The curse of Moctezuma: American silver and the Dutch disease

This study formalizes and empirically tests the conjecture that the discovery of large silver reserves in its American colonies during the 1540s triggered in Spain a case of Dutch disease, diverting factors of production to non-traded goods industries and undermining the Spanish comparative advantages in the Early Modern Age. I develop an open-economy model to mimic the economic conditions in Imperial Spain. I then present new consumption weights built from primary sources, which I combine with existing price data to produce price indexes for traded and non-traded goods; these are then used to test the implications of the model in a Markov-switching regression framework. I identify a strong and persistent increase in the relative price of non-traded goods coinciding with the silver discoveries, lasting for almost three decades and reversing itself only after the 1575 and 1579 crown bankruptcies.     

Measuring Urban Well-Being

A BSTRACT . Studies attempting to measure social well-being that focus attention at national levels fail to provide insights into the actual conditions that are present at subnational levels. With increased attention being focused on the conditions of urban areas, the need for subnational evaluation is becoming more apparent. The growing diversity of the population and the increase in female-headed households leave researchers without resources for evaluating the conditions of these groups in smaller regional settings, in part due to the scarcity of well-being measurements at these levels. This study hopes to fill in the gap for measuring well-being at subnational levels by estimating indexes at the county level. Exactly how the level of urbanization and social well-being are related is the subject of our inquiry. Our estimations will focus on urban counties, with particular emphasis on the 50 largest counties. We aim to evaluate the well-being of the general population in metropolitan areas, comparing it to those for female heads of households and people of color.     

Road Travelers' Motivations and Loyalty: Train Versus Bus Services

ABSTRACT

Railroad and highway travel may differ not only in terms of their nature but also in terms of their appeal to travelers. Travelers may have different motivations to use either transportation mode in either inbound or outbound directions. Travelers may also demand different services or service traits of the provider in order to gain satisfaction in the short-term and/or become loyal customers in the long-term. This study uses a 2?×?2 design to compare train and a bus service between two cities 250 km apart in a country where these two means of transportation are equally essential. The study also compares the outbound and inbound routes in order to acknowledge additional differences in both the travelers' motivations and the customers' loyalty formation. The results show that travelers' motivations for choosing train or bus transportation differ based on whether they are leaving from or returning to the city that was the original point of departure. They also show that customers' long-term relationships with the provider significantly differ according to means of transportation and routes used. Characteristically, customers in the studied sample prefer train transport to leave and bus to return based on their idiosyncratic motivations of seeking value or money savings and their expectations of mutual loyalty. This research suggests practical consequences both for understanding travelers' motivations and customer loyalty formation and for managing policies regarding train and bus services competing for specific segments of travelers.     

X-Factor updating and total factor productivity growth: the case of peruvian telecommunications, 1996–2003

This paper measures TFP growth of Telefonica del Peru, and based on this growth rate computes a telecommunications X-factor or offset. More broadly the paper analyses the problem of updating an X-factor under existing price cap regulation. A revised offset must account for the possible restructuring of service offerings resulting from improved efficiencies in response to price cap incentives. Our updating framework focuses on efficiency criteria, and based on economic principles emphasizes the continuity between prior and continuing standards. In the case of Peru, based on annual average TFP growth of 1.66%, the X-factor is computed to be 4.06% per year. An erratum to this article can be found at     

An empirical analysis of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Wall Street Journal’s</Emphasis> SmartMoney fund screen

We examine mutual funds that appeared in the Wall Street Journal’s SmartMoney Fund Screen column from September 2004 through July 2009. We find that the majority of funds listed do not have Morningstar’s highest five star rating. Regardless of Morningstar rating, the average prepublication performance of the funds is significantly higher than the benchmarks used to measure performance. Post publication, fund performance declines, and the decline is statistically significant across our performance measures. However, additional tests indicate that the SmartMoney funds which have a three or four star rating from Morningstar are better investment values than corresponding five star Morningstar funds with the same prospectus objective and expense ratio.     

Warfare, fiscal capacity, and performance

We exploit differences in casualties sustained in pre-modern wars to estimate the impact of fiscal capacity on economic performance. In the past, states fought different amounts of external conflicts, of various lengths and magnitudes. To raise the revenues to wage wars, states made fiscal innovations, which persisted and helped to shape current fiscal institutions. Economic historians claim that greater fiscal capacity was the key long-run institutional change brought about by historical conflicts. Using casualties sustained in pre-modern wars to instrument for current fiscal institutions, we estimate substantial impacts of fiscal capacity on GDP per worker. The results are robust to a broad range of specifications, controls, and sub-samples.     

Oil shocks and fiscal policy procyclicality in Angola: Assessing the role of asymmetries and institutions

The aim of this article is to examine procyclicality in Angola, assess whether it behaves asymmetrically over the oil cycle, and test the hypothesis that institutions and fiscal rules can moderate procyclicality. Received wisdom suggests that in resource‐rich economies, fiscal policy tends to be procyclical albeit improvements in the past decades due to institutional reforms. Similar evidence is available for oil‐rich economies; however, we know little about how procyclicality behaves over the oil cycle; that is, whether spending (and revenue) grows faster during oil‐market booms, than during downturns. Further, evidence on institutions and fiscal rules in oil‐exporting economies is still ambiguous. We bridge both gaps by examining fiscal policy procyclicality in Angola, one of the largest oil‐producers in Africa, and a country that has experienced an intense process of institutional reforms since 2002. Therefore, it is an ideal candidate for our study. We use data for the 2004–2014 period to estimate a threshold vector error correction model that extends vector autoregressive and vector correction methods used up to date. Our results indicate that revenue and spending are generally procyclical to oil shocks, that revenue is more procyclical during booms, and that institutional quality, net inflows, financial openness, and fiscal rules affect procyclicality.     

Profitability and social impacts of reduced impact logging in the Tapajós National Forest, Brazil — A case study

Brazil contains the world's largest tropical rainforests, most located in the Amazon River Basin. Over the last three decades, rapid growth of this region's deforested area has had negative impacts. To minimize these impacts and maintain biodiversity, the Brazilian Government has established several national forests in the Basin. The ITTO Project, a reduced impact logging (RIL) operation, was recently carried out at one of these forests: the Tapajós National Forest, also known as Flona Tapajós. This paper evaluates the Project's profitability and its effect on local residents. The Project, which ran between 1999 and 2003, was coordinated by the Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (IBAMA), with funding for planning and monitoring provided by the United Kingdom's Department of International Development (DFID) working through and approved by the International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO). Treviso Agropecuária Ltda, a private logging company, carried out timber extraction on the Project site. Our evaluation found the ITTO Project to have been highly profitable for Treviso, even after their compliance with all Brazilian labor and environmental laws. This finding was based on field interviews and the examination of documents from IBAMA and Treviso. Treviso's mean internal rate of return from the Project was calculated to have been 35.79%, considerably higher than that generated by the region's farms and ranches. The ITTO Project positively impacted Project workers, providing employment and exposing them to rainforest management techniques that maximize timber production while minimizing forest destruction. The paper closes by suggesting that more of the direct and indirect benefits of new reduced impact logging projects on Brazilian national forest land need to be channeled to the local population to increase the probability of them act as capable forest custodians.     

IDENTIFYING VULNERABILITY TO POVERTY: A CRITICAL SURVEY

In the economic literature on poverty, various methods have been proposed for measuring a phenomenon known as ‘vulnerability’. However, after more than a quarter century of research, no consensus has been reached on how to identify such vulnerable individuals within a given population. Some misunderstandings have also arisen from the overlapping of other closely related concepts, such as the expectation of being poor, expected poverty, multi‐period poverty and risk exposure. This paper offers a detailed conceptual discussion on vulnerability to poverty and its related elements, reviewing a wide range of identifying criteria provided in the literature. It is found that according to the state of the art in this field of research, two key elements stand out in identifying vulnerable individuals: an expected well‐being below the poverty line and a relevant risk of falling into poverty due to downside deviation from a reference level of well‐being. The traditional classification of vulnerability approaches has been updated into four groups: (i) those that stress the element of exposure to risk; (ii) those that emphasize the element of expected poverty; (iii) those that define vulnerability through a utility gap and (iv) those that are supported by a mean‐risk dominance criterion.     

IDENTIFYING THE EFFECTS OF SIMULTANEOUS MONETARY POLICY SHOCKS

Many central banks, particularly in the developing world, aim for exchange rate stability as a macroeconomic goal. However, most are reluctant to relinquish monetary policy autonomy, so they end up operating through both interest rate and foreign exchange interventions. But the use of multiple policy instruments does not necessarily equip monetary authorities with better tools to achieve their targets. On the contrary, their effects can potentially offset each other. Using daily data from the Central Bank of Colombia during the period of 1999–2012, I study the effects of simultaneous policies by first deriving new measures of monetary shocks and then determining their impact on economic activity. The main findings indicate that (a) while interest rate interventions have a significant impact on real and nominal variables, foreign exchange interventions tend to have limited effects; and (b) empirical anomalies, such as the positive relationship between output growth, inflation, and the policy rate are eliminated when properly accounting for the systematic responses of policy. (JEL E43, E52, E58, F31)