Co-evolutionary policy processes: Understanding innovative economies and future resilience

The great debates of most fields associated with economic development rest on emergence versus intention and the interplay between the two. The ‘residual’ of unexplained divergence between goal and outcome, in this sense, can be ascribed in part to the interplay, or co-evolution, between policies (intention) and self-organizing (emergent) development. Do public policy and economic development co-evolve in technologically innovative economies, and if so, how? This paper discusses the basic premise that the gap between economic development strategies and their poor implementation cannot simply be removed by creating better-intended strategies, tools or institutions. The analysis uses evolutionary thinking for an analysis of economic development, and ends with some postulates for future study on innovative regions and the concept of resilience.     

Becoming an acquirer and becoming acquired

This paper considers mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in Finland. We explain the likelihood that a firm acquires or is acquired by another firm. We try to find out whether the incidences of M&A are influenced by the firms' R&D activity, measured by the calculated R&D stock. We obtained a very robust result, which says that R&D stock increases the probability that a firm acquires in all industries. In the nonprocessing industries, R&D stock similarly increases the probability that a firm is acquired by another. In the processing industries, the firm's own R&D stock has, however, zero impact on the likelihood that another firm buys a firm concerned. We interpret these results indicating that M&A are used as instruments to transmit knowledge from one firm to another. In the nonprocessing industries, it is evident that knowledge capital cumulated in the target is the main motivation for the purchase. Then a buyer's own R&D—which also increases the probability of the trade—signals that a buyer is efficient in absorbing the purchased new technology. In the processing industries, the motive for acquisition is different. We discovered that in the processing industries, technology is rather transmitted from the buyer's firm than to the purchased firm. It looks like that, in these industries, the firms have decreased their unit costs by means of their R&D activity, and so through M&A, the appeared unit cost differences have been levelled.     

Attracting cross-border venture capital: the role of a local investor

Examining an increasingly prevalent but under-researched phenomenon, cross-border venture capital investments, it is observed that local venture capitalists typically invest first, followed by foreign venture capitalists in later rounds. A model is developed that explains the role of a domestic venture capital investor in attracting foreign investors and which also accounts for the impact of various circumstances on the importance of this role. In our model based on analysis of nine cross-border venture capital-backed companies, local venture capitalists have several important roles in increasing the venture's cross-border investment readiness including advice to operational management and contributing contacts and local market knowledge. The importance of these roles is mitigated if the entrepreneurial team is highly experienced or if the home market is not important for the venture. The prominence of the local investor has signalling value. Finally, the local investor's international social capital facilitates the formation of cross-border syndicates. Overall, the model developed in the paper contributes to a better understanding of cross-border venture capital and in particular to the division of labour between domestic and foreign venture capitalists in international venture capital syndicates. The paper also contributes to the emerging literature on international social capital.     

Greening from the front to the back door? A typology of chemical and resource management services

Though services and product–service systems have been promoted as a promising way towards more eco‐efficient and sustainable societies, they have not turned into reality as expected. Chemical and resource management services are among the few operational examples. They aim to align the service provider's and customer's actions to reduce chemical usage and waste, improve supply chain management and increase resource efficiency. Arguably, they also create new business and higher profit margins compared with merely selling chemicals or handling industrial waste. Thus far they have been viewed as a single business model. In contrast, this study shows through the construction of five ideal types that the actual services and their focus vary. They range from the management of the chemical supply to operations, waste reduction, combined logistics services, process management, IT and other technologies. Consequently this affects the value creation, organization and environmental efficiencies of these services. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Overnight stock returns and realized volatility

The information flow in modern financial markets is continuous, but major stock exchanges are open for trading for only a limited number of hours. No consensus has yet emerged on how to deal with overnight returns when calculating and forecasting realized volatility in markets where trading does not take place 24 hours a day. Based on a recently introduced formal testing procedure, we find that for the S&P 500 index, a realized volatility estimator that optimally incorporates overnight information is more accurate in-sample. In contrast, estimators that do not incorporate overnight information are more accurate for individual stocks. We also show that accounting for overnight returns may affect the conclusions drawn in an out-of-sample horserace of forecasting models. Finally, there is considerably less variation in the selection of the best out-of-sample forecasting model when only the most accurate in-sample RV estimators are considered.     

Sustainable Forestry: Timber Bequests, Future Generations and Optimal Tax Policy

This paper analyzes harvesting and timber bequest behavior in a two-period overlapping generations model where the government uses site productivity, yield and inheritance taxation. The ceteris paribus effects of forest and inheritance taxes are derived first, then the paper discusses the optimal design of forest and inheritance taxes by assuming that intergenerational externalities are either absent or operative. In the absence of intergenerational externalities, it is optimal to use only the site productivity tax, and not to introduce yield and inheritance taxes at all. In the presence of intergenerational externalities the situation changes. The paper demonstrates that the externality can be internalized by introducing either a yield tax or an inheritance subsidy, or both. If the government is able to use both at the same time, it is desirable to use the yield tax to 'punish' excessive harvesting and an inheritance subsidy to 'bribe' to give bequests.     

Agri-Environmental Program Compliance in a Heterogeneous Landscape

Heterogeneity of agricultural landscapes may necessitate the use of spatially targeted instruments. But costly enforcement may be needed to ensure compliance with these policies. This paper examines the design of agri-environmental policies designed to achieve reductions in fertilizer application rates and installation of riparian buffers through the use of incentive-based instruments. We derive monitoring strategies capable of ensuring perfect compliance from risk neutral farmers given realistic limits on penalties for non-compliance. We then apply that framework empirically using a parametric model reflecting Finnish agricultural and environmental conditions. The results of our simulations indicate that subsidies for installing and maintaining buffer strips, used alone, are the most cost effective means of reducing nitrogen runoff from crop production. This policy is also the most attractive politically, in that it reduces farm income less than the alternatives considered.     

Do networks of financial intermediaries help reduce local bias? Evidence from cross-border venture capital exits

Contributing to the literature on local bias and financial networks, we examine how direct and indirect network ties of financial intermediaries mitigate the effects of distance and preference for local investments. In our analysis of cross-border venture capital exits, we find that proximity within networks facilitates cross-border transactions, which suggests that network distance is an important dimension of distance in addition to its geographical and cultural dimensions. The results also suggest that network distance affects the reach and quality of mediated information: indirect ties to partners' partners, with their broad reach, facilitate the identification of investment opportunities, whereas direct ties, which have certification effects, facilitate quality assessment.     

Near unit roots,cointegration, and the term structure of interest rates

The term structure of interest rates is often modelled as a cointegrated system with the yield spreads forming the cointegrating vectors. Testing whether the yield spreads span the cointegration space is problematic because conventional tests on the cointegration vectors tend to overreject when the largest autoregressive roots deviate from unity, as is likely to be the case with interest rates. A new test that is robust w.r.t. deviations from the exact unit root assumption is developed and applied to monthly US interest rate data from 1952:1–1991:2. Taking into account the regime shift in 1979, the hypothesis of the yield spreads being the cointegrating vectors cannot be rejected using the robust test. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Data‐Driven Identification Constraints for DSGE Models

We propose imposing data‐driven identification constraints to alleviate the multimodality problem arising in the estimation of poorly identified dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models under non‐informative prior distributions. We also devise an iterative procedure based on the posterior density of the parameters for finding these constraints. An empirical application to the Smets and Wouters ( 2007 ) model demonstrates the properties of the estimation method, and shows how the problem of multimodal posterior distributions caused by parameter redundancy is eliminated by identification constraints. Out‐of‐sample forecast comparisons as well as Bayes factors lend support to the constrained model.