Time series momentum and moving average trading rules

We compare and contrast time series momentum (TSMOM) and moving average (MA) trading rules so as to better understand the sources of their profitability. These rules are closely related; however, there are important differences. TSMOM signals occur at points that coincide with a MA direction change, whereas MA buy (sell) signals only require price to move above (below) a MA. Our empirical results show MA rules frequently give earlier signals leading to meaningful return gains. Both rules perform best outside of large stock series which may explain the puzzle of their popularity with investors, yet lack of supportive evidence in academic studies.     

Tourism development and behavioural changes: evidences from Ratanakiri province,Kingdom of Cambodia

This research paper presents the findings of a research undertaken in Ratanakiri province, Kingdom of Cambodia (Under the RETA 6190 ADB TA project on ‘Preventing the Trafficking of Women and Children and Promoting Safe Migration in the GMS’), with the aim to evaluate the impact of an airport rehabilitation project. It highlights the role that infrastructure development, with a focus on tourism-related projects, can play in a remote rural area and its consequences on local population, especially ethnic minorities. For remote areas, tourism is considered as an accelerating influence on globalisation and in-migration, which, in turn, are seen as the main factors affecting remote local communities to modify behaviours changing from valuing utility to valuing exchange. The rapidity of these cultural changes increase rural depopulation and the vulnerability of human beings to a range of negative situational factors, including loss of land, erosion of community structures and coping mechanisms, and as well as exploitative practices such as debt bondage, prostitution and human trafficking.     

Foreign banks in Japan: A study of a Japanese deregulation process

The deregulation of foreign banks in Japan, although corresponding in broad outline to world-wide trends, has diverged substantially in many particulars from patterns seen elsewhere. It has tended to be excruciatingly slow and piecemeal and to have been of minimal benefit to foreign banks. A review of this process leads to the conclusion that these characteristics result from organisational and political-bureaucratic factors inherent to the Japanese style of government which is, in turn, partially a reflection of Japanese culture. Although these non-economic factors have influenced the specific pattern of change, its overall direction appears to have been consistent with the broader national interest.The authors wish to acknowledge financial support from the Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada, the Florsheimer Center for Policy Studies, and the Krueger Center for Financial Research.     

Variable reduction,sample selection bias and bank retail credit scoring

This paper investigates the effect of including the customer loan approval process to the estimation of loan performance and explores the influence of sample selection bias in predicting the probability of default. The bootstrap variable reduction technique is applied to reduce the variable dimension for a large data-set drawn from a major UK retail bank. The results show a statistically significant correlation between the loan approval and performance processes. We further demonstrate an economically significant improvement in forecasting performance when taking into account sample selection bias. We conclude that financial institutions can obtain benefits by correcting for sample selection bias in their credit scoring models.     

Advances in Joint Modelling: A Review of Recent Developments with Application to the Survival of End Stage Renal Disease Patients

The use of joint modelling approaches is becoming increasingly popular when an association exists between survival and longitudinal processes. Widely recognized for their gain in efficiency, joint models also offer a reduction in bias compared with naïve methods. With the increasing popularity comes a constantly expanding literature on joint modelling approaches. The aim of this paper is to give an overview of recent literature relating to joint models, in particular those that focus on the time‐to‐event survival process. A discussion is provided on the range of survival submodels that have been implemented in a joint modelling framework. A particular focus is given to the recent advancements in software used to build these models. Illustrated through the use of two different real‐life data examples that focus on the survival of end‐stage renal disease patients, the use of the JM and joineR packages within R are demonstrated. The possible future direction for this field of research is also discussed.     

Management training in small and medium-sized enterprises: methodological and conceptual issues

The paper examines the impact of management training and development on the organisation and performance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), via a variety of quantitative and qualitative research techniques and including both crosssectional and longitudinal approaches to analysis. The paper demonstrates the value of management training and development in SMEs and demonstrates a series of one-off and longer lasting effects on their organization and performance. The paper also highlights the conditions under which management development projects are likely to be more successful. Finally, the paper extends the schema developed by Arthur and Hendry (1990) and Hendry et al. (1991), indicating the factors influencing training within businesses, and shows the indirect and complex links between management training and firm performance.     

Wage Determination Regimes and Pay Inequality: A comparative study of Latin American countries

The relationship between the degree of centralization of wage setting and labour market outcomes, generally discussed with reference to advanced OECD countries, is explored in this paper through the comparative analysis of eight Latin American countries, focusing on the effects of centralization on wage inequality. It is argued that the greater the decentralization of wage setting, the larger will be wage dispersion. The article starts with the presentation of the analytical model, and continues with the empirical study. This is divided into two parts. In the first, a number of institutional factors that contribute to define 'wage determination regimes' (collective bargaining structures; state intervention in wage setting; and union rights that determine union strength) are discussed, stressing the specific traits of centralization within Latin America, and the selected countries are scored in terms of those factors. In the second, the magnitude of wage dispersion across manufacturing industries is examined, and the resulting ranking of countries is contrasted with their ranking in terms of the institutional factors. It is concluded that, with some caveats, the degrees of centralization of bargaining structures and of wage inequality appear to be inversely associated, reproducing in the Latin American region the pattern found in OECD countries.     

Scottish Economic Thought and the High Wage Economy: Hume, Smith and MCCulloch on Wages and Work Motivation

This article examines the work of Hume, Smith and McCulloch on wages and work motivation, and finds a clear and detailed case made for high wages within Scottish political economy. This analysis, through Hume and Smith, is based on key aspects of Scottish Enlightenment thought, and represents the culmination of the liberalization of thought regarding labour which developed in the eighteenth century. McCulloch, whose work on wages, incentives and motivation is more detailed and interesting than that of his 'post-Smithian' classical colleagues, is shown to be, in this area at least, clearly in the Scottish tradition.