Optimum choice of invoice currency with correlated exchange rates†

In this paper, we revisit optimal choice of invoice currency for an exporting firm in the face of exchange rate uncertainty. We demonstrate that when a vehicle currency is available, the optimum choice depends not only on the volatility of the exchange rates but the covariance between them as well. In particular, we show that when the exchange rates between the exporter and importer currencies on the one hand, and the exporter and the vehicle currency on the other, are positively correlated, vehicle currency becomes an attractive choice. The intuition underlying this novel outcome is that this regime dampens profit variability for the exporter.     

Earnings quality,bankruptcy risk and future cash flows

Prior research suggests that the quality of accruals may be compromised where the magnitude of accruals is abnormally high, due to the presence of errors in the accruals‐estimation process (Dechow and Dichev, 2002; Richardson, 2003). A consequence of this is that abnormal accruals may not map into realised future cash flows to the extent that would normally be expected of accruals data. Indeed, the association may be insignificant if abnormal accruals consist primarily of estimation noise. Our study investigates whether abnormal accruals for UK firms provide incremental insight into future cash flows. In particular, our paper may be viewed as a development of Subramanyam (1996). We find a significant positive association between abnormal accruals and one‐year‐ahead operating cash flows. This provides a rationale for the pricing of abnormal accruals by the market (Subramanyam, 1996; Xie, 2001) and suggests that abnormal accruals are not merely the products of noise in the accruals‐estimation process. However, our results are conditional upon the probability of one‐year‐ahead bankruptcy risk (Charitou et al., 2004). We also find that abnormal accruals possess small but significant explanatory power for future cash flows even when controlling for the disaggregation of accruals into individual items (Barth et al., 2001).     

Pricing of time-varying liquidity risk in Finnish stock market: new evidence

Using two recently developed illiquidity measures, we estimate a conditional version of liquidity-adjusted capital asset pricing model (LCAPM), which allows for a time-varying decomposition of the total illiquidity premium into a level component and three risk components. The total estimated annualized illiquidity premium for the Finnish equities during 1997–2015 is 1.13–1.90% depending on the illiquidity measure. Of the three systematic liquidity risk components, risk arising from hedging of wealth shocks is the most important followed by commonality in liquidity risk, whereas flight to liquidity risk is not significantly priced in the Finnish stock market. Our results show that the liquidity risk is time varying, therefore the models estimating the risk-return relationship should address the issue of conditionality.     

Determinants of industrial development: a panel analysis of South Asian economies

Quality & Quantity - A well performing industrial sector plays an important role in poverty mitigation, unemployment reduction, trade promotion, exchange of goods and services, increased per...     

The dynamic dependence between stock markets in the greater China economic area: a study based on extreme values and copulas

This study employs the dynamic copula method and extreme value theory to investigate the dependence structure between pairs of greater China economic area (GCEA) stock markets consisting of Shanghai (SHSE), Shenzhen (SZSE), Hong Kong (HKSE), and Taiwan (TWSE) stock exchanges from July 2000 to June 2017. We also examine the impact of financial crisis on the dependence structure by considering the global financial crisis and the Chinese stock market crash (2015–2016). Many studies have shown that the benefits of portfolio diversification across the stock markets in the same region could be diminishing. However, it is interesting to see that the diversification benefits appear to be viable for investing in some GCEA pairs of stock markets (SHSE–TWSE and SZSE–HKSE).     

Asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on India's cross‐border trade: Evidence from global financial crisis and multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model

This paper examines the asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on India's cross‐border trade with its major trading partners: Japan, Germany, the United States, and China. We extend previous studies in two ways. First, we examine whether global financial crisis changes the asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on India's cross‐border trade. Next, we divide exchange rate volatility into quintiles and examine the effect of each quintile on cross‐border trade by using the multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (MTNARDL) model. Our findings from standard nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) indicate that the asymmetric relationship between exchange rate volatility and cross‐border trade changes as a result of global financial crisis. In addition, findings from MTNARDL indicate that in short‐run, exchange rate volatility symmetrically affects India's cross‐border trade with all sample countries whereas in long‐run it asymmetrically affects cross‐border trade. Overall, these findings are very important for policy implications and open a new dimension to exchange rate volatility and trade flows.     

Rethinking the role of private capital in infrastructure PPPs: the experience of Ontario,Canada

Private capital has become a significant feature of infrastructure public–private partnerships (PPPs) on the premise that it incentivizes diligent risk management among private partners. This paper evaluates this claim by examining the PPP programme in Ontario, Canada, where the amount of long-term private capital in PPPs has been reduced. The paper shows that decreasing the amount of private capital after construction does not undermine performance, while producing cost savings for governments. This was achieved by deploying sophisticated procurement and monitoring strategies. These findings suggest that private capital is one of several tools available to achieve positive value for money in PPPs.     

Culture and business networks: International business negotiations with Arab managers

The Arab world is an important economic region due to its natural resources, geographic location and political influence. However, limited attention has been paid to researching and understanding the way business is conducted in this region. We address this gap by exploring the key socio-economic, cultural and political factors that influence the negotiation process between Arab and non-Arab managers. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 30 Arab managers in Lebanon with experience in international business. The findings of the study show that: Arab negotiators place emphasis on building relationships and use referent power (wasta); the political uncertainty influences the bargaining power of the Arab negotiators and political volatility in the country influences the Arab managers’ use of time during negotiations.