How do IMF announcements affect financial markets in crises?: Evidence from forward exchange markets

We employ a theoretical model to interpret the liquidity and moral hazard effects of IMF support during a financial crisis. We then estimate the response of forward exchange markets to IMF-related announcements, using data on the 3-, 9-, and 12-month forward exchange rates. Our results indicate that the announcement of IMF negotiations is associated with a premium on the baht and the rupiah, where the premium is much larger on the latter. This result is largely consistent with the responses of stock and bond markets, especially when country-specific data are employed.     

Building the future: Undertaking proactive strategy for national outlook

Future studies should provide the means to forecast potential crisis in order to avoid them or limit their effects [Masini, E. 2006, Rethinking futures studies, Futures 38, 1158-1168]. Recognizing and realizing the future events from past up to the present have been the main concern of the rulers and policy makers from the very beginning of civilization. Future studies are a decisive part of the public decision process which plays a very distinctive role in the desirable future of a society. The role of elites in future studies and scenario building is notable; they design national policies and strategies and have a significant impact in general public. Although future cannot be foretold by anyone, the interactions of advanced nations seem to be counter productive; they try to depict the futures. In this case, the futures are built, not predicted. The interactions of two or more systems at the level of international relations have been discussed in this paper. The imaginations of general public toward the futures are given in each society by using these analogies: railroad, river, sea and game. Therefore, the intervention of advanced nations may confront passive, harmonic, active, proactive and chaotic reaction in the other nations. We have discussed that undertaking proactive strategy is the best way to design national perspective.     

Nearly-singular design in GMM and generalized empirical likelihood estimators

Nearly-Singular design relaxes the nonsingularity assumption of the limit weight matrix in GMM, and the nonsingularity of the limit variance matrix for the first order conditions in GEL. The sample versions of these matrices are nonsingular, but in large samples we assume these sample matrices converge to a singular matrix. This can result in size distortions for the overidentifying restrictions test and large bias for the estimators. This nearly-singular design may occur because of the similar instruments in these matrices. We derive the large sample theory for GMM and GEL estimators under nearly-singular design. The rate of convergence of the estimators is slower than root n$n$.     

Impact of organizational and project factors on acceptance and usage of project management software and perceived project success

This study surveyed 497 participants to determine the factors that affect project professionals' acceptance of project management software and the perceived impact of software usage on their performance. The study finds that greater information quality and higher project complexity are the dominant factors explaining higher levels of system utilization, that greater system functionality and ease of use have a significant positive relationship with increased software usage, and that a strong positive relationship exists between higher usage of project management software and perceived project managers' improved performance. Inconsistent with prior research, more training was not found to be associated with project management software usage. The study explains more than 40% of the variation in project management software acceptance and adds project management software usage to project success factors by empirically confirming for the first time that project management software enhances project professionals' perceived performance and provides a positive impact on the results of their projects. The study provides practical implications for project professionals, their organizations, senior management, decision makers, software developers, and vendors. These findings support the call for further research that investigates the diffusion of information technologies in the project management field and their impact on project success and competitive position.     

External resources and economic growth: New evidence from EAGLE countries using PMG framework

This study attempts to explore the relationship between economic growth and external resources in the case of emerging and growth-leading economies (EAGLE). Among these economies, a panel of eight countries was studied over the period of 1986–2014. Empirical analyses were performed using panel cointegration and pooled mean group framework. Our findings support positive long- and short-run relationships between imports and gross domestic product (GDP). The results also reveal a negative and significant long-run relationship between foreign direct investment and GDP, whereas no significant evidence has been noted for the short run. Moreover, remittances in EAGLE countries have failed to justify any contribution to GDP in both long and short runs.     

Asymmetric and Time‐Varying Causality between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in G‐7 Countries

We use Granger causality tests within a conditional Gaussian Markov switching vector autoregressive (MS‐VAR) model using monthly data for G‐7 countries covering the period 1959:12–2008:10 to examine the relationship between inflation and inflation‐uncertainty. The MS‐VAR model allows us to model parameter time‐variation so as to reflect changes in Granger causality, assuming that these changes are stochastic and governed by an unobservable Markov chain. Inflation uncertainty is measured as the conditional variance generated by a Fractionally Integrated Smooth Transition Autoregressive Moving Average‐Asymmetric Power ARCH (FISTARMA‐APARCH) model. The distinguishing feature of our approach from the previous studies is the determination of the sign of the Granger causality relationship between inflation and its uncertainty over time. First, using a rolling VAR model, we show that the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty is time varying with frequent breaks. Second, using the MS‐VAR model, we obtain strong evidence in favour of the Holland's ‘stabilizing Fed hypothesis’ for Canada, France, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, and the United States. We also find evidence in favour of the Friedman hypothesis for Canada and the United States.     

Reinforcing Cultural Identity by Appealing to Local Cultural Cues: National Identity Formation and Consumption in High-Context Cultures

Traditionally, U.S. firms have successfully used American appeal (hard-sell approach) as a unique selling proposition in Europe, Japan and in the developing world. However, the anti-American sentiments around the world due to the Iraqi and Afghan wars and recent upheavals in the Middle East and North Africa have negatively influenced consumer judgments about American-labeled global brands in international markets during the last decade. Such consumer perceptions may lead to a favorable environment for new competitors to emerge in specific markets, and these products may take significant market share away from global U.S. brands.     

On the path of integration in the Gulf region

It is examined whether the six countries comprising the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are sufficiently compatible to form a viable economic and financial block in the Gulf region. Despite long and numerous governmental attempts since the mid 1980s, and in spite of public pressures to expedite the process, these countries have thus far failed to achieve full economic and financial integration. Empirical evidence suggests that this apparent failure is unlikely the outcome of economic or financial incompatibility among the countries in the region. The results imply that more efforts should be directed at resolving possible sociopolitical differences that may have hampered real progress toward the emergence of a genuine and effective bloc in the Gulf region.     

Market efficiency and international diversification: Evidence from India

This study evaluates one of the most important emerging markets, India (Bombay Stock Exchange and Indian National Exchange), for its efficiency and for its potential to offer diversification benefits to international investors. Market-wide tests include; 1) contemporaneous relationship, 2) Granger type causality and 3) day-of-the-week effect. Tests on individual Indian stocks include: 1) panel estimation of Granger causality, 2) stock-by-stock estimation of Granger causality and 3) runs test. In sum, Indian markets are well integrated with the international equity markets, a characteristic that lowers the international diversification benefits. While day-of-the-week effect is an international spillover, it may be possible to predict individual Indian stocks' returns through causality with international equity markets and through momentum trading techniques.