results varied significantly between the two samples, suggesting that individual and contextual factors play an important role in shaping the perceptual and emotional processes by which individuals form reactions to undesirable affective workplace events. Implications of these findings for the study of ethics, emotions, and attributions, as well as for promoting ethical behavior, are discussed.     

Cost-effectiveness of percutaneous patent foramen ovale closure as secondary stroke prevention

Objective: Compared to medical therapy alone, percutaneous closure of patent foramen ovale (PFO) further reduces risk of recurrent ischemic strokes in carefully selected young to middle-aged patients with a recent cryptogenic ischemic stroke. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of this therapy in the context of the United Kingdom (UK) healthcare system.

Methods: A Markov cohort model consisting of four health states (Stable after index stroke, Post-Minor Recurrent Stroke, Post-Moderate Recurrent Stroke, and Death) was developed to simulate the economic outcomes of device-based PFO closure compared to medical therapy. Recurrent stroke event rates were extracted from a randomized clinical trial (RESPECT) with a median of 5.9-year follow-up. Health utilities and costs were obtained from published sources. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were performed to assess robustness. The model was discounted at 3.5% and reported in 2016 Pounds Sterling.

Results: Compared with medical therapy alone and using a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of £20,000, PFO closure reached cost-effectiveness at 4.2 years. Cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) at 4, 10, and 20 years were ?20,951, ?6,887, and ?2,158, respectively. PFO closure was cost-effective for 89% of PSA iterations at year 10. Sensitivity analyses showed that the model was robust.

Conclusions: Considering the UK healthcare system perspective, percutaneous PFO closure in cryptogenic ischemic stroke patients is a cost-effective stroke prevention strategy compared to medical therapy alone. Its cost-effectiveness was driven by substantial reduction in recurrent strokes and patients’ improved health-related quality-of-life.     

Re-exploring the relationship between flexibility and the external environment

The organizational structure literature has long posited that increases in uncertainty should lead to organic (adaptable) structures [T. Burnes, G.M. Stalker, The Management of Innovation, Tavistock Publications, London, 1961]. Similarly, the operations management literature has focused on the importance of flexibility as a competitive weapon [e.g., [De Meyer et al., 1989] Strategic Manage. J. 10 (1989) 135], and as a response to environmental uncertainty [Manage. Sci. 33 (1987) 509; Manage. Sci. 39 (1993) 395]. However, our recent attempts to empirically validate a relationship between environmental uncertainty and operational flexibility in manufacturing plants have failed to show a significant relationship [J. Operations Manage. 3 (1999) 307]. The present research attempts to rectify these contradictory findings by replicating and extending the works of [Manage. Sci. 33 (1987) 509] as well as [J. Operations Manage. 3 (1999) 307]. The results find no support for the proposition that firms that respond to increased uncertainty with increased flexibility will experience increased performance.