Geopolitical risks and stock market dynamics of the BRICS

This paper examines the effect of geopolitical uncertainty on return and volatility dynamics in the BRICS stock markets via nonparametric causality-in-quantiles tests. The effect of geopolitical risks (GPRs) is found to be heterogeneous across the BRICS stock markets, suggesting that news regarding geopolitical tensions do not affect return dynamics in these markets in a uniform way. GPRs are generally found to impact stock market volatility measures rather than returns, and often at return quantiles below the median, indicating the role of GPRs as a driver of bad volatility in these markets. While Russia bears the greatest risk exposure to GPRs in terms of both return and volatility, India is found to be the most resilient BRICS nation in the group. Noting that geopolitical shocks and in particular terrorist incidents are largely unanticipated, our findings underscore the importance of a strong financial sector that can help return the market to stability and an open economy that allows local investors to diversify country-specific risks in their portfolios.     

The effects of the military in politics on the inbound tourism: evidence from Turkey

In this paper, we analyze the effects of the military in politics on the number of tourist inflows from 71 countries to Turkey for the period from 1984 to 2014. We use the fixed-effects and the random-effects as well as the dynamic generalized methods of moments estimations. We find that a lower level of the relative military in politics (the difference between the source country and Turkey) positively affects the tourism inflows to Turkey. Specifically, one standard deviation reduction in the index of the relative military intervention in politics in Turkey leads to almost 7% increase in the tourism inflows.     

Impact of macroeconomic factors and country risk ratings on GCC stock markets: evidence from a dynamic panel threshold model with regime switching

This study examines the non-linear relationship between stock markets in GCC countries and their country risk ratings as well as with major macroeconomic factors. Based on a dynamic panel threshold model with two and four regimes, the results provide evidence of short-term asymmetry between first-lagged GCC stock returns and the performance of GCC stock markets. In addition, only the financial risk (FR) rating has a significant positive effect on the performance of GCC stock markets according to the prevailing regimes for the GCC lagged returns and the Brent oil market. Among the macroeconomic factors, improvements in the global stock markets, the MSCI Global Islamic Index, and the oil price increased the performance of GCC stock markets, whereas increases in the gold price, the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill rate, and the U.S. Treasury bond rate reduced the performance of the GCC stock markets. These results have important implications for investors, policymakers, and portfolio managers.     

Reconsideration of Economic Views of a Classical Empire and a Nation-State During the Mercantilist Ages

While the main aim of the economic policies of European nation-states was to use the power of the state to promote trade and economic growth and to build up national industries and manufacture, the Ottoman Empire continued to follow its provisionist, fiscalist, and traditional economic policies of land expansion in the early modern period. In Western Europe, this experience gave birth to a new class that gradually improved its trade ability and expanding industries and markets under a capitalist system. The Ottoman imperial policy was mostly concerned about the continuity of strong central authority and land expansion, which never meant improving the industry or trade concerns. Instead, the economic policies of the Ottomans were subsistence of the people, provisioning the major population centers, collection of taxes, and maintaining freedom of trade. The balance and stability in society explain the priority for the Ottomans in the economy. However, commercialization and profit explain the priority for the Dutch nation in the economy. This article elaborates the economic views of the Dutch Republic and the Ottoman Empire in the mercantilist ages.     

Engines of Liberation

Electricity was born at the dawn of the last century. Households were inundated with a flood of new consumer durables. What was the impact of this consumer durable goods revolution? It is argued here that the consumer goods revolution was conducive to liberating women from the home. To analyse this hypothesis, a Beckerian model of household production is developed. Households must decide whether or not to adopt the new technologies, and whether a married woman should work. Can such a model help to explain the rise in married female labour-force participation that occurred in the last century? Yes.     

On Creating and Claiming Value in Negotiations

This paper presents a negotiation model that includes value creation. It shows that creative negotiation efforts tend to intensify toward the deadline, and that the deadline is determined endogenously by the tension between two motives, creating more value and claiming from existing value. When the parties can present misleading offers in order to claim rather than create value, the outcome in early negotiation rounds may display an impasse where any proposal is rejected without inspection, while negotiation activities such as value creation through sincere offers and inspection of clauses intensify toward the deadline.     

The Power of Social Network Construction and Analysis for Knowledge Discovery in the Medical Referral Process

The social network model is powerful enough to provide for the analysis and study of a variety of application domains from daily life, including health care and health informatics. After the widespread appearance of automated tools capable of deriving and analyzing social networks, social network analysis (SNA) and mining in the health care domain has recently received considerable attention for its key role in understanding how various bodies within the health care system form communities and how they are socially connected with each other. This understanding helps enhance the organizational structures and process flows, among others. In this article, we show how SNA techniques can solve issues in the medical referral system in the Canadian health care system and the like, by analyzing the social network of general practitioners (GPs) and specialists (SPs). One of the main targets is to optimize the communication between GPs and SPs with hopes of decreasing the waiting time of patients to be seen by SPs. Various SNA and mining techniques are described and analyzed, backed by reporting some experimental results.     

Accurately Identifying and Comparing Sustainable Tourists,Nature-Based Tourists,and Ecotourists on the Basis of Their Environmental Concerns

The current study, using a confirmatory factor analysis, developed a multi-item scale consisting of 3 dimensions that exhibited necessary reliability and validity. Based on this Nature-Based, Eco- and Sustainable Tourists (NES)-scale, and by utilizing a cluster analysis, the study identifies 4 distinct segments among a sample of the Norwegian population: nature-based tourists, ecotourists, sustainable tourists, and mass tourists. The analysis shows that while the ecotourists make up the largest segment, the mass tourists represent the smallest segment. Using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), the resulting 4 segments are later compared on the basis of their environmental concerns. The findings suggest that the ecotourists are the most environmentally concerned whereas the mass tourists are the least environmentally concerned. Finally, based upon the overall findings of the study, a new inductive model is developed. This model highlights the interaction between different types of alternative tourists and mass tourists, by showing, inter alia, that nature-based tourism has over the years become a form of mass tourism. Theoretical and practical implications of the study are also discussed.