Making real options work for practitioners: a generic model for valuing R&D projects

We propose a generic valuation framework for the appraisal of R&D projects based on real option theory. The added value of this approach is the presentation of a model that was implemented in a manner that allows corporate decision makers to use real options in an intuitive and standardized way. The project valuation procedure is separated into three main phases: project modeling, data and input collection, and result generation and analysis. The project model represents the structure of the real world R&D project with its investments, expected results, and decisions that need to be taken conditionally on the outcomes of research activities. The project model is represented in the form of a decision tree, where different research results or taken decisions lead to new branches. In this way, every possible situation the project can pass through can be represented. Uncertainties are separated into market uncertainties (e.g., market prices) and project specific, private uncertainties (e.g. uncertainty of research results). For both uncertainties, event trees are constructed which are then combined and merged with the above mentioned decision tree in order to represent the value evolution of the R&D project under given decisions and uncertainties. For every possible state of the project the real option value is calculated. By creating multidimensional trees, a multitude of decision steps and various kinds of real options (e.g., continue, expansion, switch, abandonment) can be modeled. The calculation complexity for the decision trees is given. From the tree structure we can calculate the real option value of starting an R&D project, i.e., the value of undertaking the first investment and thus acquiring the subsequent decision opportunities given by the completion of the first research effort. Furthermore, the optimal exercise strategy is derived from the decision tree. The exercise strategy gives the manager the possibility to have an a priori overview of where an R&D project may lead to, which decisions need to be taken in which circumstances, and when the project needs to be stopped in order not to generate losses. In an in‐depth case study we use an illustrative R&D project to set up and discuss the three phases of project modeling in the real options framework: building the multidimensional decision tree, input generation, and calculation of the real option value as well as the optimal strategy for the R&D project.     

Serial defaults, serial profits: Returns to sovereign lending in Habsburg Spain, 1566–1600

Philip II of Spain accumulated debts equivalent to 60% of GDP. He also defaulted four times on his short-term loans, thus becoming the first serial defaulter in history. Contrary to a common view in the literature, we show that lending to the king was profitable even under worst-case scenario assumptions. Lenders maintained long-term relationships with the crown. Losses sustained during defaults were more than compensated by profits in normal times. Defaults were not catastrophic events. In effect, short-term lending acted as an insurance mechanism, allowing the king to reduce his payments in harsh times in exchange for paying a premium in tranquil periods.     

Investor Expectations and the North American Free Trade Agreement

The paper uses a stock market event study to examine investors' expectations of NAFTA's effect on the profitability of manufacturing industries in the USA, Canada, and Mexico. The main finding is that factor intensity, specifically a measure of the industry–wide labor–capital ratio, is the most significant determinant of excess returns. The results suggest that investors believed the NAFTA would favor industries that used abundant factors intensively and reduce profitability in industries that relied heavily on scarce factors; and, more generally, that factor intensity is a primary source of comparative advantage. No significant relationship was found between the relative scale of industries among the three countries and the NAFTA's expected influence on profitability.     

The Argentine stabilization plan of December 20th

In this paper an analytical model is developed to incorporate the essential characteristics of the stabilization plan implemented in Argentina in January 1979. The model is based upon a set of simplifying assumptions that only approximate the complexity of the real world. It is assumed that the expectations of inflation and the degree of excess demand or supply in the non-traded goods market are the main intermediate determinants of the rate of inflation in that market, the rate of change of prices of traded goods being determined by the external inflation together with the rate of devaluation. Treating thus the external rate of inflation as exogenous, the only instrument available for influencing the rate of inflation in the long run is the rate of devaluation. Since the model assumes a fixed exchange rate regime, the money supply is endogenous and hence unsuitable as an instrument of economic policy.     

Brain drain and economic growth: A dynamic model

The problem of the international migration of educated people is analyzed in the context of a dynamic economy where individuals are faced with three basic decisions: education, acquisition of physical capital and migration. The paper discusses the transitional and steady-state behaviour of such an economy, and in addition incorporates a detailed dynamic analysis of the effects of minimum wages and of the implementation of a migration tax.     

SME Export Performance in Indonesia After the Crisis

Firms in export-oriented sectors with more exporters and more foreign investment, or firms with more access/use of credit, tend to export a higher share of their output, whether they are small or large. The latter points out that the benefits of size-neutral policies that improve the overall business and foreign investment climate and secure access to formal credit for all enterprises produce benefits for the entire economy. Small firms with higher use of machinery and higher use of domestic inputs displayed a higher likelihood to increase the share of their output exported. SMEs show rising productivity with access and use of appropriate production inputs. Decades of protective size-specific policies, such as the reservation scheme for SMEs still in place in Indonesia’s manufacturing may have distorted, more than supported, adoption of appropriate technologies among SMEs. These policies may need to be revisited and refocused on more size-neutral policies such as improved access to collateral or reduced cost of business registration and licensing.     

Sustainable Development and Corporate Performance: A Study Based on the Dow Jones Sustainability Index

While corporate social responsibility (CSR) is becoming a mainstream issue for many organizations, most of the research to date addresses CSR in large businesses rather than in small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), because it is too often considered a prerogative of large businesses only. The role of SMEs in an increasingly dynamic context is now being questioned, including what factors might affect their socially responsible behaviour. The goal of this paper is to make a comparison of SME and large firm CSR strategies. Furthermore, size of the firm is analyzed as a factor that influences specific choices in the CSR field, and studied by means of a sample of 3,680 Italian firms. Based on a multi-stakeholder framework, the analysis provides evidence that large firms are more likely to identify relevant stakeholders and meet their requirements through specific and formal CSR strategies.     

Does mobile money use increase firms’ investment? Evidence from Enterprise Surveys in Kenya,Uganda, and Tanzania

Private investment can be an important engine of economic growth in East African countries that are plagued with adverse economic conditions, despite recent growth rates. Against this backdrop, there has been substantial penetration of mobile money, moving beyond simple person-to-person exchanges towards adoption by private firms. This study explores whether there is a relationship between firm adoption of mobile money and firm investment. Using firm-level data that are nationally representative of the private sector in three East African countries—Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda—a positive relationship is found between mobile money use and firm’s purchase of fixed assets. This relationship is attributed to reduced transaction costs, increased liquidity, and increased credit worthiness associated with the use of mobile phone financial services. The finding is largely driven by small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).     

Markov Chains and Regression toward the Mean

Using the theory of stationary Markov chains, we uncover a previously unknown property of the behavior of betas. Specifically, if the cross-sectional distribution of betas is stationary over time, then the set of firms that remain in an arbitrarily chosen beta interval between one period and the next will not regress toward the mean. This surprising result occurs in spite of the well-known fact that the set of all the firms in the interval will exhibit the regression tendency. Our empirical tests indicate that betas behave in remarkable accordance with this prediction.     

Beating market expectations and the pricing of firms’ probability of default

This study explores the impact of beating analysts' forecasts on investors' perceptions about firms' default probability. The information contained in analysts’ forecasts, both earnings and revenues, provides additional information to investors in pricing CDSs. While previous research has focused on the impact of beating analysts’ earnings forecasts, this study shows that firms that beat analysts' revenue forecasts also experience, on average, a decrease in the CDS premium around the earnings announcement date. This study also documents that the effect is stronger when firms beat/miss both earnings and revenue forecasts. When firms beat (miss) earnings and miss (beat) revenues, the effect of earnings is the dominant signal. These effects are stronger for firms with high levels of default risk.