Relationship lending,hierarchical distance and credit tightening: Evidence from the financial crisis

This paper examines the firms’ credit availability during the 2007–2009 financial crisis using a dataset of 5331 bank–firm relationships provided by borrowers’ credit folders of three Italian banks. It aims to test whether a strong lender–borrower relationship can produce less credit rationing for borrowing firms even during a credit crunch period. The results show that exclusivity of the relationship can mitigate the firm credit rationing. We also verify the influence of lending organizational structure during crisis. A new measure of distance in lending technologies has been introduced: the hierarchical distance calculated as the distance between the branch that originates the loan and the location of the hierarchical level responsible for financing decision. Our findings document a negative impact of distance on credit availability, consistent with the idea that proximity facilitates the transmission of soft information.     

Housing and debt over the life cycle and over the business cycle

Housing and mortgage debt are studied in a quantitative general equilibrium model. The model matches wealth distribution, age profiles of homeownership and debt, and frequency of housing adjustment. Over the cycle, the model matches the cyclicality and volatility of housing investment, and the procyclicality of debt. Higher individual income risk and lower downpayments can explain the reduced volatility of housing investment, the reduced procyclicality of debt, and part of the reduced volatility of GDP. In an experiment that mimics the Great Recession, countercyclical financial conditions can account for large drops in housing activity and debt following large negative shocks.     

Monitoring and forecasting annual public deficit every month: the case of France

In this paper we forecast annual budget deficits using monthly information. Using French monthly data on central government revenues and expenditures, the method we propose consists of: (1) estimating monthly ARIMA models for all items of central government revenues and expenditures; (2) inferring the annual ARIMA models from the monthly models; (3) using the inferred annual ARIMA models to perform one-step-ahead forecasts for each item; (4) compounding the annual forecasts of all revenues and expenditures to obtain an annual budget deficit forecast. The major empirical benefit of this technique is that as soon as new monthly data become available, annual deficit forecasts are updated. This allows us to detect in advance possible slippages in central government finances. For years 2002–2004, forecasts obtained following the proposed approach are compared with a benchmark method and with official predictions published by the French government. An evaluation of their relative performance is provided.      

Socio‐demographical antecedents of responsible consumerism propensity

The paper analyses consumers’ propensity for socially and environmentally friendly products through socio‐demographic indicators. Although the topic has been object of a wide literature, most of the previous studies suffered from methodological or sampling limitations. Hence, the present work addresses such limitations and proposes a study based on a wide heterogeneous sample of 5098 consumers, observed in their real settings. Results show the most responsible consumers are older, well‐educated and wealthy, while gender is not a significant antecedent. The in‐depth analysis of findings thus confirms the usefulness of socio‐demographic variables to understand and determine the profile of responsible consumers. However, the study denies that the propensity to buy responsible products relates to the different sensitiveness of men and women, whereas it underlines that age, education and wealth have a positive relationship. Moreover, the analysis identifies four different profiles of consumer based on the different levels of propensity towards responsible products, which confirms the influence of the socio‐demographic variables. This also allows identifying relevant indications on consumers’ decision making, useful to draw indications on possible effective marketing strategies for responsible products.