Sentiment,Loss Firms,and Investor Expectations of Future Earnings*

This study investigates the mispricing of market‐wide investor sentiment by exploring the relation between sentiment and investor expectations of future earnings. Prior research argues that sentiment‐driven mispricing should be most pronounced for hard‐to‐value firms, such as those reporting losses (Baker and Wurgler 2006). Using investor expectations of future earnings, we provide empirical results consistent with this behavioral finance theory. We predict and find that investors perceive losses to be more (less) persistent during periods of low (high) sentiment; that (in contrast) investors perceive profit persistence to be lower (higher) during periods of low (high) sentiment; and that the effects appear stronger for loss firms relative to profit firms. We also document predictable cross‐sectional variation within losses (with the mispricing mitigated for losses associated with activities expected to generate future benefits), R&D, growth, large negative special items, and severe financial distress. Overall, our results document a new and important channel—investor expectations of future earnings—to explain sentiment‐driven mispricing.     

A Long‐Run Performance Perspective on the Technology Bubble

The events surrounding the stock price peak of March 2000 are commonly interpreted as the bursting of a technology or Internet bubble, with some researchers pointing out that the pattern could also arise in fundamental models. We inform the debate by studying the long‐run performance of Internet and technology stocks from March 2000 onward. Using calendar‐time regressions, we do not find conclusive evidence of negative abnormal returns. The results are consistent with a new interpretation of the events; namely, the price drop of the early 2000s was not warranted in light of future cash flows and risk.     

Should I stay,or should I go? – How fund dynamics influence venture capital exit decisions

We investigate the determinants of venture capital (VC) exit behavior after the lockup expiry in initial public offerings (IPOs) by considering insights from prospect theory and behavioral finance for the first time. Hereby, the paper concentrates on the under-researched relationship between fund managers and the limited partners investing in these funds. The results from a proprietary dataset of 292 U.S. VC-backed IPOs from 1991 to 2008 imply that VC firm characteristics and fund dynamics have a significant influence on the exit extent after the lockup expiry and may not always be in line with limited partners' interests, hinting at the relevance of behavior grounded in prospect theory. In particular, first-time funds keep their shares longer after an IPO, whereas funds satisfied with current fund performance cash out soon after the end of the lockup period.     

Banking regulation in the European union: Some issues and concerns

Banking regulation and supervision in the EU today has to be conducted in accordance with the Single Market legislation promulgated by the European Commission. The creation of a European Single Market in financial services, which was provided for in the Treaty of Rome of 1957 and in the Single European Act of July 1987 which revised it, was originally planned for completion by the end of 1992, although the final pieces of the jigsaw were not in place until the beginning of 1996. This article explains what the European Single Market in financial services represents, the rationale for it, and the measures, including the use of legally binding Directives, adopted to deliver it on the banking front. It concludes with a discussion and analysis of some of the issues and concerns which implementation of the Single Market program for banking services has given rise to, with special emphasis being placed on the evolution of minimum capital standards for banks.     

A macroeconomic hedge portfolio and the cross section of stock returns

We use a stock's returns on days when important macroeconomic news is released to form a hedge portfolio, which is long (short) in stocks which have a sensitive (insensitive) reaction to the surprise component of the macroeconomic news. This macroeconomic hedge portfolio (MHP) earns a risk premium of about 5% p.a. over time and a similar premium when used as a risk factor in an asset pricing model. This premium can be interpreted as a cost of an insurance against unexpected changes in an investor's marginal utility. We show that risk premiums associated with the MHP are estimated with a higher precision than traditional macroeconomic tracking portfolios. Furthermore, when the MHP is present in a common factor model, risk factors like high minus low lose much of their ability to explain the cross section of stock returns.     

Which factors support trust in the recommendation process of pension products? Trust and pension products

During the financial crisis of 2008/2009, financial institutions such as banks and insurance companies have lost trust of their customers. In the recommendation process of pension products, trust plays an important role since cash flows from retirement products accrue decades ahead. Using the results from a survey, we find that financial institutions still struggle to deliver trust to their customers when they recommend different categories of retirement products. Other recommending parties such as academic financial experts or close friends, however, are able to establish a high level of trust. We therefore investigate factors of alternative channels to establish trust such as the recommendation process or product features.

     

The pricing of temperature futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange

This paper analyzes observed prices of US temperature futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Results show that an index modeling approach without detrending captures the prices exceptionally well. Moreover, weather forecasts significantly influence prices up to 11 days ahead. It is shown that valuations of temperature futures relying on a model without detrending yield biased valuations by overpricing winter contracts and underpricing summer contracts. Several trading strategies are devised to exploit the mispricing observed at the CME and to demonstrate that speculating on temperature futures can not only generate high overall returns, but also perform well on a risk-adjusted basis.     

Structure and characteristics of top management teams as antecedents of outside executive appointments: a three-country study

We examine top management team (TMT) structure and characteristics as potential endogenous antecedents of outside appointments of non-CEO senior executives, an executive category that has not yet received significant research attention despite its importance for corporate outcomes. In doing so, we draw on human capital and similarity-attraction theories, thus combining two complementary managerial decision rationales. Additionally addressing the pressing need for cross-country TMT research, this study empirically analyzes a unique sample of 880 non-CEO TMT appointments at large non-financial corporations in France, Germany and the UK between 2006 and 2010. Overall, the results show that TMT endogenous factors such as structure, new executive characteristics and incumbent TMT characteristics may hold significant explanatory power for new executives' origin. Beyond the individual explanatory factors, the comparative nature of the study reveals three distinct country profiles of the degree by which the two theoretical rationales appear to influence appointment decisions.