Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model

We provide methods for forecasting variables and predicting turning points in panel Bayesian VARs. We specify a flexible model, which accounts for both interdependencies in the cross section and time variations in the parameters. Posterior distributions for the parameters are obtained for hierarchical and for Minnesota-type priors. Formulas for multistep, multiunit point and average forecasts are provided. An application to the problem of forecasting the growth rate of output and of predicting turning points in the G-7 illustrates the approach. A comparison with alternative forecasting methods is also provided.     

Hold-up and externality: the firm as a nexus of incomplete rights?

The Coasean theory of the firm (Coase in Economica 4:386–405, 1937) has flourished with the theory of incomplete contracts. Transaction costs in the form of enforcement costs have been deemed to be the main determinants of the decision to ‘make’ versus ‘buy’. Surprisingly, this stream of literature has almost neglected that transaction costs may also generate incomplete property rights (Coase in J Law Econ 3:1–44, 1960). As firm’s activities entail both contractual and property rights, these two domains interfere each other on the decision to carry out a transaction within the firm. When property rights are incomplete, potential externalities may increase the cost of using the price mechanism to procure the assets needed in a given transaction. The resulting ‘Coasean firm’ would not only centralize incomplete contracts under a unified governance system, but it will also aggregate incomplete property rights under a unified ownership structure.     

The Euro — A Tale of 20 Years: What Are the Priorities Going Forward?

Intereconomics - First, we need to recall the initial objectives set for the euro and how these have changed over time, notably due to the weaknesses that came to the fore throughout the recent...     

Gender Differences in Financial Education: Evidence from Primary School

Today, financial and economic education is a primary issue in academia and among policy makers, and there is great interest towards programmes that are able to boost it. In this paper, we test whether a programme (“treatment”) of financial education on savings, targeted to children aged 8 and 9 is effective and to what extent. We measure the interest rate required by the children before and after the treatment to accept postponing a reward, computing its variation and comparing this with that of a control group. We find evidence that the overall initiative is helpful in decreasing the level of impatience of children and the number of inconsistent choices of boys. Our findings invite to reflect on the gender neutrality of programmes of financial education.