Global Spillovers of China's Monetary Policy

Spillovers from China's monetary policy have become increasingly obvious with China's growing importance in the global economy and its close economic and trade ties with the world. This study establishes a proxy structure vector autoregression model to investigate the magnitude and transmission channel of spillovers from China to global and regional economies, taking advantage of high-frequency changes in asset prices in the financial markets to identify monetary policy shocks. The analysis reveals that China's monetary policy can affect the global economy by influencing international trade and commodity prices but there is no evidence of China's monetary policy affecting global financial variables. Tightness in China's monetary policy can cause a decline in world output whereas expansion in monetary policy can support global trade and output. This study also finds that the response of emerging Asian economies to China's monetary policy shock was nearly twice that of developed economies, while the transmission path did not change. The results of this study are consistent with the stylized fact that China's monetary policy plays an important role in the global trade and commodity cycle, although it does not drive the global financial cycle.     

Predicting foreign exchange movements using historic deviations from PPP

The ability to forecast FX rates from historical exchange rate movements is examined. An eight nation study shows a currency's deviation from the rate predicted by PPP over a four year period can predict the direction of its movement in the subsequent one to four years. We show short term exchange rate movements of freely floating currencies are large in comparison with changes in economic fundamentals and these movements accumulate to create pressure which results in a predictable pattern of reversal. The results are robust across currencies and relatively insensitive to the time parameters used in the estimation.     

浅谈大棚西瓜高产栽培法

本文浅谈了大棚西瓜高产栽焙法.     

产业集群中的创业要素与创业活动分析

产业集群中蕴含了丰富的创业要素,如创业机会、创业资源和潜在的创业者。其中,集群的外部性、网络关系和专业化分工易于产生创业机会,外部性、网络关系和区位优势易于产生创业资源,而集群软环境、创业机会吸引资源支持,容易催生创业者。所以,创业要素充沛的产业集群内创业活跃,产业集群是重要的创业空间。据此,将现有的产业集群与创业关系研究纳入了创业理论研究范畴,构建的理论模型也为创业实践提供了新思路和可操作的工具。     

论机动车保险中高风险车辆的风险管理

高风险车辆赔付率的高低对机动车保险业务的经营效益有极大的影响,是保险公司风险管理的重点。按照风险管理的基本原理,保险公司应从风险规避、风险转移和风险控制三个方面着手,采取适当措施,加强对高风险车辆的风险管理,降低赔付率,保证业务的稳定性。不仅如此,由于风险具有可变性,实施风险管理不能一成不变,必须根据风险变化的情形随时加以调整和修改,按照科学的程序进行。     

消费信用中的个人征信问题探析

近年来,消费信贷在我国发展迅速,但个人征信制度的不完善已成为制约消费信贷发展的瓶颈.建立个人征信体系,发展消费信用,应从完善征信的法制环境、加强政府的协调与扶持、完善公共征信数据库、统一个人信用评估标准等方面入手.     

从古代书院教育的特点看我国当代高等教育

中国书院自产生以来,就表现出蓬勃的生命力.书院作为一种十分成熟完善的文化教育组织,是中国古代教育高度发展的结果,它继承并发扬了中国古代优良的教育传统.我国当代高等教育有必要在办学模式、教育体系、教育精神等方面,借鉴古代书院教育的优良传统.     

萄业银行改制上市后内部审计体制和模式的思考

商业银行成为上市银行，就意味着要直接面对国际国内的公众投资者，逐步完善公司治理结构，以符合外部监管的要求，而内部审计是公司治理结构的重要组成部分，因此，如何创新商业银行的内部审计体制和模式，更好地发挥内部审计在商业银行公司治理结构中的作用，是我国商业银行理论者和实践者需要认真思考的一个重要课题。     

辩证的减税观与我国减税的可行性分析

科学技术革命所带来的高速发展的生产力和与之相联系的迅速膨胀的社会财富给减税创造了空间,奠定了扩大税基的物质基础。当代减税政策具有战略性,其作用具有持续性,是刺激经济增长的主要政策工具。我国稳健的财政政策与减税并不矛盾。我国经济持续、稳定增长为减税创造了空间。     

Conditional Risk Premiums of Asian Real Estate Stocks

This paper uses a multi-factor latent variable model to examine the time variation of expected returns on Asian property stocks. Using data from 1990 to 1997, we found strong evidence of time-varying risk premium, suggesting property development based on constant discount rate may underestimate the cost of capital. A further study using a multi-country model suggests that conditional excess returns of many crisis-stricken economies appear to move quite closely with each other. This supports the hypothesis that the risk premiums in these Asian markets move closely over time As a result, they provide a partial explanation of market contagion in the region.