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A statistically optimal inference about agents' ex ante price expectations within the US broiler market is derived using futures prices of related commodities along with a quasi‐rational forecasting regression equation. The modelling approach, which builds on a Hamilton‐type framework, includes endogenous production and allows expected cash price to be decomposed into anticipated and unanticipated components. We therefore infer the relative importance of various informational sources in expectation formation. Results show that, in addition to the quasi‐rational forecast, the true supply shock, future prices, and ex post commodity price forecast errors have, at times, been influential in broiler producers' price expectations. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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above the certainty level while for additive uncertainty the price should be lower than the certainty level. This note gives an intuitive explanation for the result after first presenting a parsimonious review
of the two models. We also discuss which, if either, of the two models is more realistic.
Received December 14, 2001; revised version received July 16, 2002
Published online: April 30, 2003
We thank referees for helpful comments. Ciaran Driver would like to acknowledge the research facilities from ANU, Canberra
for their help in writing this paper. 相似文献
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Social constructionist theories of gender are utilised to explore the relationship between household accounting and patriarchy during the early twentieth century in the USA and Britain. This period witnessed a reformulation of the ideology of domesticity founded on precepts derived from modish scientific management. It is argued that the suite of calculative techniques prescribed by ‘household engineers’ merely attempted to occupy middle class women in the domestic sphere. Rather than offering a source of professionalisation and liberation, the practice of financial management, costing, record keeping and time and motion study, contributed to a reassertion of private patriarchy, confirmed the gendered nature of spatiality, reinforced the role of woman as a consumer and diverted attention from career building outside the home. 相似文献
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Explaining Japan’s recession 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Benjamin Powell 《Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics》2002,5(2):35-50