Interactions between real economic and financial sides of the US economy in a regime-switching environment

This objective of this study is to examine the linkages between real (economic) and financial variables in the United States in a regime-switching environment that accounts explicitly for high volatility in the stock market and high stress in financial markets. Since the linearity test shows that the linear model should be rejected, we employ the Markov-switching VECM to examine the same objective using the Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo method. The regime-dependent impulse response function (RDIRF) highlights the increasing importance of the financial sector of the economy during stress periods. The responses and their fluctuations are significantly greater in the high-volatility regime than in the low-volatility regime.     

Fixed price equilibria in an overlapping generations model with investment

We study fixed price temporary equilibria (with rationing) and sequences of temporary equilibria in a three commodities (goods, labor, bonds) overlapping generations model with endogenous investment. Young consumers, living two periods, work, consume, and buy bonds for financing next period's consumption. New firms, existing for two periods, make a production plan for the next period, taking into account expected rationing, assumed similar to present rationing. The plan determines the amount of goods to buy as capital, financed by bonds. Old firms produce, using labor and the previously bought capital. Different regimes exist and expectations can be self-fulfilling and self-destroying.We are grateful to the referees for helpful comments.     

CONTROLLING SERIOUS FINANCIAL CRIME: A JAMAICAN PERSPECTIVE

This paper examines the approach taken by Jamaica to control money laundering, terrorist financing and market abuse. With respect to money laundering and terrorist financing, the discussion involves a review of the statutory offences, the confiscation/forfeiture regime and the reporting obligations imposed on the financial sector. The analysis of market abuse focuses on both insider dealing and market manipulation.     

Parental Income and Continuing Education of Second Generation Immigrants in Sweden

Understanding the economic integration of minority ethnic communities requires an analysis of the educational process. This paper examines second‐generation immigrant youths’ educational attainments in comparison with those of similarly aged native Swedes. Binomial‐logit, grouped‐regression and multinomial‐logit models are applied to longitudinal data, 1991–1996. The results give evidence for socioeconomic determinants of post‐compulsory education and for parental influence on educational choices. Parental income affects second‐generation immigrants’ post‐compulsory education and Swedes’ choice of level of education. In general, the stronger the labour market positions of the parents, the higher the probability of the children continuing education. It is also found that the geographical origin of second‐generation immigrants matter, with youths of Asian origin having a higher probability of continuing their education. We suggest policy changes on different levels based on the evidence of the paper, as short‐run, long‐run and in general.     

Consumer credit and monetary policy in Malaysia

What is the impact of monetary policy on the Malaysian consumer? The study addresses this issue by empirically investigating the consequences of interest rate shocks on consumer credit in Malaysia. The study relies on the impulse response functions and the variance decomposition analysis based on the structural Vector Auto‐regression methodology. Apart from analysing the responses of aggregate consumer loans (ACL) to interest rate changes, further disaggregation is made in efforts to arrive at more detailed findings. In particular, the ACL data are categorized into loans for purchase of residential property, loans for personal uses, loans for credit cards, loans for purchase of consumer durables, loans for purchase of passenger cars and loans for purchase of securities. Through this disaggregation, the study shows the relative sensitivity of the various types of consumer loans to interest rate shocks.     

Quantifying the socio-economic determinants of sustainable crop production: an application to wheat cultivation in the Tarai of Nepal

This study specifies a procedure to quantify the determinants of sustainable crop production, and applies the method to wheat cultivation in the Tarai of Nepal. Three aspects of sustainability were considered. First, the fertility of the land was found to have deteriorated owing to long-term practices incompatible with soil and drainage conditions. Three-quarters of the farmers had reduced land fertility and for one-third of them the wheat yield was at least 20% lower than for farmers who applied farmyard manure to every crop and adopted a rotation consistent with soil and drainage conditions. Secondly, the study found that it was possible to improve resource-use efficiency in wheat production to give 25% higher production at current levels, type, and quality of farm resources. Resource-use efficiency was significantly related to farm management practices such as crop stand, variety, disease, and land preparation quality, and socio-economic factors such as off-farm job opportunities, poor plot accessibility, and migration. Thirdly, the increasing population pressure on land, decreasing livestock number per cropped area, and diminishing fuel wood sources, significantly reduced farm-based nutrient cycling because farmyard manure had to be used for fuel. This had implications for the higher use of the fossil-based inputs in crop production.     

Consumption-based CAPM models: International evidence

We examine the performance of several types of the consumption-based CAPM (C-CAPM) models to explore if consumption factors matter for determining excess returns across 17 MSCI country indexes. While the classic world C-CAPM does exhibit some power in explaining cross-sectional variations of expected excess returns, the model seems to require an implausibly large coefficient of risk aversion. The more sophisticated models including the heterogeneous C-CAPM, the world surplus consumption and the habit-formation models provide more reasonable estimates and add substantial explanatory power for the variation in the cross section of excess stock returns. Our results suggest that country-specific consumption risk is not fully diversified thus implying that stock returns are related to idiosyncratic consumption risk.     

MODELLING THE ADAPTATION OF BUSINESS CONTINUITY PLANNING BY BUSINESSES USING NEURAL NETWORKS

Business continuity planning is an important element of business continuity management and is regarded as a fundamental step towards reducing the negative impacts of business disruptions caused by internal and external hazardous events. Many businesses are not prepared for such events, and very few studies have tried to examine and model the factors that contribute to business continuity management planning by various companies. In this paper we propose and develop a feed‐forward neural network for modelling businesses continuity planning by businesses based on a dataset of 283 businesses operating in the Greater Toronto Area in Ontario, Canada. The fully connected neural network applied was trained on 65 % of the dataset records using different subsets of input variables. In order to preserve the generalization ability of the trained network, 15 % of the dataset records were used as a validation set for early stopping during the network's training process. Prediction capability of the trained networks was evaluated on 20 % and never‐seen records of the dataset. The classification ability of the networks was then analysed using receiver operating characteristic and detection error trade‐off curves, where the results obtained were promising. The equal error rate for the best models was 12 %, which reflects a very good accuracy of these models in predicting the existence of business continuity planning for a generic company. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.