Influence of ADB Bond Issues and US Bonds on Asian Government Bonds*

This article examines whether there is a correlation between the government bond markets of Asian countries and those of the USA, and whether the efforts of international organizations to improve bond markets have had any effect in East Asia. Because the sizes of the government bond markets are larger than those of the corporate bond markets in East Asia, the present paper uses the daily data of government bonds to examine two questions: whether government bond yields in Hong Kong, Singapore and Thailand correlate with US government bond yields, and whether bonds in these Asian countries are influenced by ADB bond issues. The present study analyzes these issues by demonstrating the fluctuations in bond yields and carrying out an estimation using the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model. The results substantiate that there is indeed a correlation between Asian and US bond markets, and that ADB bond issuance in local markets can contribute to the development of Asian bond markets.     

Influence of real estate prices on domestic bank loans in Southeast Asia

This study examines whether and how fluctuations in real estate prices affected bank lending in Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand before and after the 1997–98 Asian financial crisis. Since the crisis, it has been claimed that the rise and fall in the price of real estate, which is used as collateral, affected bank lending and the macroeconomy in these Southeast Asian countries. The study implements a dynamic model of bank lending and employs a test using the panel data of domestic bank balance sheets in order to estimate the influence of real estate prices on new bank lending in the three countries. The study also examines the conditions surrounding the role of real estate as collateral for bank loans in the countries. The regression results suggest that fluctuations in real estate prices can influence domestic bank lending and did so, especially after the crisis in Singapore and Thailand, and that domestic bank lending behaviour in these countries changed after the crisis.     

Voluntarily separable repeated Prisonerʼs Dilemma with reference letters

We consider the voluntarily separable repeated Prisoner?s Dilemma model in which players randomly meet and form pairs to repeatedly play Prisoner?s Dilemma only by mutual agreement. While the literature has dealt with the case of no information flow across partnerships, we consider the case in which players can issue a “reference letter” to verify at least that the partnership entered the cooperation phase. We show that such reference letters can be voluntarily provided by the partners even at some cost, and that the sheer existence of a letter shortens the trust-building periods and thus improves social efficiency.     

日本经济高速增长的政策软实力

战后长期的高速增长奠定了日本强大的经济硬实力地位难以动摇,而这种地位的获得主要源自于日本的经济政策。产业政策是日本战后促进经济恢复最重要的政策,也是实现经济高速增长最成功的政策;兴建基础设施的政策扩大了日本国内市场,保证了经济高速增长的后劲和长期化;高速增长计划和目标,对于引导和指导日本经济发展发挥了重要的作用;高投资和高出口政策,加快了经济的发展速度;金融财政政策则成为高速增长的保障。这些政策产生力量效果,实现了经济高速增长,人民生活水平快速提高,提升了日本经济的国际竞争力,创造了经济高速增长模式。政策软实力发挥的原因包括,政府引导,政策相互配合,切合实际,长期坚持,目标单一等因素。     

Belief-Based Refinements in Signalling Games

There are many economic problems which, when modelled as games of incomplete information, give rise to many sequential equilibria, severely limiting the usefulness of the model. There has recently been a large literature devoted to "refining" the set of equilibria in order to reduce this multiplicity by restricting the set of admissible disequilibrium beliefs. This paper argues that the logical foundations of some refinements and the equilibria they focus on are problematic and, further, proposes an alternative refinement that avoids the difficulties. We also provide an existence theorem covering a broad class of signalling games often studied in economics. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, C70, D82.     

日本物流政策的演变——以《综合物流政策实施大纲》为中心

在经济一体化进程不断加快,日本经济发展滞后,生产基地向海外转移,物流业竞争力下降的情况下,日本的物流业面临着很大的挑战.本文围绕1997年、2001年、2005年和2009年的日本<综合物流政策实施大纲>,对日本十几年来的物流政策进行了梳理,分别阐述了各阶段大纲的背景、目标和措施,反映了日本物流政策的国际化趋势,并注重应用先进的信息技术,整合社会资本,关注环境保护,构建循环经济等方面的特征.     

The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Transition Economies: A Meta‐analysis

In this paper, we conduct a meta‐analysis of studies that empirically examine the relationship between economic transformation and foreign direct investment (FDI) performance in Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union over the past quarter century. More specifically, we synthesise the empirical evidence reported in previous studies that deal with the determinants of FDI in transition economies, focusing on the impacts of transition factors. We also perform meta‐regression analysis to specify determinant factors of the heterogeneity among the relevant studies and the presence of publication‐selection bias. We find that the existing literature reports a statistically significant non‐zero effect as a whole, and a genuine effect is confirmed for some FDI determinants beyond the publication‐selection bias.