Exploration,exploitation, and financial performance: analysis of S&P 500 corporations

The literature suggests that established firms need to balance their exploration and exploitation activities in order to achieve superior performance. Yet, previous empirical research has modeled this balance as the interaction of orthogonal activities. In this study, we show that there is a trade‐off between exploration and exploitation and that the optimal balance between exploration and exploitation depends upon environmental conditions. Using a novel methodology to measure the relative exploration versus exploitation orientation, we find an inverted U‐shaped relationship between the relative share of explorative orientation and financial performance. This relationship is positively moderated by the R&D intensity of the industry in which the firm operates. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Peer performance and stock market entry

Peer performance can influence the adoption of financial innovations and investment styles. We present evidence of this type of social influence: recent stock returns that local peers experience affect an individual's stock market entry decision, particularly in areas with better opportunities for social learning. The likelihood of entry does not decrease as returns fall below zero, consistent with people not talking about decisions that have produced inferior outcomes. Market returns, media coverage, local stocks, omitted local variables, short sales constraints, and stock purchases within households do not seem to explain these results.     

Climate in the making: Using Delphi for Finnish climate policy

In the assessment of the present state of climate change and the projection of its future development and impacts on human society, one of the core issues is the interaction between decision makers and the scientific community. Knowledge of the human and natural processes behind climatic change and of the risks involved should be communicated to policy makers in a form that is both comprehensible and useful in the formulation of policy measures. At the same time, the scientific community must meet the practical requirements and goals for research set by decision makers, even if this creates problems involving the validity of overly hasty answers to questions of paramount complexity. The purpose of this paper is to present some results of the study dealing with these questions and in particular to discuss the future scenarios produced in the course of that project.     

Path dependence in net migration during the ICT boom and two other growth periods: the case of Finland, 1980-2013

This paper examines the path dependence of net migration surpluses and deficits by Finnish municipalities in the period of 33 years. Such spatial clustering revealed by spatial autocorrelation represents the spatial formations in which the development indicated by migration is statistically similar over the municipal borders. The results of survival analysis indicate that the chronic centripetal tendency of development generates higher path probabilities of a municipality staying in a surplus formation located in the main urban regions and an increased lock-in tendency compared with deficit formations in peripheries. Thus, the growth processes seem to translate into the self-reinforcing spatial formations of growth and decline in population, production and regional competitiveness suspended by economic downturns and recessions, and so this path dependence is cyclic and recurring, which means that paths constitute relatively short pulses. In the great surge of Information and Communication Technology industries in the 1990s, the spatial formations of migration were higher in volume and path-dependent, but against expectations, spatially less stable compared with more modest growth periods.     

Data‐Driven Identification Constraints for DSGE Models

We propose imposing data‐driven identification constraints to alleviate the multimodality problem arising in the estimation of poorly identified dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models under non‐informative prior distributions. We also devise an iterative procedure based on the posterior density of the parameters for finding these constraints. An empirical application to the Smets and Wouters ( 2007 ) model demonstrates the properties of the estimation method, and shows how the problem of multimodal posterior distributions caused by parameter redundancy is eliminated by identification constraints. Out‐of‐sample forecast comparisons as well as Bayes factors lend support to the constrained model.     

Near unit roots,cointegration, and the term structure of interest rates

The term structure of interest rates is often modelled as a cointegrated system with the yield spreads forming the cointegrating vectors. Testing whether the yield spreads span the cointegration space is problematic because conventional tests on the cointegration vectors tend to overreject when the largest autoregressive roots deviate from unity, as is likely to be the case with interest rates. A new test that is robust w.r.t. deviations from the exact unit root assumption is developed and applied to monthly US interest rate data from 1952:1–1991:2. Taking into account the regime shift in 1979, the hypothesis of the yield spreads being the cointegrating vectors cannot be rejected using the robust test. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Do networks of financial intermediaries help reduce local bias? Evidence from cross-border venture capital exits

Contributing to the literature on local bias and financial networks, we examine how direct and indirect network ties of financial intermediaries mitigate the effects of distance and preference for local investments. In our analysis of cross-border venture capital exits, we find that proximity within networks facilitates cross-border transactions, which suggests that network distance is an important dimension of distance in addition to its geographical and cultural dimensions. The results also suggest that network distance affects the reach and quality of mediated information: indirect ties to partners' partners, with their broad reach, facilitate the identification of investment opportunities, whereas direct ties, which have certification effects, facilitate quality assessment.     

Bequest Intentions of Forest Landowners: Theory and Empirical Evidence

This article studies in an overlapping generations forest economy the conditions under which money and/or timber bequests occur across generations, assuming the usual case of one–sided altruism. We assume nonindustrial landowners have preferences for consumption and for amenities from unharvested forest stock. Within this framework, we examine conditions under which landowners choose to leave timber or money bequests, and we show how taxation is important to these conditions. Empirical evidence from bequests decisions for a cross–section sample of nonindustrial landowners in Virginia is then used to investigate the hypotheses suggested by the model with regard to the motive to leave bequests. The results are broadly consistent with the theoretical findings.     

A Mixture Multiplicative Error Model for Realized Volatility

A multiplicative error model with time-varying parameters andan error term following a mixture of gamma distributions isintroduced. The model is fitted to the daily realized volatilityseries of deutschemark/dollar and yen/dollar returns and isshown to capture the conditional distribution of these variablesbetter than the commonly used autoregressive fractionally integratedmoving average model. The forecasting performance of the newmodel is found to be, in general, superior to that of the setof volatility models recently considered by Andersen et al.(2003, Econometrica 71, 579–625) for the same data.     

Test Procedures for Unit Roots in Time Series with Level Shifts at Unknown Time*

Two types of unit root tests which accommodate a structural level shift at a known point in time are extended to the situation where the break date is unknown. It is shown that for any estimator for the break date the tests have the same asymptotic distribution as the corresponding tests under the known break date assumption. Different estimators of the break date are compared in a Monte Carlo experiment and a recommendation for choosing the break date in small samples is given. Example series from the Nelson–Plosser data set are used to illustrate the performance of our tests.