Conform or challenge? Adjustment strategies of sanction-torn companies

The literature on sanctions often neglects the role of domestic firms in sender states, although sanctions only have a real economic effect when senders’ firms reduce their activities on the target's market. In contrast, sanctions avoidance and increasing investments in the target country (the observed behaviour of many companies facing the EU sanctions against Russia imposed in 2014) mitigate the impact of these restrictive measures. While sanctions increase the political risk for companies, they also offer economic opportunities—and previous studies could not settle the debate on which factor prevails. By evaluating responses from British, French, German, Italian and Polish enterprises to an online survey distributed in 2017, we analyse at the firm level how sanction-torn companies adjust to new political orders and what drives their strategic decisions. We find evidence that resource dependency induces strategies that challenge sanction policies: in particular, non-fungible assets in the target country incentivise companies to further increase their engagement. These defiance strategies diminish the real economic effect of sanctions and generate a new economic equilibrium, which has negative long-term implications on the choice set of policymakers to further pursue the imposition of sanctions and which even outlasts the lifting of these restrictive measures.     

Assessing the stochastic stability of public debt: the case of Austria

This paper characterizes the long-run distribution of Austrian public debt using a Markov chain model of the debt-GDP ratio and several key macroeconomic variables. We apply Bayesian techniques to estimate the transition probabilities of the model which allows to incorporate information from other countries. Based on the model, we argue that the historical record of Austrian fiscal policy is consistent with a stable long-run distribution of the debt-GDP ratio with an expected value close to the 60% threshold of the Maastricht treaty. Our results suggests that the strong increase in the debt-GDP ratio in the aftermath of the recent financial crisis should be seen as a transitory tail event rather than as a sign of long-run unsustainability. However, we also show that the existence of a stable long-run distribution depends on a continuing tendency of fiscal policy to “lean against debt” by reducing the primary deficit in face of rising debt. Finally we assess how exogenous shocks to the primary deficit and real GDP growth affect the model-implied distribution.     

Organizational learning through post–project reviews in R&D

Post–project reviews are one opportunity to systematically improve performance in subsequent projects. However, a survey reveals that only one out of five R&D projects receives a post–project review. Post–project reviews – if they take place – are typically constrained by lack of time and attention as well as lack of personal interest and ability. They focus mostly on technical output and bureaucratic measurements; process–related factors such as project management are rarely discussed.
In this paper we review the role of post–project meetings as a tool to improve organizational learning at the group level. Based on 27 in–depth interviews with R&D managers carried out between 1997 and 2001, we categorize four classes of learning impediments. These difficulties are not easily resolved, as is illustrated by examples from Hewlett–Packard, DaimlerChrysler, SAP, Unisys, the US Army, and others. We propose a five–level post–project review capability maturity model, identifying some of the key capabilities that need to be in place in order to advance to the next process maturity level. Most companies reside on the first or second maturity level. Our conclusion is that many companies give away great potential for competence building by neglecting post–project reviews as a tool for systematic inter–project learning.     

How federally insured reverse mortgages affect the credit outcomes of older adults

This study examines how the extraction of home equity through the federally insured Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) affects the credit outcomes of older adults. We use data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel, supplemented with a unique credit panel data set of reverse mortgage borrowers. Using matched sample difference-in-differences with individual fixed effects, we estimate credit outcomes for older adults who borrowed through a HECM between 2008 and 2011, relative to older homeowners not borrowing from home equity. Our results indicate that the HECM is associated with a short-term reduction in revolving credit card debt, as well as a reduction in the probability of bankruptcy. We find some evidence of heterogeneous treatment effects, where older adults with higher levels of consumer debt prior to originating a HECM experience larger subsequent declines in debt, increases in credit score, and steeper reductions in bankruptcy rates.     

Blockchain Applications in Supply Chain Transactions

Blockchains, a disruptive technology with potentially many applications in modern‐day supply chain (SC) transactions, have not been adequately reflected by theory. Researchers and business managers must understand where and when blockchains’ application may be expected and investigated. The present study clarifies the discussion about blockchain application areas (BAAs) in SC transactions and their relevance for businesses. This study combines the findings from three methodological approaches: an extant literature review, a Delphi study, and a survey of 151 German machinery and equipment sector business managers. The results further our understanding of blockchains’ business opportunities among SC transactions and verify and extend Iansiti and Lakhani’s (Harvard Business Review 2017; 95: 118) blockchain adoption framework. Verified customer reviews and product quality certification are identified as the most relevant blockchain usages in SC transactions. Interestingly, we anticipate the least likely adoption of blockchains to occur for document‐signing processes despite arguments within the literature that suggest otherwise. Two newly identified BAAs—logistics and delivery systems—and token‐curated registries rank among the top four most relevant. The present study’s valuation of BAAs advances theory and will likely affect business strategies by indicating where, when, and why businesses should participate in blockchain networks.     

Farm Acreage Shocks and Crop Prices: An SVAR Approach to Understanding the Impacts of Biofuels

The last 10?years have seen tremendous expansion in biofuels production, particularly in corn ethanol in the United States, at the same time that commodity prices (e.g., corn) have experienced significant spikes. While supporters claim that biofuels are renewable and carbon-friendly, concerns have been raised about their impacts on land use and food prices. This paper analyzes how US crop prices have responded to shocks in acreage supply; these shocks can be thought of as a shock to the residual supply of corn for food. Using a structural vector auto-regression framework, we examine shocks to a crop??s own acreage and to total cropland. This allows us to estimate the effect of dedicating cropland or non-crop farmlands to biofuels feedstock production. A negative shock in own acreage leads to an increase in price for soybeans and corn. Our calculations show that increased corn ethanol production during the boom production year 2006/2007 explains approximately 27% of the experienced corn price rise.