A multivariate nonparametric test for return and volatility timing

This paper develops a novel approach to simultaneously test for market timing in stock index returns and volatility. The tests are based on the estimation of a system of regression equations with indicator variables and provide detailed information about the statistical significance of alternative market timing components.     

Sentimental Preferences and the Organizational Regime of Betting Markets

We analyze the price impact of sentimental bettor preferences within a bookmaker betting market. A theoretical model demonstrates that, under reasonable assumptions about the nature of demand in a market with strong competition, the bookmaker will offer lower prices for bets with comparatively stronger demand. Using a sample of more than 16,000 English soccer matches we find evidence that more favorable odds are extended to bets on more popular clubs and that this effect is amplified on weekends when sentimental bettors face lower opportunity costs to wager. Our findings help to explain why the market for sports gambling operates as a hybrid structure with bookmakers able to attract a considerable share of the betting volume, although identical contracts are traded on exchange markets at lower costs: the organizational design of a quote‐driven market enables the dealer to take advantage of sentimental bettor preferences.     

Front-running of mutual fund fire-sales

We show that a real-time trading strategy which front-runs the anticipated forced sales by mutual funds experiencing extreme capital outflows generates an alpha of 0.5% per month during the 1990–2010 period. The abnormal return stems from selling pressure among stocks that are below the NYSE mean size and cannot be attributed to the arrival of public information. While the largest stocks also exhibit downward price pressure, their prices revert before the front-running strategy can detect it. The duration of the anticipated selling pressure has decreased from about a month in the 1990s to about two weeks in the most recent decade. Our results suggest that publicly available information of fund flows and holdings exposes mutual funds in distress to predatory trading.     

Nonresponse in panel data: The impact on estimates of a life cycle consumption function

If missing observations in a panel data set are not missing at random, many widely applied estimators may be inconsistent. In this paper we examine empirically several ways to reveal the nature and severity of the selectivity problem due to nonresponse, as well as a number of methods to estimate the resulting models. Using a life cycle consumption function and data from the Expenditure Index Panel from the Netherlands, we discuss simple procedures that can be used to assess whether observations are missing at random, and we consider more complicated estimation procedures that can be used to obtain consistent or efficient estimates in case of selectivity of attrition bias. Finally, some attention is paid to the differences in identification, consistency, and efficiency between inferences from a single wave of the panel, a balanced sub-panel, and an unbalanced panel.     

Growth,budget deficits,and fiscal policies in an overlapping generations model

Analyzing an overlapping generations model with growing endowments and a government sector that is permitted to have a budget deficit forces the real interest factor to deviate from Samuelson's biological interest factor. Fiscal policies then affect the real interest factor, which in turn has consequences both for the direction and the effectiveness of those fiscal policies. These consequences depend upon the borrowing position of the young.We would like to thank Jo Ritzen, Marcel Peeters, Casper de Vries, Georg Tillmann, Richard Gigengack, an anonymous referee, and the participants of workshops at Erasmus University and the University of Groningen for helpful comments on an earlier version of the paper. We owe a special debt to Claus Weddepohl for stimulating our interest in this subject. The paper was presented at the 5th annual meeting of the European Economic Association, Lisbon 1990.     

The Impact of Financing Surpluses and Large Financing Deficits on Tests of the Pecking Order Theory

This paper extends the basic pecking order model of Shyam-Sunder and Myers by separating the effects of financing surpluses, normal deficits, and large deficits. Using a panel of US firms over the period 1971-2005, we find that the estimated pecking order coefficient is highest for surpluses (0.90), lower for normal deficits (0.74), and lowest when firms have large financing deficits (0.09). These findings shed light on two empirical puzzles: 1) small firms, although having the highest potential for asymmetric information, do not behave according to the pecking order theory, and 2) the pecking order theory has lost explanatory power over time. We provide a solution to these puzzles by demonstrating that the frequency of large deficits is higher in smaller firms and increasing over time. We argue that our results are consistent with the debt capacity in the pecking order model.     

DOES FINANCIAL FLEXIBILITY REDUCE INVESTMENT DISTORTIONS?

The average U.S. firm has less leverage than one would expect based on the trade‐off between tax shields and bankruptcy costs. We focus on firms’ financial flexibility and examine whether firms preserve debt capacity to reduce investment distortions in the future. We find that firms with high unused debt capacity invest more in future years than do firms with low unused debt capacity. Furthermore, firms that are reluctant to borrow in unconstrained periods are more likely to issue debt in periods in which access to capital markets is more constrained.