Governmental budgeting as ex ante financial accounting: The United Kingdom case

For many years now the academic governmental-budgeting literature has concentrated almost exclusively on the politics and economics of the budgetary process at the expense of the mechanical foundations. Consequently, we see an interesting but insulated discussion about political involvement and about the strengths and weaknesses of planning models. What we do not see is a discussion of the accounting perspective. This paper offers such a discussion. It explains local government budgeting as “ex ante financial accounting” and offers some important implications of this re-interpretation.     

Are organizational vegetables growing where you work?

The author breaks new ground with what may be the first taxonomy of supervisory and employee vegetables. He also offers some pruning tips to keep undesirable plants from taking root in your organization.     

Forecasting Real Inventories and the Anomaly of Money Illusion

While the transmission mechanism of inventory behavior in the business cycle has been studied, less effort has been devoted to applied forecasting of inventory change. Inventory fluctuations have accounted for a sizable portion of the changes in U.S. GDP during recessions over the past fifty years. In this paper, we report on out-of-sample forecasts of manufacturing and trade inventories generated by regression and neural network methodology. Our forecasting model is Metzlerian in approach, in that the divergence between actual and targeted sales is hypothesized as the primary cause of inventory imbalance. Our forecasts also rely on the slow adjustment of inventory investment to sales surprises. However, the likely presence of money illusion is a caveat to users, and we address several distortions it introduces to inventory management measures.     

Market Sentiments,Winner’s Curse and Bidding Outcome in Land Auctions

This paper empirically tests auction theory by examining how the stock market evaluates the outcome of open-bid English auctions of rights to develop residential real estate projects in Hong Kong. To do so, we deconstruct the complexity surrounding actual auction events, and empirically isolate the influence of conflicting auction theory predictions using data from expert opinion around auction events, actual auction event and outcome data, and stock market data. The empirical findings include (1) with increasing uncertainty bidders reduce bids, thus confirming predictions following the winner’s curse thesis; (2) joint bidding does not lead to increased bids based on pooled (“better”) information, but instead leads to reduced competition; while increased competition leads to increased prices at auction, as expected; (3) the market interprets auction outcomes as information events which function to signal developers’ expectations about future market prospects; but if the winning bid is considered too high, this interpretation is revised to that of the winner’s curse; (4) with joint bidding and winning, the market’s response to joint winners is better explained by concern for winner’s curse (despite supposed better informed bids) than the acquisition of a below cost development project following reduced competition at auction; and (5) the market interprets increased competition at auction as indicator of the future direction of property price movements in the secondary market—the more intense the competition, the more positive the future prospect of the property market are seen to be.     

Comparison of alternative methods of updating Input-Output tables: A note

Various methods for updating Input-Output tables have been proposed and comparisons have been made on statistical bases. In this note we show on theoretical bases that several linear programming formulations are not suitable to this problem, since a large proportion of the resulting coefficients assume arbitrarily preset values.     

Measurement errors and bounded OLS estimates

In a multiple linear regression model with one mismeasured independent variable, all coefficients are asymptotically biased. It is shown how in OLS, an examination of the sign of the cofactors of the variance-covariance matrix of measured values can be used to obtain large sample bounds on the coefficients. The method involves forward regression and regression on the mismeasured variable. Bounds are generally obtained on the coefficient of the mismeasured variable and often obtained on the remaining coefficients with no knowledge of the size of the measurement error.     

The ideology of class and tourism confronting the discourse of advertising

Starting from Baudrillard's analysis of the ideological character inherent in all consumption, touristic consumption, for many reasons ,has a special place in this social semantic. Here, advertising plays an important if not essential role because tourism is a product consumed outside of normal time and daily social space. Therefore the social semantic asserts itselfless through the product itself than through its representation: the discourse of advertising. But advertising discourse is plural, each form having its own ideology, competing with others. Behind the commercial competition lies a competition of social classes, but with a new typology, no longer based on the capital/favor relationship. Four ideological models are analyzed and illustrated with their advertising messages: the traditional model, the clerical/executive model, the youth model, and the “intellectual class” model.