Reproducibility investigation of elicitation techniques in risk assessment for hydraulic turbines

Abstract

Certain elicitation techniques exert some control on expert opinions by leading them to a consensus or to a specific choice. In the absence of such guidelines, experts rely on their own knowledge to formulate opinions. This can result in large dispersions and affects the decision maker’s judgment. In this situation, we wonder what the relevant elicitation techniques are and how we can help experts to express their knowledge. From literature review, it is hard to decide if elicitation techniques are equivalent or not, which justifies the reproducibility analysis that we carry out in this paper. In this study, multiple experts have been involved in order to predict the defect size in hydraulic turbines, according to four proposed elicitation techniques. The comparison between these techniques was performed based on a suggested algorithm using the area metric concept. Our Findings show that elicitation techniques with ‘support’ tend to limit variations between experts and might be suitable only when prior knowledge on the expected elicited variable is available. Otherwise, we can end up with a distorted opinion of the elicited variable and an erroneous risk assessment.     

Reconciling Gray and Hotelling

A bstract .   Early exhaustible resource economics provides an important foundation for recent suggestions that firm-level economic modeling plays a larger role in the analysis of resource scarcity. The lack of empirical support for Hotelling's r -percent rule, introduced in 1931, and recent suggestions that industry behavior may not be reducible to firm behaviors are the primary motivating factors for examining the relative value of Gray's contribution to the field of exhaustible resource economics relative to Hotelling's contribution. Specifically, Gray's papers that appeared in the 1910s provide insight into the heterogeneity of deposits and their spatial dimensions, and offer the possibility that firms will be subject to fixed costs carried over between periods. In this paper, the arguments presented by Gray are formalized in a dynamic model, which allows the differences between Gray's and Hotelling's assumptions to be more fully explored. The results of the paper illustrate that by considering spatially identifiable heterogeneous deposits, fixed costs, and entry costs, in general Hotelling's r -percent rule is not a sufficient condition for firm-level decision making and that firms' extraction behavior cannot be linearly aggregated to describe industry behavior.     

Differential and More Favorable Treatment of Developing Countries and the International Trading System

This article argues that "differential and more favourable treatment"of developing countries in the General Agreement on Tariffsand Trade (GATT) has been a logical consequence of their owninward-looking policies and the GATT's implicit mercantilism,the latter implying that liberalization, being costly, shouldnot be demanded of relatively poor countries. Time has, however,reduced both the appeal of the protectionist model of developmentand the willingness of developed countries to accord differentialtreatment. The upshot has been pressure on more advanced developingcountries to "graduate" and a growing literature recommendingfuller and more equal participation of developing countriesin the GATT. The case for fuller and more equal participationis not self-evident. It needs to be assessed on its merits interms of the prospects for improved market access abroad andmore efficient policy at home. The analysis indicates that thepotential benefits should not be oversold. On balance, however,the most advanced developing countries would probably gain fromactive and more equal participation in both GATT and the multilateraltrade negotiations while the remaining developing countrieswould benefit from graduation by the more advanced.     

Social Protection in a Crisis: Argentina's Plan Jefes y Jefas

The article assesses the impact of Argentina’s main socialpolicy response to the severe economic crisis of 2002. The programwas intended to provide direct income support for families withdependents and whose head had become unemployed because of thecrisis. Counterfactual comparisons are based on a matched subsetof applicants not yet receiving program assistance. Panel dataspanning the crisis are also used. The program reduced aggregateunemployment, though it attracted as many people into the workforcefrom inactivity as it did people who otherwise would have beenunemployed. Although there was substantial leakage to formallyineligible families and incomplete coverage of those who wereeligible, the program did partially compensate many losers fromthe crisis and reduced extreme poverty.