Empirical macroeconomic model of the Finnish economy (EMMA)

This paper provides a review of the empirical macroeconomic model (EMMA) built for forecasting purposes at the Finnish Labour Institute for Economic Research. The model is quite small, consisting of 71 endogenous and 70 exogenous variables. The number of behavioural equations is 15. The basis of the model is Keynesian, although the model has some novel properties. They are the treatment of the supply side and prices that follow the routes of the neoclassical synthesis. The parameters of the model are estimated from quarterly data that cover the years 1990–2005. The model also contains a Kalman-filtered variable to control the deep recession in Finland at the beginning of the '90s. This special feature brings the model closer to the new calibrated models.     

Royalty reform and illegal reporting of harvest volumes under alternative penalty schemes

We study royalty reform in a timber concessions framework. Illegal logging in the form of underreporting of harvesting is modeled. Harvesters can be either risk neutral or risk averse. Detection of illegal logging by the government is imperfect and costly. We focus on the government’s policy problem, solving first for socially optimal royalty and auditing levels, and then examining a revenue-neutral reform toward this benchmark. We find that higher royalty progression will always decrease actual harvest volume regardless of risk preferences for the harvester, but the effect of a reform on reported harvest volume is sensitive to the penalty scheme imposed by the government. If the fine is levied on evaded royalty payments, then higher royalty progression may increase reported harvest volume. But when the fine is levied on undeclared harvest volume, the reverse happens. Higher royalty regression increases actual harvest volume under both penalty schemes, but it may decrease reported harvest volume. Higher regression will increase undeclared harvest volume when the fine is levied on evaded royalty payments.      

芬兰明珠拉彭兰塔市

TheCityofLappeenrantahasalonghistoryasaniagnetfortourists,thegatewaytotheuniquelybeautifullakedistrictofEasternFinland.Nowadays,withnearly60,000inhabitantsLappeenrantaisamodernindustrial,administrativeandeducationalcentreoftheSouthKarelianRegion.Lappeenra…     

Does Output Gap,Labour's Share or Unemployment Rate Drive Inflation?

We propose a new methodology for ranking in probability the commonly proposed drivers of inflation in the new Keynesian model. The approach is based on Bayesian model selection among restricted vector autoregressive (VAR) models, each of which embodies only one or none of the candidate variables as the driver. Simulation experiments suggest that our procedure is superior to the previously used conventional pairwise Granger causality tests in detecting the true driver. Empirical results lend little support to labour share, output gap or unemployment rate as the driver of US inflation.     

Nonparametric Methods for Evaluating Economic Efficiency and Imperfect Competition

This article unifies and extends ideas from nonparametric production analysis and DEA for testing organizational efficiency. We show how the admissible price set can be restricted to account for prior information on prices. These restrictions may relate prices to input and output quantities in order to test noncompetitive behavior of the evaluated decision making unit. While the resulting efficiency tests cannot always be cast into linear programming problems, we discuss various solution strategies for the tests. Thereby we consider the question when does local optimality of the result guarantee global optimality. We also show how the decision maker's preferences, for example ranking information, can be adopted into DEA models in a simple manner. Finally, the approach with price restrictions is illustrated with an application to test noncompetitive behavior of the pulp and paper industries in Finland.     

REGIONAL POLICY-MAKING AND REGIONAL DATA BASES

This paper deals with regional accounting problems in Finland. Regional policy planning problems and special regional characteristics of the country are discussed as a background to the development of regional accounts. Accounting problems such as regional division, regionalization methods, general and special solutions to problems affecting specific sectors of the accounts, and problems in allocating production across regions are dealt with in the paper. In addition, supplementary data such as state income and expenditure data by region and regional input-output calculations, both of which may be needed in regional policy-making, are discussed. In Finland, both types of data have been included in a regional data bank compiled by the Central Statistical Office. For the future, monitoring regional standards of living and observing differences in welfare and in production by region remain important challenges for the development of regional data systems.     

No-till technology: benefits to farmers and the environment? Theoretical analysis and application to Finnish agriculture

We assess theoretically and empirically the private profitabilityand social desirability of conventional tillage and no-tillwhen crop yields, production costs and nutrient and herbiciderunoff damages are taken into account. Based on Finnish experimentaldata, no-till provides higher social and private profit thanconventional tillage for barley but not for oats and wheat,for which the production cost advantage of no-till does notcompensate for lower yields in the private optimum. As regardssocial returns, no-till provides slightly better overall environmentalperformance but, given the existing valuation of nutrient andherbicide runoff damage, this is not enough to give no-tillan advantage in oats and wheat cultivation. Thus, the key factorsdetermining the private and social profitability of no-tilland conventional tillage are yields and production costs ratherthan environmental performance.     

Drivers of holding period firm-level returns in private equity-backed buyouts

We extend the research on the drivers of holding period firm-level returns in private equity (PE)-backed buyouts by examining deal-, industry-, and macroeconomic-level drivers and their interaction. To conduct our study, we use a comprehensive and hand-collected dataset covering exited buyouts in the UK between 1995–2004, and we control for sample selection and investment risk. Our study shows that governance variables generally have a limited role in driving value creation but that use of a ratchet is positively related to both equity and enterprise value returns; we also find that leverage has a positive impact on median and top-quartile equity returns. Moreover, returns are driven by the size of the buyout and the acquisitions made during the holding period. With respect to macroeconomic and industry level factors, industry growth particularly drives buyout returns. However, the effect of industry growth is not uniform; its influence is particularly strong in insider-driven and divisional buyouts, in addition to top-quartile transactions.     

Social Networks among Russian Information and Communication Technology Professionals

This article analyses the extent to which the economic actions of Russian information and communication technology (ICT) professionals are embedded in and influenced by their personal networks. The study is based on empirical data collected in 2004 in St Petersburg, one of the strongholds of Russian ICT. By focusing on the personal networks among the St Petersburg professionals the article seeks to illuminate the role and function of social ties in economic decisions. What are their significant social relations like? What kinds of resources get distributed through these ties? Answering these questions helps both to refine the notion of the ‘social embeddedness’ of economic action and to shed light on the nature of the new Russian economy.