Think again: Why good leaders make bad decisions

Sydney Finkelstein, Jo Whitehead , and Andrew Campbell studied decisions made around the world and researched those that were flawed at their inception. Their caveats for making decisions will help you to avoid some common errors.     

Trajectories of Russian manufacturing firms’ growth after the global financial crisis of 2008–2009: the role of restructuring efforts and regional institutional environment

The aim of this article is to conduct an empirical investigation and reveal which types of modernisation strategies and characteristics of regional institutional environment are likely to be associated with patterns of the performance of Russian manufacturing firms in 2007–2012. In addition to estimating the impact of ex-ante behaviour on the rate of sales growth, we use hierarchical cluster analysis to reveal the typical trajectories of firms’ sales growth. We find that the dynamic of sales for more than 90% of firms can be described by just two types of performance curve: (a) crisis decline with recovery and growth; and (b) crisis decline with weak recovery and stagnation. Firms that invested more prior to the crisis and implemented active restructuring were more likely to have positive post-crisis dynamics of sales. We find evidence that firms in the regions with lower levels of corruption (both administrative and everyday) were more likely to recover successfully after the crisis.     

Redistribution by insurance market regulation: Analyzing a ban on gender-based retirement annuities

We illustrate how equilibrium screening models can be used to evaluate the economic consequences of insurance market regulation. We calibrate and solve a model of the United Kingdom's compulsory annuity market and examine the impact of gender-based pricing restrictions. We find that the endogenous adjustment of annuity contract menus in response to such restrictions can undo up to half of the redistribution from men to women that would occur with exogenous Social Security-like annuity contracts. Our findings indicate the importance of endogenous contract responses and illustrate the feasibility of employing theoretical insurance market equilibrium models for quantitative policy analysis.     

Preemptive entry in differentiated product markets

Summary. Models of spatial competition are typically static, and exhibit multiple free-entry equilibria. Incumbent firms can earn rents in equilibrium because any potential entrant expects a significantly lower market share (since it must fit into a niche between incumbent firms) along with fiercer price competition. Previous research has usually concentrated on the zero-profit equilibrium, at which there is normally excessive entry, and so an entry tax would improve the allocation of resources. At the other extreme, the equilibrium with the greatest rent per firm normally entails insufficient entry, so an entry subsidy should be prescribed. A model of sequential firm entry (with an exogenous order of moves) resolves the multiplicity problem but raises a new difficulty: firms that enter earlier can expect higher spatial rents, and so firms prefer to be earlier in the entry order. This tension disappears when firms can compete for entry positions. We therefore suppose that firms can commit capital early to the market in order to lay claim to a particular location. This temporal competition dissipates spatial rents in equilibrium and justifies the sequential move structure. However, the policy implications are quite different once time is introduced. An atemporal analysis of the sequential entry process would prescribe an entry subsidy, but once proper account is taken of the entry dynamics, a tax may be preferable. Received: April 26, 1999; revised version: September 22, 1999     

Modelling the dynamics of decision-making for emerging medical technologies

There has been considerable interest in systematic methods for technology assessment that can be used to evaluate the social impact of medical practices. Policy-makers have been attracted to these methods because they offer a capability to logically and systematically analyze a decision. Assessing newly "emerging" technologies proves most difficult because practitioners' perceptions of their clinical effectiveness are continually changing. We propose and illustrate a mathematical model framework which, when simulated by computer, could serve as a tool to help analyze future consequences of hypothetical alternative public policies for emerging medical technologies.