The Australian antitrust law after 20 years — a stocktake

The Australian Trade Practices Act 1974 is a court-centered law of the American type. After 20 years it has much to its credit — the abandonment of cartelization and the achievement of a coherent body of antitrust law focused upon market power as the central concept. The law has some distinctive features: the approach to market definition; the possibility of authorization on grounds of public benefit; the treatment of verticals. The challenge now is to expose the exempt sectors to the Act and to design a compatible regime for the corporatized and privatized utilities.     

Does Meeting Earnings Expectations Matter? Evidence from Analyst Forecast Revisions and Share Prices

This paper investigates whether the market rewards firms meeting current period earnings expectations, and whether any such reward reflects the implications of meeting expectations in the current period for future earnings or reflects a distinct market premium. We document that abnormal annual returns are significantly greater for firms meeting expectations, controlling for the information in the current year's earnings. We then test whether firms meeting expectations experience higher returns simply because their expected future earnings are also higher. We find firms meeting expectations have significantly higher earnings forecasts and realized earnings than firms that do not. We find that controlling for these higher future earnings, firms meeting expectations in one or two years do not receive a greater valuation than their fundamentals would suggest. We find, however, that the market assigns a higher value to firms that meet expectations consistently, controlling for an estimate of the firm's fundamental value.     

Discussion of “Why are Earnings Kinky? An Examination of the Earnings Management Explanation”

The Dechow et al. paper (2003, this issue) on the distribution of earnings raises an important question: why are earnings kinky? They conduct a number of tests of the earnings management explanation and do not find supportive evidence. They also provide evidence that a number of factors influence the magnitude of the discontinuity in earnings, suggesting that it is a poor proxy for the extent of earnings management. This discussion addresses the contribution of their study, the power of their tests and the implications for future research.     

Stopover destination image – perceptions of Dubai,United Arab Emirates,among French and Australian travellers

ABSTRACT

This study reports a rare investigation into the phenomenon of stopovers during long-haul international travel. Although destination image has been one of the most popular topics in the tourism literature, there has been a lack of attention by researchers regarding the context of stopover destination image for long-haul international air travellers. Indeed most studies have measured destination image without explicitly stating any travel context. A mixed methods approach in two geographically distant markets yielded externally valid findings. This study commenced with a qualitative stage in two countries to elicit attributes deemed salient to individuals when considering an international stopover. Attributes elicited from the two samples were triangulated with the most common themes reported in the destination image literature. A set of 29 attributes was then tested in two online surveys involving 777 consumers in Australia and France. The study highlights the value of engaging with consumers in a qualitative stage, to design a context-specific destination image questionnaire. By using this approach, 12 potentially determinant attributes of stopover destination attractiveness were identified, eight of which have not been commonly used in destination image studies, and one of which represents a new destination image attribute in the literature.     

ORGANISATIONAL COMMITMENT IN THE POLICE SERVICE: EXPLORING THE EFFECTS OF PERFORMANCE MEASURES,PROCEDURAL JUSTICE AND INTERPERSONAL TRUST

This study aims to investigate whether, and how, the use of performance measures, procedural justice, and interpersonal trust interact to affect organisational commitment of police officers. Drawing on a survey based on a sample of 57 senior officers within a single police force, we find that the use of performance measures, procedural justice, and interpersonal trust are positively associated with organisational commitment. Further analysis reveals that trust between officer and superior mediates the relationship between the use of non‐financial measures and organisational commitment, but procedural justice does not have a mediating effect on commitment. These findings are further explored through selected interviews with respondents.     

Have Financial Statements Become Less Informative? Evidence from the Ability of Financial Ratios to Predict Bankruptcy

Using a hazard model, we examine secular changes in the ability of financial statement data to predict bankruptcy from 1962 to 2002. We identify three trends in financial reporting that could influence predictive ability with respect to bankruptcy: FASB standards, the perceived increase in discretionary financial reporting behavior, and the increase in unrecognized assets and obligations. A parsimonious three-variable model provides significant explanatory power throughout the time period, with only a slight deterioration in predictive power from the first to the second time period. The striking feature of the results is the robustness of the predictive models over a forty-year period.JEL Classification: M41, G14, G33, C41     

“Watch that Space! The County Hierarchy in Firm Births and Deaths in the UK, 1980–1999”

The paper investigates the relationships between registrations, de-registrations and population density at county level in the UK using VAT data for 20 years over the period 1980–1999. The rationale for this is based on the need to understand how the extent to which, in different parts of the UK, differences in the relationship between birth rates and death rates combine to produce an interpretable pattern in net birth rates. The analysis of the net birth rate shows that a strategy aimed at the net birth rate might, in principle, just as well aim at reducing business failure, rather than raising the birth rate. Indeed this might be more efficient, since it implies that less start-ups are “wasted^” as it would avoid the necessity, if targets are to be reached, of encouraging those individuals who are patently unsuited to running their own business into business ownership.     

Characterization of optimal plans for stochastic dynamic programs

This paper provides general techniques for the characterization of optimal plans resulting from stochastic dynamic programming. We show that under standard assumptions the optimal plans in both finite and infinite horizon problems can be obtained by an application of the Implicit Function Theorem to first order conditions. Further, we show that under certain checkable conditions, optimal plans and value functions are p-times differentiable for any integer p ? 0. Finally, we apply our technique to obtain a C^p plan and value function in a one sector infinite horizon growth problem under uncertainty.