What cloud interoperability connotates for EU policy making: Recurrence of old problems or new ones looming on the horizon?

One of the key factors for a thriving cloud computing market is the ‘interoperability’ between the relevant hardware and software that govern the cloud services. While a complete interoperability means different cloud users being able to exchange the management tools, server images and other software, this is infrequently realised because users are locked into (proprietary) cloud ecosystems. This (problem of vendor lock-in) is potentially accompanied with another problem revolving around the content delivery networks being integrated with the distinct clouds along with possible harms to media pluralism as well as interoperability. In view of these concerns, this study focuses on competition law, standardisation and regulatory policies, and elaborates on to what extent cloud interoperability needs to be secured under EU legal fora. Overall, it is found that vendor lock-in might be attended by ‘coupling’ and complex ‘layering’ strategies, whereas efficiency and/or security based justifications would arise as the counter-balancing reasons. Based on the findings, the study concludes that while focusing on the vertical (i.e., vendor lock-in) concerns, a comprehensive viewpoint needs to be upheld, allowing efficiencies (i.e., proprietary enhancements) based on the architectural design and innovations, obviating narrowly-fashioned (i.e., foreclosure-based) interventions such as in Microsoft case. It is also underlined that cloud interoperability has a content dimension that would require a broader perspective, extending to horizontal concerns and requirements within the context of EU policy making strategies.     

Increasing return response to changes in risk

Risk aversion theory is based on an individual's choice among risky assets with expected utility in its foundation. It is about investor behavior (i.e., investor choice), under normal circumstances, toward assets with various levels of risk. A positive and marginally diminishing relationship between risk and return exists. This study is about investor behavior related to their response (not choice) to risk. We present an argument and supporting evidence that investors’ return response to risk is increasing with the level of risk. Thus, investor behavior is subject to change and the level of risk is a determinant of such change. We also explain the negative time‐series correlation between risk and return.     

Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Predict Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility? Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test

Recent studies have analysed the ability of measures of uncertainty to predict movements in macroeconomic and financial variables. The objective of this paper is to employ the recently proposed nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test to analyse the predictability of returns and volatility of sixteen U.S. dollar-based exchange rates (for both developed and developing countries) over the monthly period of 1999:01–2012:03, based on information provided by a news-based measure of relative uncertainty, i.e., the differential between domestic and U.S. uncertainties. The causality-in-quantile approach allows us to test for not only causality-in-mean (1st moment), but also causality that may exist in the tails of the joint distribution of the variables. In addition, we are also able to investigate causality-in-variance (volatility spillovers) when causality in the conditional-mean may not exist, yet higher order interdependencies might emerge. We motivate our analysis by employing tests for nonlinearity. These tests detect nonlinearity, as well as the existence of structural breaks in the exchange rate returns, and in its relationship with the EPU differential, implying that the Granger causality tests based on a linear framework is likely to suffer from misspecification. The results of our nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test indicate that for seven exchange rates EPU differentials have a causal impact on the variance of exchange rate returns but not on the returns themselves at all parts of the conditional distribution. We also find that EPU differentials have predictive ability for both exchange rate returns as well as the return variance over the entire conditional distribution for four exchange rates.     

50+ Years of Diversification Announcements

This paper studies announcement returns from 4,764 mergers over 57 years to shed light on several controversies concerning corporate diversification. One prominent view is that diversification destroys value because of agency problems or internal investment distortions, but we find that combined (acquirer plus target) announcement returns are significantly positive for diversifying mergers throughout the period, and no lower than the returns for related mergers. The returns from diversifying acquisitions fell after 1980, and investors rewarded mergers involving financially constrained firms before but not after 1980, consistent with the idea that the value of internal capital markets declined over time.     

The determinants of Turkey's exports to Islamic countries: The impact of political risks

Using the traditional gravity model, this paper aims to analyze the determinants of Turkish exports to 43 Islamic Development Bank member countries for the period from 1996 to 2015. The paper specifically investigates the effects of 12 political risk measures (bureaucracy quality, corruption, democratic accountability, government stability, internal and external conflict, investment profile, law and order, military in politics, religious and ethnic tensions, and socioeconomic conditions) in the importing countries on the total volume of exports of Turkey. After implementing various robustness checks, the paper finds that the government instability in the importing countries is negatively associated with the Turkish exports.     

Causal effects of the United States and Japan on Pacific-Rim stock markets: nonparametric quantile causality approach

This article adopts a nonparametric quantile causality approach to examine the causal effects of the U.S. and Japan stock markets on the stock markets of the Pacific-Rim region. This approach allows us to detect not only nonlinear causalities in conditional return (mean) and conditional volatility (variance) but also the asymmetries of causalities under extreme market conditions (bullish vs. bearish states). Our results provide significant evidence of causality in return and volatility at different points of the conditional distributions of returns, with the greater effects from the U.S. than from Japan. Asymmetric quantile causality patterns are particularly pronounced in the case of Japan.     

Did Baltic stock markets offer diversification benefits during the recent financial turmoil? Novel evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test

Motivated by financial liberalization investors seek for new investment opportunities through international portfolio diversification. To this end we explore any asymmetric causal relationship between developed European stock markets (Germany, France and UK) and emerging Baltic markets namely; Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Our analysis focuses on the period before and after countries’ EU accession and pre- and post the global financial crisis. For this purpose, both the standard parametric test for causality and a novel nonparametric test for causality-in-quantiles are employed. The results of both the parametric and nonparametric Granger causality test support a causal relationship in mean that runs from all of the major markets to the Baltic markets across both samples. The results imply the existence of significant nonlinear return and volatility spillover from European markets to Baltic markets. Policy implications for international investors are also discussed.     

Monetary shocks,exchange rates and trade balances: Evidence from inflation targeting countries

This paper investigates the relationship among monetary policy shocks, exchange rates and trade balances in five Inflation Targeting Countries (ITCs). The investigation is based on Structural Vector Error Correction Models (SVECMs) with long run and short run restrictions. The findings reveal that a contractionary monetary policy shock leads to a decrease in price level, a decrease in output, an appreciation in exchange rate, and an improvement in trade balance in the very short run. Our findings contradict the findings of price, output, exchange rate and trade puzzles that have been found in many empirical studies. Furthermore they are consistent with the theoretical expectations regarding the effect of a contractionary policy. The only long run restriction that we imposed on our models is that money does not affect real macroeconomic variables in the long run, which is consistent with both Keynesian and monetarist approaches.     

Import-content of exports and J-curve effect

This article investigates how the response to devaluation of trade balance is affected, compared to J-curve hypothesis, by the presence of imported inputs in the production of exports. Using first the Almon lag technique and then the cointegration and the generalized impulse response function analysis, the J-curve effect is examined in two sectors of Turkish economy (manufacturing and mining), which use imported inputs at different rates. Based on the data covering the period from the first quarter of 1986 to the third quarter of 1998, our results indicate that in neither sector J-curve exists and that the violation of the J-curve effect is more severe in the sector with higher import content     

Asset prices and expected monetary policy: evidence from daily data

This article explores the relationships among Libor, gold prices, the exchange rate, oil prices, fed funds futures prices and stock prices at a daily frequency. This article examines whether expected monetary policy, measured by changes in the prices of fed funds futures contracts, reacts to high frequency changes in asset prices and, in turn, whether asset prices respond to changes in expected monetary policy. The article reveals that there are statistically significant relationships between expected US monetary policy and shocks to Libor and exchange rates. It also reveals that there is no evidence of a systematic relationship between stock prices and expected monetary policy changes. Splitting the data into expansionary and recessionary periods using NBER dating, we find results for the expansionary periods that are very similar to the results for the entire period. For the periods of recession, we find little evidence of significant linkages between markets.