NO‐ARBITRAGE IN A NUMÉRAIRE‐INDEPENDENT MODELING FRAMEWORK

The classic approach to modeling financial markets consists of four steps. First, one fixes a currency unit. Second, one describes in that unit the evolution of financial assets by a stochastic process. Third, one chooses in that unit a numéraire, usually the price process of a positive asset. Fourth, one divides the original price process by the numéraire and considers the class of admissible strategies for trading. This approach has one fundamental drawback: Almost all concepts, definitions, and results, including no‐arbitrage conditions like NA, NFLVR, and NUPBR depend by their very definition, at least formally, on initial choices of a currency unit and a numéraire. In this paper, we develop a new framework for modeling financial markets, which is not based on ex‐ante choices of a currency unit and a numéraire. In particular, we introduce a “numéraire‐independent” notion of no‐arbitrage and derive its dual characterization. This yields a numéraire‐independent version of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing (FTAP). We also explain how the classic approach and other recent approaches to modeling financial markets and studying no‐arbitrage can be embedded in our framework.     

Trading strategies based on past returns: evidence from Germany

Among the various strategies studied in this paper, only momentum investing appears to earn persistently nonzero returns: From 1965 to 2014, the classical momentum strategy based on performance over the previous 2–12 months earned an average return of 1.57% per month (excluding microcap stocks and value-weighted returns). In the most recent 10-year period, this return was even larger—2.27%—which is much larger than in the USA. However, profitability net of transaction costs is weak because the strategy involves trading in disproportionately small stocks with high transaction costs, something that is particularly true for the loser portfolio. A strategy that concentrates only on the winner portfolio and thus avoids potential problems associated with (short) selling the costly loser portfolio appears to earn strong and persistently abnormal profits, even after transaction costs.     

Compensation in the Post‐FIN 48 Period: The Case of Contracting on Tax Performance and Uncertainty

Academic and anecdotal evidence indicates that incentive systems often provide short‐term payouts without regard for long‐term consequences. New detailed disclosures mandated by FIN No. 48, Accounting for Uncertainty in Income Taxes, enable us to use a tax setting to investigate whether boards adjust performance‐based pay for uncertainty. We find managers’ bonus payouts are positively associated with tax performance; however, bonus payouts are lower when measures of ex ante tax uncertainty are higher. Our results are robust to tests of alternative explanations including financial reporting aggressiveness, overall firm risk, and other forms of compensation. Further, we document that the relation between bonus compensation and tax performance has changed in the post‐FIN No. 48 period. Specifically, we identify a significant association between bonus payout and GAAP ETR only in the pre‐FIN No. 48 period and a significant association between bonus payout and cash ETR only in the post‐FIN No. 48 period, suggesting that the relation between compensation and tax avoidance should be examined carefully with particular attention to the post‐FIN No. 48 period.     

A Cautionary Tale About Control Variables in IV Estimation

Many instrumental variable (IV) regressions include control variables to justify (conditional) independence of the instrument and the potential outcomes. The plausibility of conditional IV independence crucially depends on the timing when the control variables are determined. This paper works through different IV models and discusses the (conditions for the) satisfaction of conditional IV independence depending on whether the control variables are measured prior to or after instrument assignment. To illustrate the identification issues, we consider the Vietnam War draft risk as instrument either for veteran status or education to evaluate the effects of these variables on labour market and health outcomes. Our empirical analysis based on the ‘Young Men in High School and Beyond’ survey suggests that commonly used conditional IV strategies to estimate the impact of draft induced military service or education may be severely biased due to the use of improper controls.     

Cost (In)Efficiency and Institutional Pressures in Nursing Home Chains

Over the past 10 years, merger activities in the private for-profit nursing home industry have been increasing in Europe. In this paper, we investigate chain affiliation’s influence on the performance of lucrative nursing homes. We measure performance using a cost frontier estimated by stochastic analysis on a sample of 370 French for-profit nursing homes. We find that cost efficiency decreases with the number of facilities in a chain. We also identify different external actor types in nursing homes’ institutional environment and test their influence. We show that nursing home chains’ cost efficiency improves when local governments and shareholders exert pressure. Our results are robust to alternative model specifications and another definition of costs. Overall, our findings inform researchers, as well as standards setters, of the relevance of chain affiliation and of the role of institutional pressures regarding cost containment at the nursing home level.     

Aggregative games and best-reply potentials

This paper introduces quasi-aggregative games and establishes conditions under which such games admit a best-reply potential. This implies existence of a pure strategy Nash equilibrium without any convexity or quasi-concavity assumptions. It also implies convergence of best-reply dynamics under some additional assumptions. Most of the existing literature’s aggregation concepts are special cases of quasi-aggregative games, and many new situations are allowed for. An example is payoff functions that depend on own strategies as well as a linear combination of the mean and the variance of players’ strategies.     

From inflation to exchange rate targeting: Estimating the stabilization effects for a small open economy

This paper attempts to estimate possible losses in macroeconomic stabilization due to a move from inflation to exchange rate targeting on the example of the Czech Republic. The authors use an estimated New Keynesian policy model, typical inflation and exchange rate targeting rules, and representative central bank loss functions to carry out these estimations. The authors find that for the Czech Republic, moving from the historically applied inflation targeting to optimized exchange rate targeting should not involve any significant losses in macroeconomic stabilization. However, the Czech National Bank could improve its stabilization outcomes while remaining an inflation targeter. This requires the Czech National Bank to respond more strongly to increasing expected future inflation and to be less concerned about an opening output gap when adjusting its policy rate. Moving then from such optimized inflation targeting to optimized exchange rate targeting can result in significant losses in economic stabilization in the magnitude of 0.4–2% points of GDP growth.     

Fragmentation of work activity as a multi-dimensional construct and its association with ICT,employment and sociodemographic characteristics

A potential effect of ICTs is that they alleviate the traditional space-time constraints of paidwork activities and allow for the decomposition of work into multiple segments of subtasks, which can be performed at different times and/or locations. Such separation of activities into discrete pieces is commonly termed the fragmentation of activity. Regrettably, only limited empirical evidence is available on the fragmentation of work activity and the factors that contribute to it. The goal of this paper is to extend the previous work in the activity fragmentation arena in three ways: (i) to operationalize measures of spatial fragmentation and reformulate some of the temporal fragmentation measures for the specific purpose of investigating the fragmentation of the work activity; (ii) to analyse fragmentation not only in terms of the individual indicators, but also as a multi-dimensional construct including all dimensions of spatial and temporal fragmentation collectively; (iii) to test a detailed set of ICT-related, workrelated, and sociodemographic variables to identify the factors that are crucial in the occurrence of the fragmentation of the work activity. The study shows that there is heterogeneity in the fragmentation of work. Three internally homogenous patterns of fragmentation, which diverge in the degree of fragmentation, are identified: (1) a less temporally and spatially fragmented work pattern; (2) a less spatially and more temporally fragmented work pattern; (3) a more spatially and temporally fragmented work pattern. The multiple discriminant analysis suggests that ICT variables and work-related variables as well as personal-household attributes are associated with the fragmentation of work. However, the degree of association differs considerably among representative patterns of fragmentation.     

An agglomeration payment for cost-effective biodiversity conservation in spatially structured landscapes

Connected habitats are ecologically more valuable than isolated habitats for many species. A key challenge when designing payments for biodiversity in fragmented landscapes is to increase the spatial connectivity of habitats. Based on the idea of an agglomeration bonus we consider a scheme in which land-owners only receive payments if habitats are arranged in an ecologically favourable configuration. We compare the cost-effectiveness of agglomeration payments to spatially homogeneous payments on a conceptual level. Our results suggest that positive efficiency gains exist for agglomeration payments. We use Large Blue butterfly habitat in Germany as a specific case study, and find the agglomeration payments may lead to cost-savings of nearly 70% relative to homogenous payments.